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1 – 10 of over 3000Mohammad Reza Fathi, Hamid Rahimi and Mehrzad Minouei
The main purpose of this paper is to predicate financial distress using the worst-practice-frontier data envelopment analysis (WPF-DEA) model and artificial neural network.
Abstract
Purpose
The main purpose of this paper is to predicate financial distress using the worst-practice-frontier data envelopment analysis (WPF-DEA) model and artificial neural network.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, a neural network technique was used to forecast inputs and outputs in the future time-period. Using a WPF-DEA model, financially distressed companies were identified based on the worst performance, and an improvement solution was provided for those decision-making units.
Findings
This study’s findings show that dynamic WPF-DEA has high predictability in corporate financial distress, and it can be used with high confidence. Based on the future time-period results, JOUSH & OXYGEN was predicted to be a financially distressed company in the two future time-periods.
Originality/value
In recent decades, globalization, technological changes and a competitive space have increased uncertainty in the economic environment. In such circumstances, economic growth certainly depends on correct decision-making and optimal allocation of resources. It can be done by introducing appropriate tools and models for assessing corporate financial conditions, including financial distress and bankruptcy.
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Khaled Halteh, Kuldeep Kumar and Adrian Gepp
Financial distress is a socially and economically important problem that affects companies the world over. Having the power to better understand – and hence aid businesses from…
Abstract
Purpose
Financial distress is a socially and economically important problem that affects companies the world over. Having the power to better understand – and hence aid businesses from failing, has the potential to save not only the company, but also potentially prevent economies from sustained downturn. Although Islamic banks constitute a fraction of total banking assets, their importance have been substantially increasing, as their asset growth rate has surpassed that of conventional banks in recent years. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses a data set comprising 101 international publicly listed Islamic banks to work on advancing financial distress prediction (FDP) by utilising cutting-edge stochastic models, namely decision trees, stochastic gradient boosting and random forests. The most important variables pertaining to forecasting corporate failure are determined from an initial set of 18 variables.
Findings
The results indicate that the “Working Capital/Total Assets” ratio is the most crucial variable relating to forecasting financial distress using both the traditional “Altman Z-Score” and the “Altman Z-Score for Service Firms” methods. However, using the “Standardised Profits” method, the “Return on Revenue” ratio was found to be the most important variable. This provides empirical evidence to support the recommendations made by Basel Accords for assessing a bank’s capital risks, specifically in relation to the application to Islamic banking.
Originality/value
These findings provide a valuable addition to the limited literature surrounding Islamic banking in general, and FDP pertaining to Islamic banking in particular, by showcasing the most pertinent variables in forecasting financial distress so that appropriate proactive actions can be taken.
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Suzaida Bakar and Bany Ariffin Amin Noordin
Dynamic predictions of financial distress of the firms have received less attention in finance literature rather than static prediction, specifically in Malaysia. This study…
Abstract
Dynamic predictions of financial distress of the firms have received less attention in finance literature rather than static prediction, specifically in Malaysia. This study, therefore, investigates dynamic symptoms of the financial distress event a few years before it happened to the firms by using neural network method. Cox Proportional Hazard regression models are used to estimate the survival probabilities of Malaysian PN17 and GN3 listed firms. Forecast accuracy is evaluated using receiver operating characteristics curve. From the findings, it shown that the independent directors’ ownership has negative association with the financial distress likelihood. In addition, this study modeled a mix of corporate financial distress predictors for Malaysian firms. The combination of financial and non-financial ratios which pressure-sensitive institutional ownership, independent director ownership, and Earnings Before Interest and Taxes to Total Asset shown a negative relationship with financial distress likelihood specifically one year before the firms being listed in PN 17 and GN 3 status. However, Retained Earnings to Total Asset, Interest Coverage, and Market Value of Debt have positive relationship with firm financial distress likelihood. These research findings also contribute to the policy implications to the Securities Commission and specifically to Bursa Malaysia. Furthermore, one of the initial goals in introducing the PN17 and GN3 status is to alleviate the information asymmetry between distressed firms, the regulators, and investors. Therefore, the regulator would be able to monitor effectively distressed firms, and investors can protect from imprudent investment.
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Ehsanul Hassan, Muhammad Awais-E-Yazdan, Ramona Birau, Peter Wanke and Yong Aaron Tan
This study aims to develop a robust predictive model for anticipating financial distress within Pakistani companies, providing a crucial tool for proactive economic turbulence…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to develop a robust predictive model for anticipating financial distress within Pakistani companies, providing a crucial tool for proactive economic turbulence management.
