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1 – 10 of 405Toan Pham-Khanh Tran, Ngoc Phu Tran, Phuc Van Nguyen and Duc Hong Vo
The effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy have been investigated. However, the effect from a moderating factor that affects this relationship has been largely…
Abstract
Purpose
The effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy have been investigated. However, the effect from a moderating factor that affects this relationship has been largely ignored in the existing literature. This paper investigates how fiscal deficit moderates the effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy for 32 Asian countries for the past two decades since 2000.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use various techniques, which allow cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity in panel data analysis, to examine this relationship in both the long run and short run. The analysis also considers the marginal effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy at different degrees of fiscal deficits.
Findings
Empirical findings from this paper indicate that an increase in government expenditure and fiscal deficit will increase the shadow economy size. Interestingly, the effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy will intensify with a greater degree of the budget deficit. The authors also find that enhancing economic growth to improve income per capita and extending international trade appears to reduce the shadow economy in the Asian countries.
Practical implications
The authors consider that policies targeting reducing shadow economy should follow conventional economic policies on economic growth, unemployment and inflation.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical study conducted to examine the moderating role of fiscal deficit in the government expenditure–shadow economy nexus in Asian countries.
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James W. Douglas and Ringa Raudla
The purpose of this article is to challenge the balanced budget practices of U.S. state governments and offer alternatives that may lead to better fiscal, economic and policy…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this article is to challenge the balanced budget practices of U.S. state governments and offer alternatives that may lead to better fiscal, economic and policy outcomes. We contend that the norm of balance may be leading U.S. states to make fiscal decisions that result in less-than-ideal outcomes, especially during economic downturns.
Design/methodology/approach
This is a normative article. We examine the scholarly evidence regarding balanced budget practices to assess the appropriateness of balanced budget norms. We also examine the fiscal rules followed by Eurozone countries to draw potential lessons for U.S. states.
Findings
We conclude that state governments should move away from strict norms of budget balance and seek more flexible approaches. We suggest that instead of following strict rules and norms of balance, U.S. states should consider implementing escape clauses, debt and deficit ceilings, and fiscal councils. We also suggest that the Federal Reserve be open to lending directly to states during fiscal crises to ensure that states have access to affordable credit.
Originality/value
The balanced budget norm has become ingrained in U.S. state budgeting practices, so much so that public officials and scholars alike rarely question it. The novel contribution of our article is to question this practice in a systematic way and propose alternative approaches.
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Abubakar Jamilu Baita, Hussaini Usman Malami and Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan
This study aims to examine the fiscal policy drivers of sovereign sukuk market development in selected Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries. Specifically, the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the fiscal policy drivers of sovereign sukuk market development in selected Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries. Specifically, the research aims to analyze the effects of fiscal deficit, public debt and government expenditure on sovereign sukuk market development, while controlling for macroeconomic and financial factors.
Design/methodology/approach
The sample consists of eight OIC member countries that play active role in the global sukuk market which include Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, Indonesia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey and Sudan. In addition, the study covers a period of 10 years spanning between 2011 and 2020. Similarly, the study uses three models, namely, random effect, generalized least square and system generalized method of moments panel models. To check for the robustness of the results, the study replaces current values of fiscal policy variables with one-year lagged values.
Findings
The findings establish that fiscal policy variables significantly influence the development of sovereign sukuk markets. Specifically, public debt is a significant fiscal variable that promotes sovereign sukuk market development, while fiscal deficit has a negative effect on the development of sovereign sukuk market. However, the findings suggest that government expenditure does not influence sovereign sukuk issuance in the OIC member countries.
Practical implications
The study is significant to both investors and regulators in the sukuk market because it attempts to spotlight the importance of sound fiscal climate in developing sovereign sukuk market. Public debt is a facilitator, whereas fiscal deficit appears to be a constraint. Therefore, policymakers should determine the optimal mix of public debt and fiscal deficit in designing policies that promote sukuk market development.
Originality/value
The novelty of the study is its focus on the role of fiscal policy variables in facilitating sovereign sukuk market development. The study systematically establishes the link between fiscal policy and sovereign sukuk market in the OIC countries. Previous empirical studies focus extensively on the effects of macroeconomic, financial and institutional factors on sukuk market development.
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Asim Rafiq, Ameer Muhammad Aamir and Muhammad Nadeem
The aim of the paper is to determine the asymmetric impact of tourism on the deficit in the balance of payments (BOPs).
