Search results

This paper aims to develop a compound measure, which is fiscal vulnerability index, provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for Türkiye's economy.

The index is constructed using twelve distinct fiscal indicators and applying the portfolio method, which considers the time-varying cross-correlation structure between the subindices.

Dynamics of the fiscal vulnerability index indicate that it accurately predicts to the well-known fiscal crisis occurring in Türkiye's recent history. As a result, such a compound measure should be used in the early identification of fiscal vulnerability in Türkiye.

The main contribution of this paper, relative to existing papers, is that a fiscal vulnerability index was constructed by employing the most contemporaneous method and evaluating its performance in terms of capturing historical stress periods.

We investigate the role of fiscal policy, through several measures of government revenues and expenditures and redistribution, on disposable and market income inequality and economic growth as well as the interaction between inequality and growth for 31 European countries from 1995 to 2019.

We use a simultaneous equations model to assess the linkage between economic growth, inequalities and fiscal policy variables.

(1) While disposable income inequality has a negative effect on all fiscal policy variables, market income inequality has a mixed effects; (2) for Eastern European countries, public consumption and direct taxation positively influence economic growth; conversely, for Western European countries, the effects are negative; (3) disposable and market income inequality have a positive effect on growth for Eastern European countries, and a negative influence on growth for Western European countries; (4) growth contributes to the increase of disposable and market income inequality for Eastern European countries; for Western European countries, the effects are opposite; and (5) fiscal policy allows for the attenuation of disposable income inequality.

The different results between the role of market and disposable income inequality levels lead us to suggest tax progressivity as an important feature to consider when analyse the trivariate relationship between inequalities, fiscal policy and growth. Furthermore, there are different dynamics between inequality and growth, and the role of fiscal policy, on both Eastern and Western European countries.

The relevance of transparency related to public finances is considered fundamental for good economic policy management. An environment of greater fiscal transparency allows the private sector greater predictability, improving the entrepreneur’s decision-making ability. This study empirically analyzes fiscal opacity’s effect on business confidence in an emerging economy.

We use monthly data from the Brazilian economy from January 2010 to March 2023. Based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) regressions, we analyze whether fiscal opacity, measured by the signal-to-noise ratio, affects business confidence. Moreover, to evaluate the duration of a shock transmitted by the fiscal opacity on business confidence, we consider an impulse-response function generated by a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR).

We found that fiscal opacity resulting from the lack of information to anticipate the budgetary result of the public sector deteriorates business confidence.

We present robust empirical evidence that allows us to assume that using a strategy to reduce fiscal opacity through mechanisms that provide reliable economic data and fiscal forecasts is essential for fiscal policy to affect business confidence positively. Reducing fiscal opacity provides greater clarity regarding the budget outcome, reduces economic uncertainty and improves the fiscal policy expectation channel.

This paper is the first to analyze how the lack of information for market agents to anticipate the government’s budget execution accurately (fiscal opacity) affects business confidence.

India’s historical fiscal performance has featured elevated deficit levels. Driven by the imperative need for fiscal stimulus measures in response to the crisis, efforts toward fiscal consolidation from 2003 to 2008 were reversed in 2008–2009 due to the financial crisis. These stimulus actions are believed to have wielded a notable influence on inflation dynamics. Presumably, a high inflation rate hinders growth and inflicts severe welfare costs. Accordingly, the principal objective of this paper is to scrutinise the threshold effects of fiscal deficit on inflation within the context of the Indian economy.

We employed the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) Model, a robust tool for capturing non-linear relationships, to discern the specific threshold level of fiscal deficit. Our analysis encompasses annual data spanning from 1971 to 2020. Additionally, we have leveraged the Toda-Yamamoto causality test to establish the existence and direction of a causal connection between fiscal deficit and inflation in the Indian economy.

Our analysis pinpointed a critical threshold level of 3.40% for fiscal deficit, a value beyond which inflation dynamics in India undergo a marked transition, signifying the presence of significant non-linear effects. Moreover, the results derived from the Toda-Yamamoto causality test offer substantiating evidence of a causal relationship originating from the fiscal deficit and leading to inflation within the Indian economic framework.

