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1 – 10 of 946This paper aims to answer the following important questions: Is public debt in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries sustainable? What are the determinants of public debt…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to answer the following important questions: Is public debt in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries sustainable? What are the determinants of public debt sustainability in these countries, and do these determinants exhibit heterogeneity due to regional, natural resource, and income differences among SSA countries?
Design/methodology/approach
This study analyzes the public debt sustainability in SSA countries using the theoretical model known as the Present Value Budget Constraint (PVBC) model developed by Hamilton and Flavin (1986), and adopts the econometric testing method proposed by Trehan and Walsh (1991). Moreover, to empirically investigate the determinants of public debt sustainability in SSA countries, the System-Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM) method is applied. Furthermore, this study conducts heterogeneity analysis by categorizing the sample based on different regions, natural resource endowments, and income levels. The data of this study are sourced from the IMF and World Bank databases for 45 SSA countries from 2005 to 2021.
Findings
Findings reveal that public debt in SSA countries is not sustainable in the long run, with factors such as the previous government debt, long-term debt ratio, debt repayment capacity, economic growth rate, inflation rate, export to GDP, and government fiscal deficit rate influencing sustainability. Additionally, the factors exhibit heterogeneity attributed to regional, natural resource, and income variations among SSA countries.
Practical implications
The findings of our study will serve as a catalyst for policymakers in the SSA countries to embrace and sustain robust fiscal consolidation and debt stabilization measures. Moreover, countries with distinct characteristics should implement tailored approaches. Additionally, policymakers in SSA countries should implement economic measures to address public debt issues. These measures include improving the macroeconomic structure, promoting economic transformation and diversification of industries, fostering sustainable economic growth, ensuring price stability, and strengthening resilience against external shocks and debt risks. Specifically, countries endowed with indigenous species, resources, and tourism potential should adopt a well-coordinated strategy that utilizes agriculture, tourism, ecotourism, and the hospitality industry as instruments for sustainable local community and rural development.
Originality/value
Firstly, it assesses the sustainability of public debt and its determinants for countries in SSA, which distinguishes it from previous studies that only focus on either debt sustainability or determinants of debt separately. Secondly, by including multiple SSA countries in the analysis, this study stands out from prior research that predominantly concentrates on specific nations. Thirdly, the utilization of the System-GMM method for analyzing determinants adds a novel dimension to this study, departing from earlier literature primarily focused on debt thresholds. Lastly, the heterogeneity analysis conducted in this study provides an empirical foundation for tailoring policies to different countries, addressing a facet often overlooked in earlier literature.
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Amanpreet Kaur, Vikas Kumar, Rahul Sindhwani, Punj Lata Singh and Abhishek Behl
Due to the financial disturbances created by the COVID-19 pandemic and the burden on the government exchequer, it is expected to see a rise in the knowledge base of the research…
Abstract
Purpose
Due to the financial disturbances created by the COVID-19 pandemic and the burden on the government exchequer, it is expected to see a rise in the knowledge base of the research corpus so far as the government's fiscal sustainability is concerned. Therefore, the present research examines a systematic quantitative analysis of public debt sustainability research by applying a bibliometric approach. Research also analyzes journals, institutions, countries and authors contributing to public debt sustainability.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper scrutinizes the published scientific research on public debt sustainability based on the dataset of 535 articles from 1991 to 2021 obtained from the Scopus database. Biblioshiny (R-based application) and VoSviewer software were used to perform bibliometric analysis through Performance analysis and science mapping techniques. The authors combined co-citation analysis (CCA), bibliometric analysis, keyword co-occurrence analysis (KCA) and a conceptual thematic map of the most cited articles to find the intellectual structure.
Findings
The research identified three dominating clusters, e.g. fiscal sustainability and policy rules, empirical sustainability testing and debt and growth dynamics. Another finding was that most articles were analytical and empirical and few descriptive articles were found. Owing to the empirical nature of the domain, the issues concerning public debt sustainability have continued to change over the past decades for different economies, reflecting the complexity and diversity of economic structures of different economies at different times.
Originality/value
The insight of this article provides academicians and researchers with a more refined comprehension of the conceptual and intellectual structure of the research corpus. The present research complements the existing literature review studies by pushing the research towards emerging or less developed issues such as financial and debt crises.
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the interplay between fiscal dominance and monetary policy in South Africa from 1960 to 2023.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate the interplay between fiscal dominance and monetary policy in South Africa from 1960 to 2023.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) medel to analyze the relationship between fiscal dominance and monetary policy. Short-term and long-term shocks of government borrowing and deficits are examined to understand their impact on inflation dynamics.
Findings
Fiscal dominance has a significant effect both in the short and long run. There is evidence that government debt and deficits increase inflation, overriding the effects of monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability. On the other hand, the study reveals that money supply shocks have a greater effect in reducing fiscal dominance compared to interest rate shocks. The variance movement on inflation is significantly explained by government debt and deficits. This emphasizes the persistence of inflationary pressures associated with fiscal dominance, highlighting the importance of effective policy interventions to mitigate inflationary risks.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the existing literature by providing insights into the dynamics of fiscal dominance in South Africa. Moreover, this study extends the theoretical framework of the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) and the government budget constraint. This study contributes valuable insights into the dynamics of fiscal dominance in South Africa and offers guidance for policymakers in formulating strategies to safeguard economic stability.
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Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, Luciano Vereda Oliveira and Matheus Ignacio Santos Dias
The relevance of transparency related to public finances is considered fundamental for good economic policy management. An environment of greater fiscal transparency allows the…
Abstract
Purpose
The relevance of transparency related to public finances is considered fundamental for good economic policy management. An environment of greater fiscal transparency allows the private sector greater predictability, improving the entrepreneur’s decision-making ability. This study empirically analyzes fiscal opacity’s effect on business confidence in an emerging economy.