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of the paper is to determine the asymmetric impact of tourism on the deficit in the balance of payments (BOPs).
Design/methodology/approach
The research uses the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to investigate the asymmetric impact of tourism on Pakistan's BOPs deficit using quarterly data from 1995 to 2019.
Findings
The finding reveals that due to the positive change in tourism, the BOPs deficit decreases by 27%, although due to the negative change in tourism, the BOPs deficit rises by 2.3%. In addition, the significance of F-statistics (10.609) confirms the existence of co-integration between tourism and the deficit in the BOPs. The Wald test confirms the asymmetric association between tourism and the deficit in the BOPs over the long term.
Research limitations/implications
In order to improve tourism in Pakistan, policymakers must consider the following implications. First, there is a need for an adequate infrastructure that can help the tourist. Second, the Government must maintain a stable law and order situation as a whole and particularly at tourist destinations. Finally, the Government should develop tourism-friendly policies in order to boost tourism in Pakistan.
Originality/value
The research provides new evidence of the impact of tourism on the BOPs using the novel non-linear ARDL (NARDL) technique. The evidence will help policymakers to develop policies to improve tourism in order to reduce the BOPs deficit.
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M. Kabir Hassan, M. Zakir Hossain Khan, Mohammad Ayub Miah and Md. Karimul Islam
Zakat, one of the fundamental pillars of Islam, holds the potential to significantly contribute to fiscal consolidation, particularly in developing nations. However, the…
Abstract
Purpose
Zakat, one of the fundamental pillars of Islam, holds the potential to significantly contribute to fiscal consolidation, particularly in developing nations. However, the national-level potential of Zakat often remains unexplored. This study aims to explore the potential of national-level Zakat and the opportunity to integrate it into the fiscal framework.
Design/methodology/approach
This study estimates Zakat’s potential on national financial and economic components. The components include bank deposits, shares and securities, pensions (provident fund), industrial production and trade services, mining resources, Ushr on agro-crops and forestry, Ushr on livestock, Ushr on fishery, gross domestic product (GDP), national budget and national revenue. The study gathers data, ranging from FY2000 to FY2018, on national economic sectors from reliable secondary sources. The net value (NV) of each indicator is calculated as NV = TV − LA, where NV is the wage-adjusted net value after deducting the living adjustment (LA) value from the sectoral total. The proposed LA value, approximately 20%, is suggested to be deducted from the total sectoral value of each sector (excluding specific industries with preadjusted wages), equating to the Nisab value.
Findings
It is estimated that the aggregate potential of Zakat in Bangladesh was US$9,749m in FY2018, compared to US$809m in FY2000, revealing the value is 3.77% of GDP and 21% of the national fiscal budget. In FY2018, the service sector was the largest contributor (30%), followed by bank deposits (23%). Pension funds made minimal contributions, whereas shares and bonds, as well as the manufacturing sector, each made a 10% contribution to the estimated Zakat potential. Zakat on agriculture output accounted for 15% of the total. The aggregate potential Zakat in FY2018 was 12% higher than that in FY2000.
Originality/value
The paper highlights a novel contribution through its nuanced analysis of sector-specific Zakat on macrolevel data and its implications within the fiscal framework. The results suggest that Zakat has substantial potential to impact fiscal dynamics, providing valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to recognize the national-level Zakat for development plans such as the five-year plan. The study suggests piloting a central and independent national body to study the feasibility of national-level Zakat collection and its utilization in the fiscal budget. It will help the government reduce the burden of external debt and deficit budget and, instead, will promote revenue collection in collaboration with the National Board of Revenue.
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Lord Mensah and Felix Kwasi Arku
This paper aims to examine the factors that contribute to the external debt growth in Ghana.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the factors that contribute to the external debt growth in Ghana.
Design/methodology/approach
The study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the error correction model (ECM) to establish the short-run and long-run relationships between the dependent variable (external debt) and the independent variables (debt service, exchange rate, gross domestic product, government expenditure, import and trade openness), using a time series data spanning from 1990 to 2019.
Findings
The results indicate that debt service, GDP, government expenditure and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with external debt, while import and exchange rates have a negative relationship with external debt in the long run. In the short run, debt service, import, exchange rate and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with external debt, while GDP has a negative relationship with external debt.
