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Article
Publication date: 1 May 2001

Roger B. Atindéhou and Jean‐Pierre Gueyie

The sensitivity of Canadian chartered banks to exchange rate risk is analyzed over the period 1988‐1995 through estimating the three‐factor asset pricing model (market, interest…

2788

Abstract

The sensitivity of Canadian chartered banks to exchange rate risk is analyzed over the period 1988‐1995 through estimating the three‐factor asset pricing model (market, interest rate, and exchange rate). Results indicate that banks’ stock returns are sensitive to exchange rate risk and, mainly, to the US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar exchange rate. The sensitivity is, however, unstable over time. Moreover, there is an asymmetric response to exchange rate risk. Investors react more to a re‐evaluation of their portfolio after losses than to an appreciation after successive gains.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 39 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2023

Fatma Hachicha

The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2) to investigate co-movements between the ten developing stock markets, the sentiment investor's, exchange rates and geopolitical risk (GPR) during Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, (3) to explore the key factors that might affect exchange market and capital market before and mainly during Russia–Ukraine war period.

Design/methodology/approach

The wavelet approach and the multivariate wavelet coherence (MWC) are applied to detect the co-movements on daily data from August 2019 to December 2022. Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used to assess the systemic risks of exchange rate market and stock market return in the developing market.

Findings

Results of this study reveal (1) strong interdependence between GPR, investor sentiment rational (ISR), stock market index and exchange rate in short- and long-terms in most countries, as inferred from (WTC) analysis. (2) There is evidence of strong short-term co-movements between ISR and exchange rates, with ISR leading. (3) Multivariate coherency shows strong contributions of ISR and GPR index to stock market index and exchange rate returns. The findings signal the attractiveness of the Vietnamese dong, Malaysian ringgits and Tunisian dinar as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The authors detect a positive connectedness in the short term between all pairs of the variables analyzed in most countries. (4) Both foreign exchange and equity markets are exposed to higher levels of systemic risk in the period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Originality/value

This study provides information that supports investors, regulators and executive managers in developing countries. The impact of sentiment investor with GPR intensified the co-movements of stocks market and exchange market during 2021–2022, which overlaps with period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2002

Kam C. Chan, Gim S. Seow and Kinsun Tam

Reviews previous research on the impact of changes in exchange rates on firm value and develops hypotheses on the effect of exchange rate exposure on US pharmaceutical firms…

1804

Abstract

Reviews previous research on the impact of changes in exchange rates on firm value and develops hypotheses on the effect of exchange rate exposure on US pharmaceutical firms 1990‐1999. Tests them using data from 523 firms (21 producing proprietary drugs and 32 generic) splite into two sub‐periods (1990‐1994 and 1995‐1999) and explains the methodology. Finds that the proprietary drug producers were negatively affected by the rising US dollar value during the first sub‐period, but positively affected in the second; and that both generic and proprietary companies suffered a one‐month lagged negative effect. Considers the underlying reasons for this and consistency with other research; and calls for more research on the lagged relationship between stock returns and exchange rate risk.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 28 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 May 2010

Chu‐Sheng Tai

Whether stock returns are linked to exchange rate changes and whether foreign exchange risk is priced in a domestic context are less conclusive and thus still subject to a great…

3085

Abstract

Purpose

Whether stock returns are linked to exchange rate changes and whether foreign exchange risk is priced in a domestic context are less conclusive and thus still subject to a great debate. The purpose of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on these two inter‐related issues, which are critical to investors and corporate risk management.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper applies two different econometric approaches: Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression (NLSUR) via Hansen's Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) and multivariate GARCH in mean (MGARCH‐M) to examine the exchange rate exposure and its pricing.

Findings

Using industry data for Japan, similar to previous studies, foreign exchange risk is not priced based on the test of an unconditional two‐factor asset pricing model. However, strong evidence of time‐varying foreign exchange risk premium and significant exchange rate betas are obtained based on the tests of conditional asset pricing models using MGARCH‐M approach where both conditional first and second moments of industry returns and risk factors are estimated simultaneously.

Research limitations/implications

The strong empirical evidence found in this study implies that corporate currency hedging not only results in more stable cash flows for a firm, but also reduces its cost of capital, and hence is justifiable.

