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1 – 10 of 105The purpose of this paper is to quantify and analyze the relative impact of agriculture Trade liberalization and South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) over the global economic…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to quantify and analyze the relative impact of agriculture Trade liberalization and South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) over the global economic welfare. The objectives are to analyze and quantify the potential economic cost and benefits of the prospective trade between India and Pakistan to consumers, producers and government of the two countries by analyzing the potential economic costs and benefits of Pak‐India trade in exporting various consumer goods.
Design/methodology/approach
The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database is the database for the GTAP model of the world economy, which is publicly available. The main data source for this model is “The GTAP 4 Data Base” which is easy to adapt to appropriate sectoral and regional aggregations that allow one to focus on specific policy questions. The regional databases in the model are derived from individual country input‐output (I/O) tables that provide information about the individual regional economies in the model. The bilateral trade data are primarily derived from the United Nations Commodity Trade database. The economic research service (ERS) of the United States Department of Agriculture supplies the missing information in the UN trade data.
Findings
The first scenario is when normal trading relations with India will be restored; it means that each country will give the most‐favored‐nations (MFN) status to the other. In the second scenario, the SAFTA will be operative, and there will be free trade between India and Pakistan, and both countries will remove all tariffs and custom duties from each other's imports. The GTAP model is used to analyze the possible impact of SAFTA on Pakistan in a multi‐country, multi‐sector applied general equilibrium framework.
Originality/value
The analysis based on simulations reveals that current demand for Pakistani consumer items will expand after the free trade agreement (FTA) and consumer surplus will increase. The export of consumer items may be conducted by two scenarios, i.e. when normal trading relations between Pakistan and India will be restored and when there will be a free trade between Pakistan and India in the presence of SAFTA. Results based on this research reveal that, on SAFTA grounds, there will be net export benefits in Pakistan's economy.
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In this paper, we evaluated the impact of the US “Chip Act” on the participation of the Chinese electronics industry in the global value chain based on the dynamic CGE model. This…
Abstract
Purpose
In this paper, we evaluated the impact of the US “Chip Act” on the participation of the Chinese electronics industry in the global value chain based on the dynamic CGE model. This is a meaningful attempt to use the GTAP-VA model to analyze the electronics industry in China.
Design/methodology/approach
We employ a Dynamic GTAP-VA Model to quantitatively evaluate the economic repercussions of the “Chip Act” on the Chinese electronic industries' GVC participation from 2023 to 2040.
Findings
The findings depict a discernible contraction in China’s electronic sector by 2040, marked by a −2.95% change in output, a −3.50% alteration in exports and a 0.45% increment in imports. Concurrently, the U.S., EU and certain Asian economies exhibit expansions within the electronic sector, indicating a GVC realignment. The “Chip Act” implementation precipitates a significant divergence in GVC participation across different countries and industries, notably impacting the electronics sector.
Research limitations/implications
Through a meticulous temporal analysis, this manuscript unveils the nuanced economic shifts within the GVC, substantially bridging the empirical void in existing literature. This narrative accentuates the profound implications of policy regulations on global trade dynamics, contributing to the discourse on international economic policy and industry evolution.
Practical implications
We evaluated the impact of the US “Chip Act” on the participation of the Chinese electronics industry in the global value chain based on the dynamic CGE model. This is a meaningful attempt to use the GTAP-VA model to analyze the electronics industry in China.
Social implications
The interaction between policy regulations and global value chain (GVC) dynamics is pivotal in understanding the contemporary global trade framework, especially within technology-driven sectors. The US “Chips Act” represents a significant regulatory milestone with potential ramifications on the Chinese electronic industries' engagement in the GVC.
Originality/value
The significance of this paper is that it quantifies for the first time the impact of the US Chip Act on the GVC participation index of East Asian countries in the context of US-China decoupling. With careful consideration of strategic aspects, this paper substantially fills the empirical gap in the existing literature by presenting subtle economic changes within GVCs, highlighting the profound implications of policy regulation on global trade dynamics.
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The aim of this paper is to deal with the linkage between agricultural trade liberalization and food security in Sub‐Saharan Africa.