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve this objective, the study examines a comprehensive data set comprising nonfinancial firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange from 2005 to 2022. It investigates 23 financial ratios categorized under profitability, liquidity, leverage, asset efficiency, size and growth.
Findings
The study reveals that financial ratio indices are more effective in forecasting financial distress compared to individual ratios. These indices achieve impressive accuracy rates, ranging from a robust 93.90% in the first year leading up to bankruptcy to a commendable 73.71% in the fifth year. Furthermore, the research identifies profitability, liquidity, leverage, asset efficiency, size and growth as pivotal indicators for financial distress prediction.
Originality/value
This research underscores the utility and practicality of financial ratio indices, offering a comprehensive perspective on risk assessment and management. In conclusion, this pioneering study provides valuable insights into financial distress prediction, highlighting the enhanced information capture made possible by financial ratio indices. It equips stakeholders in the Pakistan Stock Exchange with an effective means to proactively address financial risks.
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Manpreet Kaur, Amit Kumar and Anil Kumar Mittal
In past decades, artificial neural network (ANN) models have revolutionised various stock market operations due to their superior ability to deal with nonlinear data and garnered…
Abstract
Purpose
In past decades, artificial neural network (ANN) models have revolutionised various stock market operations due to their superior ability to deal with nonlinear data and garnered considerable attention from researchers worldwide. The present study aims to synthesize the research field concerning ANN applications in the stock market to a) systematically map the research trends, key contributors, scientific collaborations, and knowledge structure, and b) uncover the challenges and future research areas in the field.
Design/methodology/approach
To provide a comprehensive appraisal of the extant literature, the study adopted the mixed approach of quantitative (bibliometric analysis) and qualitative (intensive review of influential articles) assessment to analyse 1,483 articles published in the Scopus and Web of Science indexed journals during 1992–2022. The bibliographic data was processed and analysed using VOSviewer and R software.
Findings
The results revealed the proliferation of articles since 2018, with China as the dominant country, Wang J as the most prolific author, “Expert Systems with Applications” as the leading journal, “computer science” as the dominant subject area, and “stock price forecasting” as the predominantly explored research theme in the field. Furthermore, “portfolio optimization”, “sentiment analysis”, “algorithmic trading”, and “crisis prediction” are found as recently emerged research areas.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study is a novel attempt that holistically assesses the existing literature on ANN applications throughout the entire domain of stock market. The main contribution of the current study lies in discussing the challenges along with the viable methodological solutions and providing application area-wise knowledge gaps for future studies.
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Fraz Inam, Aneeq Inam, Muhammad Abbas Mian, Adnan Ahmed Sheikh and Hayat Muhammad Awan
Considering the economic dimension of sustainability, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the risk of bankruptcy in the Pakistani firms of the non-financial sector from years…
Abstract
Purpose
Considering the economic dimension of sustainability, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the risk of bankruptcy in the Pakistani firms of the non-financial sector from years 1995 to 2017.
Design/methodology/approach
Three techniques were used which include multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), logit regression and multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks. The accounting data of firms were selected one year before the bankruptcy.
Findings
Findings were obtained by comparing and analyzing the methods which show that neural networks model outperforms in the prediction of bankruptcy. They further conclude that profitability and leverage indicators have the power of discrimination in bankruptcy prediction and the best variables to predict financial distress are also found and indicated.
Practical implications
Practically, this study may help the firms to better anticipate the risks of getting bankrupt by choosing the right method and to make effective decision making for organizational sustainability.
Originality/value
Three different techniques were used in this research to predict the bankruptcy of non-financial sector in Pakistan to make an effective prediction.
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Marko Kureljusic and Erik Karger
Accounting information systems are mainly rule-based, and data are usually available and well-structured. However, many accounting systems are yet to catch up with current…
Abstract
Purpose
Accounting information systems are mainly rule-based, and data are usually available and well-structured. However, many accounting systems are yet to catch up with current technological developments. Thus, artificial intelligence (AI) in financial accounting is often applied only in pilot projects. Using AI-based forecasts in accounting enables proactive management and detailed analysis. However, thus far, there is little knowledge about which prediction models have already been evaluated for accounting problems. Given this lack of research, our study aims to summarize existing findings on how AI is used for forecasting purposes in financial accounting. Therefore, the authors aim to provide a comprehensive overview and agenda for future researchers to gain more generalizable knowledge.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors identify existing research on AI-based forecasting in financial accounting by conducting a systematic literature review. For this purpose, the authors used Scopus and Web of Science as scientific databases. The data collection resulted in a final sample size of 47 studies. These studies were analyzed regarding their forecasting purpose, sample size, period and applied machine learning algorithms.