Originality/value

This paper conducts an in‐depth investigation regarding the exchange rate exposure and its pricing by utilizing two different econometric approaches: NLSUR via Hansen's GMM and MGARCH‐M. In doing so, a more reliable conclusion about the exchange rate exposure and its pricing can be drawn.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 36 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 January 2006

Mazin A.M. Al Janabi

This paper seeks to provide foreign exchange risk measurement/management techniques and strategies that can be applied to investment and trading portfolios in emerging financial…

1628

Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to provide foreign exchange risk measurement/management techniques and strategies that can be applied to investment and trading portfolios in emerging financial markets, such as the Moroccan foreign exchange market, with the objective of setting up the basis of a methodology/procedure for the measurement, management and control of foreign exchange exposures in the day‐to‐day trading operations.

Design/methodology/approach

Demonstrates a proactive approach for the measurements, management and control of market risk exposure for financial trading portfolios that contain foreign exchange securities. This approach is based on the renowned concept of value‐at‐risk (VAR) along with the creation of a software tool utilizing matrix‐algebra technique. In order to illustrate the proper use of VAR and stress‐testing methods, real‐world examples and practical reports of foreign exchange trading risk management are presented for the Moroccan Dirham.

Findings

To this end, several case studies were achieved with the objective of setting up a practical framework of trading risk measurement and control reports in addition to the inception of procedures for the calculation of VAR's limits. Moreover, the effects of hedging of foreign exchange trading exposures with reciprocal equity trading positions were explored and quantified. Finally, initial empirical tests of the long‐term behavior of the Moroccan foreign exchange and debt markets were quantified and analyzed.

Practical implications

In this work, key foreign exchange trading risk management methods, rules and procedures that financial entities, regulators and policymakers should consider in setting up their daily foreign exchange trading risk management objectives are examined and adapted to the specific needs of emerging markets, such as in the context of the Moroccan foreign exchange market.

Originality/value

This paper fills a gap in the foreign exchange risk management literature especially in the emerging markets perspective. The risk management procedures that are discussed in this work will aid financial markets' participants, regulators and policymakers in founding sound and up‐to‐date policies to handle foreign exchange risk exposures.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 January 2021

Hon Chung Hui

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the long-run relationship between geopolitical risk and exchange rates in four ASEAN countries.

1215

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the long-run relationship between geopolitical risk and exchange rates in four ASEAN countries.

Design/methodology/approach

We augment theoretical nominal exchange rate models available in the literature with the geopolitical risk index developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2019), and then estimate these models using the ARDL approach to Cointegration.

Findings

Our analysis uncovers evidence of Cointegration in the exchange rate models when the MYR-USD, IDR-USD, THB-USD and PHP-USD exchange rates are used as dependent variable. Next, geopolitical risk is a significant long-run driver for these exchange rates. Third, in all countries higher geopolitical risk leads to a depreciation of domestic currency.

Research limitations/implications

There are implications for entrepreneurs, central banks, portfolio managers and arbitrageurs who actively trade in financial markets. Financial market players can benefit from a better understanding of how geopolitical events affect the portfolio of financial assets across various countries, while entrepreneurs can work out hedging strategies.

Originality/value

This is a contribution to the study of interlinkages between political risk and foreign exchange markets. It is the first study to adopt the geopolitical risk index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2019) to the study the foreign exchange markets of ASEAN countries.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 17 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 July 1997

Antti Hakkarainen, Eero Kasanen and Vesa Puttonen

This study investigates foreign exchange risk management in major Finnish firms. The shift to a floating foreign‐exchange regime has increased risk aversion and intensified risk

Abstract

This study investigates foreign exchange risk management in major Finnish firms. The shift to a floating foreign‐exchange regime has increased risk aversion and intensified risk management in a number of firms. The managers feel they can forecast foreign exchange development, and that they have been successful in risk management. Managers pay attention to economic exposure, and instead of being closed out, the foreign exchange exposures are managed actively. The transaction risk of both agreed‐upon flows and budgeted items are hedged. Accounting exposures are also managed extensively.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 23 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Article
Publication date: 21 May 2020

Mashukudu Hartley Molele and Janine Mukuddem-Petersen

The purpose of this paper is to examine the level of foreign exchange exposure of listed nonfinancial firms in South Africa. The study spans the period January 2002 and November…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the level of foreign exchange exposure of listed nonfinancial firms in South Africa. The study spans the period January 2002 and November 2015. Foreign exchange risk exposure is estimated in relation to the exchange rate of the South African Rand relative to the US$, the Euro, the British Pound and the trade-weighted exchange rate index.