Design/methodology/approach
We use monthly data from the Brazilian economy from January 2010 to March 2023. Based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) regressions, we analyze whether fiscal opacity, measured by the signal-to-noise ratio, affects business confidence. Moreover, to evaluate the duration of a shock transmitted by the fiscal opacity on business confidence, we consider an impulse-response function generated by a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR).
Findings
We found that fiscal opacity resulting from the lack of information to anticipate the budgetary result of the public sector deteriorates business confidence.
Practical implications
We present robust empirical evidence that allows us to assume that using a strategy to reduce fiscal opacity through mechanisms that provide reliable economic data and fiscal forecasts is essential for fiscal policy to affect business confidence positively. Reducing fiscal opacity provides greater clarity regarding the budget outcome, reduces economic uncertainty and improves the fiscal policy expectation channel.
Originality/value
This paper is the first to analyze how the lack of information for market agents to anticipate the government’s budget execution accurately (fiscal opacity) affects business confidence.
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This followed congressional approval of the government’s ‘base law’ and tax package, designed to strengthen public finances, modernise the labour market and attract foreign…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB288292
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Geographic
Topical
Panama has demonstrated resilience and maintained economic momentum, despite challenges such as reduced traffic through the drought-stricken Panama Canal and the closure, after…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB286475
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
INTERNATIONAL: Short-run election plans raise risks
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES286522
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
Antonio Faúndez-Ugalde, Patricia Toledo-Zúñiga, Angela Toso-Milos and Francisco Saffie-Gatica
The objective of this study is to generate new fiscal transparency indicators based on fiscal sustainability reports voluntarily disclosed by Chilean companies, leaders in Latin…
Abstract
Purpose
The objective of this study is to generate new fiscal transparency indicators based on fiscal sustainability reports voluntarily disclosed by Chilean companies, leaders in Latin America in the issuance of green, social and sustainability corporate bonds (OECD, 2023a; OECD, 2018).
Design/methodology/approach
The sample included the analysis of sustainability reports of 30 Chilean companies with the highest market capitalization published in the period 2021. A correlation was carried out for each of the companies in the sample with the intention of detecting differences between several groups of paired dichotomous variables. For this, Cochran's Q test was used; the McNemar test; the Friedman test; the Wilcoxon test; the Levene test and the Kruskal−Wallis test were also used.
Findings
In the case of the companies in the sample, for the 2021 period there was an increase in disclosures of tax strategies compared to the study carried out by Faúndez-Ugalde et al. (2022) for the period 2020. However, there is still a lower degree of compliance in reporting fiscal risks and “country by country” information.
Practical implications
The commitment of companies to assume tax transparency standards improves their behavior in compliance with their tax obligations and provides greater certainty to develop actions to mitigate their tax risks.
Social implications
The results demonstrate practical implications, where fiscal sustainability reports can enhance the work of tax administrations by defining indicators of good fiscal practices.
Originality/value
This study expands the research on the fiscal sustainability standards of Chilean companies, thus providing a deeper understanding of their performance regarding fiscal transparency.
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This paper aims to unravel the puzzle that the United Kingdom’s high-quality government accounting and fiscal architecture is associated with low-quality outcomes, including poor…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to unravel the puzzle that the United Kingdom’s high-quality government accounting and fiscal architecture is associated with low-quality outcomes, including poor productivity growth, high public debt, public services which do not meet citizen expectations and historically high levels of taxation. It contributes to public sector accounting research in the fields of fiscal transparency and governance.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses Miller and Power’s (2013) economization framework and Dunsire’s (1990) concept of collibration to explain why being a global leader in public sector accounting reform and in fiscal and monetary architecture has not protected the UK from weak governance. The intersection of economization’s roles of accounting with modes of government accounting clarifies the puzzle.
Findings
Whereas accruals government accounting contributes to fiscal transparency, this is not a sufficient condition for well-judged policy and its effective application. Collibration is the dominant mechanism for mediation in the fiscally centralized UK, but it has failed to deliver stable outcomes, in part because Parliament is limited in its ability to hold back inappropriate behaviour by the Executive. Subjectivization has disrupted adjudication because governments at all levels resist constraints on their behaviour, with unpredictable and often damaging consequences.
Originality/value
This paper provides insights through the combined lens of economization and modes of government accounting, demonstrating the practical value of this conceptualization. Although some causes for unsatisfactory outcomes are specific to the UK, there are cautions for accounting and fiscal reformers in other countries, such as Member States of the European Union.
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James W. Douglas and Ringa Raudla
The purpose of this article is to challenge the balanced budget practices of U.S. state governments and offer alternatives that may lead to better fiscal, economic and policy…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this article is to challenge the balanced budget practices of U.S. state governments and offer alternatives that may lead to better fiscal, economic and policy outcomes. We contend that the norm of balance may be leading U.S. states to make fiscal decisions that result in less-than-ideal outcomes, especially during economic downturns.
Design/methodology/approach
This is a normative article. We examine the scholarly evidence regarding balanced budget practices to assess the appropriateness of balanced budget norms. We also examine the fiscal rules followed by Eurozone countries to draw potential lessons for U.S. states.
Findings
We conclude that state governments should move away from strict norms of budget balance and seek more flexible approaches. We suggest that instead of following strict rules and norms of balance, U.S. states should consider implementing escape clauses, debt and deficit ceilings, and fiscal councils. We also suggest that the Federal Reserve be open to lending directly to states during fiscal crises to ensure that states have access to affordable credit.
Originality/value
The balanced budget norm has become ingrained in U.S. state budgeting practices, so much so that public officials and scholars alike rarely question it. The novel contribution of our article is to question this practice in a systematic way and propose alternative approaches.
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