The findings of our study carry significant implications, particularly for the formulation and execution of both fiscal and monetary policies. Understanding the threshold effects of fiscal deficit on inflation in India provides policymakers with valuable insights into achieving a harmonious balance between these two critical economic variables.

To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first of its kind to empirically investigate threshold effects of fiscal deficit on inflation in India from a non-linear perspective using the Smooth Transition Autoregression (STAR) model.

The objective of the study is to investigate the dynamic relationship between fiscal stress (FS) shocks and foreign direct investment (FDI) in moderate FS developing countries spanning from 2000 to 2021. The paper seeks to identify dual-regime effects, exploring how FS shocks impact FDI differently in low-stress and high-stress environments.

This study employs advanced econometric techniques to investigate the dynamic relationship between FS shocks and FDI in a sample of moderate FS developing countries spanning from 2000 to 2021. The analysis utilizes variance decomposition, impulse response functions, and a regime-switching vector autoregressive model to explore the nuanced interactions between FS and FDI attraction. These techniques allow for the identification of dual-regime effects, wherein FS shocks exhibit differing impacts on FDI depending on the prevailing stress environment.

The analysis reveals a dual-regime effect of FS shocks on FDI in the sample of moderate FS developing countries studied from 2000 to 2021. In low-stress regimes, FS shocks initially have a positive impact on FDI, suggesting potential investment opportunities. However, in high-stress regimes, the effect reverses, resulting in a negative impact on FDI attraction. Moreover, the study highlights the asymmetric nature of this relationship, with the adverse effects of FS on FDI intensifying over time in high-stress environments.

Previous studies focused mainly on a country's fiscal position and its impact on FDI or capital inflows. This is the first study to assess how FS or fiscal pressure affects FDI.

The study examines the impact of fiscal policy shocks on economic growth and income inequality in Ghana. This has become necessary because of the interdependence between growth and income inequality and the role fiscal policy plays in this relationship in the development process of a country. Thus, a study that investigates how government expenditure shock and tax revenue shock influence the relationship between economic growth and income inequality could assist policymakers to adopt the best policy mix to ensure income equity and sustained economic growth in Ghana.

It employs sacrifice ratio from structural VAR model using quarterly time series data from 1996 to 2019 on Ghana.

Our results show that government expenditure shock impacts economic growth, exchange rate and education positively and significantly in the long run. Also, tax revenue shock has a positive impact on income inequality, economic growth and education. The findings further show that there exists a trade-off between economic growth and income inequality in the long run.

The relationships between fiscal policy shocks, economic growth and income inequality have been extensively discussed among scholars. Understanding how these three macroeconomic variables are determined and their interrelationships are crucial for policymakers. This is because fiscal policy aids in both economic growth and income inequality. In the empirical literature, the emphasis has been on independently estimating the growth effects of fiscal policy or the distribution effects of fiscal policy, leaving out the existence of possible trade-off between economic growth and income inequality following a fiscal shock. To the best of our knowledge, no empirical study has been done on Ghana to empirically examine the trade-off between economic growth and income inequality as we do in this paper.

The paper examines the asymmetric effects of fiscal deficits on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria, which include economic growth, exchange rates and inflation. The existing works of literature are premised on symmetry assumptions with dichotomous findings. In such situations, they suggest using a nonlinear approach as an alternative to checkmate the findings premised on linearity. This is critical, considering the perpetual fiscal deficit trends of Nigeria, which are considered a major economic problem in the country.

The study employs nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimator using secondary data collected from the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The results show that in the short run, both positive and negative shocks to the fiscal deficit have no effect on Nigeria's economic growth. The same is found on the negative shocks in the long run. However, positive shocks to the fiscal deficit have a long-run positive impact on economic growth. It is further revealed that, in the short run, positive shocks as well as negative shocks to fiscal deficits are positively related to the inflation rate. More so, long-run estimates show that positive shocks to the fiscal deficit have negative impacts on inflation, while negative shocks to the fiscal deficit have positive impacts on inflation.

This study introduces novelties to the understanding of the relationship between fiscal deficits and macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. It accounts for asymmetric and nonlinear features that are more aligned with the socioeconomic realities of real-world phenomena. This study also offers more insightful policy perspectives to enhance the fiscal profile of the country.