Design/methodology/approach

The study is based on the augmented-market model of Jorion (1990). The Jorion (1990) is a capital asset pricing model-inspired framework which models share returns as a function of the return on the market index and changes in the exchange rate factor. The market risk factor is meant to discount the effect of macroeconomic factors on share returns, thus isolating the foreign exchange risk factor. In addition, the study further added the size, value, momentum, investment and profitability risk factors in line with the Fama–French three-factor model, Carhart four-factor model and the Fama–French five-factor model to account for the fact that equity capital markets in countries such as South Africa are known to be partially segmented.

Findings

Foreign exchange risk exposure levels were estimated at more than 40% for all the proxy currencies on the basis of the standard augmented market model. However, after controlling for idiosyncratic factors, through the application of the Fama–French three-factor model, the Carhart four-factor model and the Fama–French five-factor model, exposure levels were found to range between 6.5 and 12%.

Research limitations/implications

These results indicate the importance of controlling for the effects of idiosyncratic facto0rs in the estimation of foreign exchange risk exposure in the context of emerging markets of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Originality/value

This is the first study to apply the Fama–French three-factor model, Carhart four-factor model and the Fama–French five-factor model in the estimation of foreign exchange exposure of nonfinancial firms in the context of a SSA country. These results indicate the importance of controlling for the effects of idiosyncratic factors in the estimation of foreign exchange risk exposure in the context of emerging markets.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 21 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 May 2007

Mazin A.M. Al Janabi

It is the purpose of this article to empirically test the risk parameters for larger foreign‐exchange portfolios and to suggest real‐world policies and procedures for the…

2681

Abstract

Purpose

It is the purpose of this article to empirically test the risk parameters for larger foreign‐exchange portfolios and to suggest real‐world policies and procedures for the management of market risk with the aid of value at risk (VaR) methodology. The aim of this article is to fill a void in the foreign‐exchange risk management literature and particularly for large portfolios that consist of long and short positions of multi‐currencies of numerous developed and emerging economies.

Design/methodology/approach

In this article, a constructive approach for the management of risk exposure of foreign‐exchange securities is demonstrated, which takes into account proper adjustments for the illiquidity of both long and short trading/investment positions. The approach is based on the renowned concept of VaR along with the innovation of a software tool utilizing matrix‐algebra and other optimization techniques. Real‐world examples and reports of foreign‐exchange risk management are presented for a sample of 40 distinctive countries.

Findings

A number of realistic case studies are achieved with the objective of setting‐up a practical framework for market risk measurement, management and control reports, in addition to the inception of a practical procedure for the calculation of optimum VaR limits structure. The attainment of the risk management techniques is assessed for both long and short proprietary trading and/or active investment positions.

Practical implications

The main contribution of this article is the introduction of a practical risk approach to managing foreign‐exchange exposure in large proprietary trading and active investment portfolios. Key foreign‐exchange risk management methods, rules and procedures that financial entities, regulators and policymakers should consider in setting‐up their foreign‐exchange risk management objectives are examined and adapted to the specific needs of a model of 40 distinctive economies.

Originality/value

Although a substantial literature has examined the statistical and economic meaning of VaR models, this article provides real‐world techniques and optimum asset allocation strategies for large foreign‐exchange portfolios in emerging and developed financial markets. This is with the objective of setting‐up the basis of a methodology/procedure for the measurement, management and control of foreign‐exchange exposures in the day‐to‐day trading and/or asset management operations.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 8 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 1993

Shawnee K. Vickery, Joseph R. Carter and Michael P. D’Itri

Examines the cost performance of various strategies for managingforeign exchange risk in international sourcing. The strategiesrepresent a broad spectrum of approaches to exchange

Abstract

Examines the cost performance of various strategies for managing foreign exchange risk in international sourcing. The strategies represent a broad spectrum of approaches to exchange risk, ranging from naïve to active. Of particular interest is the comparison of those strategies which use exchange rate forecasts with those which do not. Focuses on movements in the German mark/US dollar exchange rate for the period January 1986 through December 1990. Employs a historical simulation methodology to compare the performance of various strategies over this time frame. The results suggest that active approaches to exchange rate management warrant further attention.

Details

International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, vol. 23 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0960-0035

Keywords

11 – 20 of over 87000