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this paper is to deal with the linkage between agricultural trade liberalization and food security in Sub‐Saharan Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis uses the GTAP model which is a global dynamic applied general equilibrium model to assess how the multifarious trade and support policies in agriculture affect the poor in the Sub‐Saharan African group based on food security concerns. The policy strategies analyzed are two liberalization scenarios based on the proposals made in the present round of agricultural negotiations in terms of market access and export competition, plus a free agricultural trade benchmark scenario.
Findings
The results of alternative trade liberalization strategies on key food security indicators in the SSA region are ambiguous. The impact varies depending on the extent of liberalization and also the comparative advantage of the SSA group at the sectoral level.
Originality/value
Despite several studies on food security, especially after the food crisis in 2008, very little research has focussed on the agricultural trade liberalization impact with a CGE approach.
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Chanwahn Kim, Mohammad Masudur Rahman and Laila Arjuman Ara
– The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential economic effects of the proposed Bangladesh-India free trade agreement (FTA).
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential economic effects of the proposed Bangladesh-India free trade agreement (FTA).
Design/methodology/approach
The authors have used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database. The analysis highlights the possible costs and benefits of the two nations within three different scenarios. Under Scenario I all bilateral import tariffs between Bangladesh and India are removed; Scenario II represents the setting where Bangladesh cuts its all tariffs by 75 and in Scenario III Bangladesh cuts tariffs by 50 percent. India cuts all their tariffs by 100 percent in all three scenarios.
Findings
The findings indicate that India may gain more in terms of welfare and real GDP via the improved terms of trade while Bangladesh is going to have welfare loss, but if Bangladesh is able to make a preferential FTA like Scenario III with India its welfare, real GDP and exports will be increased substantially.
Originality/value
This paper is the first-ever attempt to estimate the effect of the proposed Bangladesh-India FTA using CGE analysis of GTAP database version 7.
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Since it is difficult for researchers to access data for the North Korean economy, they typically choose a proxy economy for estimating the economic impact of the unification of…
Abstract
Since it is difficult for researchers to access data for the North Korean economy, they typically choose a proxy economy for estimating the economic impact of the unification of the two Koreas using a computational general equilibrium (CGE). This paper aims to identify the best proxy economy for North Korea out of the 140 economies (countries) in the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database version 9.1, which was published in mid-2015. (Ed- if your study aim is ‘to identify the best proxy economy for North Korea’, then you must state your study finding here in the abstract, and also in the conclusion, i.e., Romania) This paper evaluates the input-output (IO) tables for the North Korean economy in existing studies. Comparing the coefficients for North Korea in existing studies with those of the countries selected for this paper, substantial differences were found, especially for the services sector. This casts some doubt on the IO tables in the existing studies on the North Korean economy.
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Paul T-W Lee, Tsung-Chen Lee and Tzu-Han Yang
This paper aims to explore the impacts of the recent development of Korean free trade agreements (FTAs) on its seaborne trade volumes. The paper firstly estimates the changes in…
Abstract
This paper aims to explore the impacts of the recent development of Korean free trade agreements (FTAs) on its seaborne trade volumes. The paper firstly estimates the changes in cargo value flows caused by Korea-EU FTA, Korea-USA FTA and Korea-ASEAN FTA using a global computable general equilibrium model named Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and its most recent database - version 7 with 2004 as the base year. Then a set of systematic conversion factors transferring trade value flows to volume flows of different types of commodities is calibrated according to the United Nations COMTRADE database and is used to convert the GTAP trade value flows into volume flows. Having indentified maritime cargo flows by different commodity types, this paper attempts to draw implications for maritime logistics policy in order to facilitate the trade of Korean merchandises and to propose key competitive strategy for the maritime container transport networking and logistics service providers in the Korean logistics industry.
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This study aims to empirically investigate the potential impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on US textile and apparel manufacturing.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to empirically investigate the potential impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on US textile and apparel manufacturing.
Design/methodology/approach
This study adopts the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model based on the latest GTAP9 database.
Findings
The findings of the study suggest that: the “yarn-forward” rule will not work effectively in the context of TPP; and the development of Vietnam’s local textile industry is a critical threat to the survival of US textile and apparel (T&A) manufacturing in the long run.
Originality/value
The findings of the study augment the understanding of the T&A-specific sectoral impact of TPP and address the particular concerns of the US T&A manufacturers with regard to the new business environment and the possible scenarios after the implementation of the agreement.