The fiscal outlay efficiency matters when the performance-based allocation of funds is made to state governments by the central government in a federal structure of an economy like India. Also the efficiency cannon of public expenditure is a key aspect in the field of public economics. Thus, a study to evaluate the efficiency in fiscal outlay of Indian states has been conducted.

The paper offers a three divisions–based paradigm under Network Data Envelopment Analysis framework to compare the performance of fiscal entities (say Indian state governments) in converting available fiscal resources into desired short-run and long-run growth and development objectives. The network efficiency score has been taken as a measure of the quality of fiscal outlay management that is trifurcated into divisional efficiencies representing budgeting process, fiscal outlay efficiency process and fiscal outlay effectiveness process.

It has been noticed that the states are under performing in achieving short-run growth targets and so the efficiency process division has been identified a major source of fiscal under performance. Suboptimum allocation of fiscal expenditure under various heads within the fiscal resources, as explained under budgeting process, is another major cause of fiscal under performance.

The study purposes a three divisions–based paradigm that takes into account efficiency of a state in (1) planning budget, (2) achieving short-run growth targets and (3) achieving long-run development targets. These three stages are named as budgeting process efficiency, fiscal outlay efficiency and fiscal outlay effectiveness, respectively. Therefore, a new paradigm called BEE paradigm is proposed to evaluate performance of fiscal entities in terms of fiscal outlay efficiency.

In existing literature on measuring efficiency of public expenditure, the public sector outputs have been made as function of fiscal expenditure as input treating the said outlay as an exogenous variable. In present context, the fiscal expenditure has been treated endogenous to the budgeting process. A high inefficiency on account of budgeting process supports this treatment too.

This study quantitatively examines the relationship between economic fluctuations and government budget size in the context of China’s fiscal decentralization, drawing inspiration from theoretical predictions of the Keynesian view and empirical studies on other economies.

The panel comprises 31 provinces or equivalents in mainland China, spanning from 1994 to 2019. Diverse estimation strategies including two-way fixed effect regression, the generalized method of moments (GMM) and threshold regressions are, utilized.

The results suggest that under the “tax-assignment system”, neither the central government’s fiscal transfers nor the provincial budgetary revenues or expenditures help reduce economic volatility. Surprisingly, some regression outcomes suggest that government size measures destabilize business cycles.

While the study does not provide supportive evidence for the stabilizing effect of public budgets in Chinese provinces, it promotes a rethinking of the government’s intricate role in macroeconomic stabilization in the context of China’s fiscal decentralization.

This study reexamines fiscal deficit sustainability in South Africa.

The study applies three cointegration testing approaches, namely testing for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model, time-varying cointegration test and asymmetric cointegration test.

The results point to the existence of a level relationship between government revenue and spending. In addition, the long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenue and spending in South Africa is found to be characterized by breaks. As such, assuming a constant cointegrating slope may be misleading. Results from time-varying cointegration and an estimation of a cointegrated two-break model indicate that cointegrating coefficient has been time-varying but has remained less than 1 for the entire study period, indicating that fiscal deficits have been weakly sustainable. This finding is also confirmed by the results from an estimated asymmetric error correction model.

In view of the findings, authorities should put in place policies to improve the fiscal budgetary stance and reinforce the sustainability of the fiscal deficits in South Africa. Among other things, South Africa could undertake reforms to state-owned companies to reduce their reliance on public funds, slow down the pace of the public sector wage growth and devise effective economic measures to boost long-term growth. In addition, tax compliance and other revenue collection measures should be enhanced for additional tax revenue.

The contribution of this study is twofold; first, the study uses a long series of annual data spanning over a century, from 1913 to 2020. Indeed, cointegration is better modeled using long spans of time series data. Second, to examine the existence of a level relationship between spending and revenue, the study uses cointegration tests which allow capturing time-variation in the cointegrating slope coefficient, and accounting for asymmetries in the relationship between government spending and revenue. It is important to allow for time-variation in the cointegrating slope coefficient, especially when it has been hardly treated in the empirical literature on fiscal deficit sustainability. Allowing for time-variation in the cointegrating slope coefficient helps us to analyze fiscal deficit sustainability by periods of time. Indeed, the degree of fiscal sustainability can change from one time period to another.