Findings
The authors identified three application areas and presented details regarding the accuracy and AI methods used. Our findings show that sociotechnical and generalizable knowledge is still missing. Therefore, the authors also develop an open research agenda that future researchers can address to enable the more frequent and efficient use of AI-based forecasts in financial accounting.
Research limitations/implications
Owing to the rapid development of AI algorithms, our results can only provide an overview of the current state of research. Therefore, it is likely that new AI algorithms will be applied, which have not yet been covered in existing research. However, interested researchers can use our findings and future research agenda to develop this field further.
Practical implications
Given the high relevance of AI in financial accounting, our results have several implications and potential benefits for practitioners. First, the authors provide an overview of AI algorithms used in different accounting use cases. Based on this overview, companies can evaluate the AI algorithms that are most suitable for their practical needs. Second, practitioners can use our results as a benchmark of what prediction accuracy is achievable and should strive for. Finally, our study identified several blind spots in the research, such as ensuring employee acceptance of machine learning algorithms in companies. However, companies should consider this to implement AI in financial accounting successfully.
Originality/value
To the best of our knowledge, no study has yet been conducted that provided a comprehensive overview of AI-based forecasting in financial accounting. Given the high potential of AI in accounting, the authors aimed to bridge this research gap. Moreover, our cross-application view provides general insights into the superiority of specific algorithms.
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This chapter aims at examining financial distress issue by designing a comprehensive model to explain and predict financial distress in Egypt. This comprehensive model…
Abstract
This chapter aims at examining financial distress issue by designing a comprehensive model to explain and predict financial distress in Egypt. This comprehensive model incorporates accounting ratios, market-based ratios and macroeconomic ratios. The sample of the existing research includes all the listed firms in two main sectors: basic resources and chemicals. Using logistic regression model, the results showed that adding market ratios and macroeconomic ratios enhances the predictability of the model and accounting information are not sufficient to explain financial distress.
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Adrian Gepp, Martina K. Linnenluecke, Terrence J. O’Neill and Tom Smith
This paper analyses the use of big data techniques in auditing, and finds that the practice is not as widespread as it is in other related fields. We first introduce contemporary…
Abstract
This paper analyses the use of big data techniques in auditing, and finds that the practice is not as widespread as it is in other related fields. We first introduce contemporary big data techniques to promote understanding of their potential application. Next, we review existing research on big data in accounting and finance. In addition to auditing, our analysis shows that existing research extends across three other genealogies: financial distress modelling, financial fraud modelling, and stock market prediction and quantitative modelling. Auditing is lagging behind the other research streams in the use of valuable big data techniques. A possible explanation is that auditors are reluctant to use techniques that are far ahead of those adopted by their clients, but we refute this argument. We call for more research and a greater alignment to practice. We also outline future opportunities for auditing in the context of real-time information and in collaborative platforms and peer-to-peer marketplaces.
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Md Jahidur Rahman, Hongtao Zhu and Sihe Chen
This study aims to investigate the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and financial distress and the moderating effect of firm characteristics, auditor…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and financial distress and the moderating effect of firm characteristics, auditor characteristics and the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) in China.
Design/methodology/approach
The research question is empirically examined on the basis of a data set of 1,257 Chinese-listed firms from 2011 to 2021. The dependent variable is financial distress risk, which is measured mainly by Z-score. CSR score is used as a proxy for CSR. Propensity score matching, two-stage least square and generalized method of moments are adopted to mitigate the potential endogeneity issue.
Findings
This study reveals that CSR can reduce financial distress. Specifically, results show an inverse relationship between CSR and financial distress, more significantly in non-state-owned enterprises, firms with non-BigN auditor and during Covid-19. The results are consistent and robust to endogeneity tests and sensitivity analyses.
Originality/value
This study enriches the literature on CSR and financial distress, resulting in a more attractive corporate environment, improved financial stability and more crisis-resistant economies in China.
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