Practical implications
The study found that variables such as government expenditure, debt service and import contribute significantly to the nation’s external debt stock. These findings suggest that policymakers should focus on prioritising and cutting down expenditure in their quest to curtail the debt menace facing the nation. Since existing debt service has the tendency of influencing debt stock, it is recommended that government should reduce borrowing in order avoid debt trap. Home-grown policies to reduce imports must also be encouraged. As these drivers of external debt are tackled head-on, Ghana can be rightly positioned to record lower levels of public debt and subsequently reap the benefits of economic growth.
Originality/value
The study adds to the public debt literature, specifically addressing the idiosyncratic determinants of external debt within the Ghanaian context.
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This study aims to explore the determinants of public debt in selected South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries for 19 years, from 2001 to 2019.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore the determinants of public debt in selected South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries for 19 years, from 2001 to 2019.
Design/methodology/approach
Using ordinary fixed and random effect models, the authors examine the role of internal and external factors in determining the composition of public debt. Furthermore, for robustness, they compare the results with two-stage least square (2SLS) regression estimates after considering the problem of endogeneity, overidentification, under-identification and weak instruments.
Findings
The findings show that among the selected macroeconomic variables, inflation, exchange rate and broad money have significant negative effects on the debt-GDP ratio. In contrast, military spending, corruption and interest rates appear to positively influence the same as per 2SLS results. From the policymaking perspective, SAARC countries should focus more on reducing military spending and make a concerted effort to augment investments in productive projects. Further, with strong fiscal consolidation and institutional quality, it is important to mitigate the frequent occurrence of corruption conundrums in emerging economies for the development of a transparent economic system.
Originality/value
The study is distinct from previous studies in two ways. First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no studies focusing on SAARC countries in the context of public debt. Second, the study expands the existing literature on public debt by taking into account both external and internal debts to decipher the within-country and cross-country determinants of debt accumulation. More specifically, this model considers accountability and transparency in the public sector, cross-border security challenges and benefits of globalization by including explanatory variables such as corruption, military expenditure spending and capital inflows.
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The economic environment has been dictated by Russia’s war in Ukraine and its market and policy implications. Next year, the prospects for the V4 economies are moderately upbeat…
Details
DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB283921
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
The unsustainable public debt of most African economies adversely affects their economic growth and stability. This study aims to explore the influence of cross-country indicators…
Abstract
Purpose
The unsustainable public debt of most African economies adversely affects their economic growth and stability. This study aims to explore the influence of cross-country indicators of governance from African countries on public debt accumulation.
Design/methodology/approach
The study deployed a quantitative research design technique. Secondary data was used in this study. The frequency of the data is annual, and it is available from 1996 to 2022 for 48 countries in Africa. The study deployed the system generalized method of moments for the estimation.
Findings
The study finds that countries with high regulatory quality standards, control corruption and ensure effective governance accumulate less government debt while countries that abide by the rule of law instead accumulate more government debt. The study also finds that economic growth and government revenue reduce government gross debt while government expenditure and investments increase public debt.
Research limitations/implications
Due to data unavailability, other factors which are likely to influence government debt accumulation were not included in the study as control variables. This is the limitation of the study.
Social implications
African governments should strive to maintain high regulatory quality standards through the formulation and implementation of sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private sector development, and ensure quality and accountability of public and civil services. Governments are also urged to control corruption and enact good laws so that the enforcement of these laws will not worsen the risk of becoming debt-distressed.
Originality/value
Recent studies on governance and public debt were focused on the Arabian Gulf countries, countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and a combination of high and low-income countries. This study scrutinizes exclusively the effects of the quality of governance indicators on public debt accumulation, in the context of Africa.
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Muzffar Hussain Dar and Md. Zulquar Nain
This study examines the possibility of asymmetric impact of inflation on the financial development (FD) in the case of Indian economy from 1980 to 2020. Moreover, the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the possibility of asymmetric impact of inflation on the financial development (FD) in the case of Indian economy from 1980 to 2020. Moreover, the finance–growth hypothesis is also tested.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors incorporated the “Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag” (NARDL) model due to Shin et al. (2014) to investigate the asymmetric impact of inflation on financial development. Asymmetric cumulative dynamic multipliers are also used to track the traverse of any short-run distortion towards the long-run cointegration.
Findings
The results revealed that inflation impacts the financial development negatively whereas the economic growth (EG) and trade openness have a positive effect. However, the effect of inflation on financial development is not symmetric. Moreover, the findings support the demand-led growth hypothesis.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study examining the asymmetric effects of inflation on financial development in the Indian context. In addition, instead of using a single proxy to measure financial development, an index for financial development encompassing different aspects of the financial system has been incorporated.
Peer review
The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-02-2023-0094
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