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Lazaros Antonios Chatzilazarou and Dimitrios Dadakas
This study deals with changes in European Union's (EU's) trade potential in Machinery (HS 84–85) and Transportation (HS86-89) products.
Abstract
Purpose
This study deals with changes in European Union's (EU's) trade potential in Machinery (HS 84–85) and Transportation (HS86-89) products.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses a Structural Gravity model, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation together with panel data for the years 2002–2018 and a two-step procedure that employs predicted values of bilateral trade to compare potential to actual trade.
Findings
Results for Machinery products suggest a potential to expand trade with existing Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) in the American continent, and countries of the IGAD region in Africa. In Transportation, a high trade potential with RTAs is found in the Americas, Africa and the Middle East. Policy suggestions concentrate on opportunities for enhancing trade relations through trade liberalization and agreement proliferation.
Originality/value
There are no studies to date, that examine “collective” measure of EU trade potential, that treats the EU as a single country. Changes in existing opportunities to expand trade, common for EU members, are of special interest for policy formulation, especially after the recent turmoil presented by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Greek Economic Crisis (GEC). Treating the EU as a single entity, is necessary for the formulation of an effective, common, EU trade policy. This study concentrates on the manufacturing sector to examine existing opportunities for the EU to expand trade, after the GFC and the GEC. This article deals with Machinery (HS 84 and 85) and Transportation (HS 86 through 89) products as they comprise a significant part of total EU exports, reaching 41% of total exports in 2016. Finally, this study offers a unique illustration of results through trade potential heat maps.
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Inkyo Cheong and Kamonchanok Suthiwartnarueput
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the economic impact of reducing logistics cost on the demand for port throughput in the context of Association of Southeast Asian Nations’…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the economic impact of reducing logistics cost on the demand for port throughput in the context of Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) regional economic integration and to realize the potential economic gains of the maritime logistics reform in the region.
Design/methodology/approach
The main part of this paper is to formulate conversion coefficients for containerized cargo to estimate the impacts of logistics reform on the demand for port throughput. These conversion coefficients, then have been used into a dynamic computational general equilibrium model using Global Trade Analysis Project database to explore the impact of logistics cost.
Findings
The study demonstrates that logistics efficiency is a challenge for ASEAN economic integration, providing significant implications for maritime logistics reforms.
Research limitations/implications
This study assumes uniform improvements of 5 and 10 percent in the logistics sector for all countries due to lack of detailed data on the logistics sectors in ASEAN countries.
Practical implications
The findings of this study could help ASEAN policymakers for deeper understanding of efficient maritime logistics in realizing the economic gains from its regional economic integration initiatives.
Originality/value
Although there are many descriptive studies on the importance of logistics efficiency in improving international competitiveness in a country or a region, these are not supported by quantitative assessment in the case of ASEAN. This study addresses the dearth of empirical evidence based on real data on trade and maritime cargo flows. This study contributes to highlighting that ASEAN countries should reform their logistics policies and practices.
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Ken'ichi Matsumoto and Toshihiko Masui
The purpose of this study is to analyze long‐term (up to 2100) impacts of carbon tax based on the imputed price of carbon (ICT) from environmental and economic perspectives.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to analyze long‐term (up to 2100) impacts of carbon tax based on the imputed price of carbon (ICT) from environmental and economic perspectives.
Design/methodology/approach
ICT is an international tax with tax rates that differ among countries according to their economic levels. It is evaluated by comparing it with an internationally common carbon tax (CCT), applying the AIM/CGE [Global] model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The ICT rates are determined from a certain formula and the CCT rates are set to achieve global GDP changes equal to the case of ICT.
Findings
According to the results, the world CO2 abatement amount is almost the same between the two taxes. However, the economic impact on each country is different. Although the negative influence is smaller in the case of CCT in developed countries, it is smaller in the case of ICT in developing countries. Moreover, ICT narrows economic disparities among developed and developing countries further. In the light of significance of the worldwide introduction of CO2 abatement policies and avoidance of excessive economic burdens on developing countries, it is concluded that ICT is a more feasible carbon tax policy than CCT.
Originality/value
Although the impacts of ICT have been analyzed from static and mid‐term perspectives, understanding the long‐term dynamic impacts is still essential, considering the features of the tax and possible socioeconomic and technological changes, especially in developing countries. This study proposes a new policy method that will contribute to efforts to combat climate change in the long run.