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1 – 10 of 118Iman Ghalehkhondabi, Ehsan Ardjmand, William A. Young and Gary R. Weckman
The purpose of this paper is to review the current literature in the field of tourism demand forecasting.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to review the current literature in the field of tourism demand forecasting.
Design/methodology/approach
Published papers in the high quality journals are studied and categorized based their used forecasting method.
Findings
There is no forecasting method which can develop the best forecasts for all of the problems. Combined forecasting methods are providing better forecasts in comparison to the traditional forecasting methods.
Originality/value
This paper reviews the available literature from 2007 to 2017. There is not such a review available in the literature.
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Li Xuemei, Yun Cao, Junjie Wang, Yaoguo Dang and Yin Kedong
Research on grey systems is becoming more sophisticated, and grey relational and prediction analyses are receiving close review worldwide. Particularly, the application of grey…
Abstract
Purpose
Research on grey systems is becoming more sophisticated, and grey relational and prediction analyses are receiving close review worldwide. Particularly, the application of grey systems in marine economics is gaining importance. The purpose of this paper is to summarize and review literature on grey models, providing new directions in their application in the marine economy.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper organized seminal studies on grey systems published by Chinese core journal database – CNKI, Web of Science and Elsevier from 1982 to 2018. After searching the aforementioned database for the said duration, the authors used the CiteSpace visualization tools to analyze them.
Findings
The authors sorted the studies according to their countries/regions, institutions, keywords and categories using the CiteSpace tool; analyzed current research characteristics on grey models; and discussed their possible applications in marine businesses, economy, scientific research and education, marine environment and disasters. Finally, the authors pointed out the development trend of grey models.
Originality/value
Although researches are combining grey theory with fractals, neural networks, fuzzy theory and other methods, the applications, in terms of scope, have still not met the demand. With the increasingly in-depth research in marine economics and management, international marine economic research has entered a new period of development. Grey theory will certainly attract scholars’ attention, and its role in marine economy and management will gain considerable significance.
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Mei-Ling Cheng, Ching-Wu Chu and Hsiu-Li Hsu
This paper aims to compare different univariate forecasting methods to provide a more accurate short-term forecasting model on the crude oil price for rendering a reference to…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to compare different univariate forecasting methods to provide a more accurate short-term forecasting model on the crude oil price for rendering a reference to manages.
Design/methodology/approach
Six different univariate methods, namely the classical decomposition model, the trigonometric regression model, the regression model with seasonal dummy variables, the grey forecast, the hybrid grey model and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), have been used.
Findings
The authors found that the grey forecast is a reliable forecasting method for crude oil prices.
Originality/value
The contribution of this research study is using a small size of data and comparing the forecasting results of the six univariate methods. Three commonly used evaluation criteria, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE), were adopted to evaluate the model performance. The outcome of this work can help predict the crude oil price.
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Ahmad Hariri, Pedro Domingues and Paulo Sampaio
This paper aims to classify journal papers in the context of hybrid quality function deployment QFD and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods published during 2004–2021.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to classify journal papers in the context of hybrid quality function deployment QFD and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods published during 2004–2021.
Design/methodology/approach
A conceptual classification scheme is presented to analyze the hybrid QFD-MCDM methods. Then some recommendations are given to introduce directions for future research.
Findings
The results show that among all related areas, the manufacturing application has the most frequency of published papers regarding hybrid QFD-MCDM methods. Moreover, using uncertainty to establish a hybrid QFD-MCDM the relevant papers have been considered during the time interval 2004–2021.
Originality/value
There are various shortcomings in conventional QFD which limit its efficiency and potential applications. Since 2004, when MCDM methods were frequently adopted in the quality management context, increasing attention has been drawn from both practical and academic perspectives. Recently, the integration of MCDM techniques into the QFD model has played an important role in designing new products and services, supplier selection, green manufacturing systems and sustainability topics. Hence, this survey reviewed hybrid QFD-MCDM methods during 2004–2021.
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Dharyll Prince Mariscal Abellana, Donna Marie Canizares Rivero, Ma. Elena Aparente and Aries Rivero
This paper aims to propose a hybrid-forecasting model for long-term tourism demand forecasting. As such, it attempts to model the tourism demand in the Philippines, which is a…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to propose a hybrid-forecasting model for long-term tourism demand forecasting. As such, it attempts to model the tourism demand in the Philippines, which is a relatively underrepresented area in the literature, despite its tourism sector’s growing economic progress.
Design/methodology/approach
A hybrid support vector regression (SVR) – seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages (SARIMA) model is proposed to model the seasonal, linear and nonlinear components of the tourism demand in a destination country. The paper further proposes the use of multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) approaches in selecting the best forecasting model among a set of considered models. As such, a preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE) II is used to rank the considered forecasting models.
Findings
The proposed hybrid SVR-SARIMA model is the best performing model among a set of considered models in this paper using performance criteria that evaluate the errors of magnitude, directionality and trend change, of a forecasting model. Moreover, the use of the MCDM approach is found to be a relevant and prospective approach in selecting the best forecasting model among a set of models.
Originality/value
The novelty of this paper lies in several aspects. First, this paper pioneers the demonstration of the SVR-SARIMA model’s capability in forecasting long-term tourism demand. Second, this paper is the first to have proposed and demonstrated the use of an MCDM approach for performing model selection in forecasting. Finally, this paper is one of the very few papers to provide lenses on the current status of Philippine tourism demand.
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Muhammad Zahir Khan and Muhammad Farid Khan
A significant number of studies have been conducted to analyze and understand the relationship between gas emissions and global temperature using conventional statistical…
Abstract
Purpose
A significant number of studies have been conducted to analyze and understand the relationship between gas emissions and global temperature using conventional statistical approaches. However, these techniques follow assumptions of probabilistic modeling, where results can be associated with large errors. Furthermore, such traditional techniques cannot be applied to imprecise data. The purpose of this paper is to avoid strict assumptions when studying the complex relationships between variables by using the three innovative, up-to-date, statistical modeling tools: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and fuzzy time series models.
Design/methodology/approach
These three approaches enabled us to effectively represent the relationship between global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector (oil, gas and coal) and the average global temperature increase. Temperature was used in this study (1900-2012). Investigations were conducted into the predictive power and performance of different fuzzy techniques against conventional methods and among the fuzzy techniques themselves.
Findings
A performance comparison of the ANFIS model against conventional techniques showed that the root means square error (RMSE) of ANFIS and conventional techniques were found to be 0.1157 and 0.1915, respectively. On the other hand, the correlation coefficients of ANN and the conventional technique were computed to be 0.93 and 0.69, respectively. Furthermore, the fuzzy-based time series analysis of CO2 emissions and average global temperature using three fuzzy time series modeling techniques (Singh, Abbasov–Mamedova and NFTS) showed that the RMSE of fuzzy and conventional time series models were 110.51 and 1237.10, respectively.
Social implications
The paper provides more awareness about fuzzy techniques application in CO2 emissions studies.
Originality/value
These techniques can be extended to other models to assess the impact of CO2 emission from other sectors.
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