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1 – 10 of 877Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh and Waël Louhichi
This chapter analyzes the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into different prices for 12 euro area (EA) countries. We provide new up-to-date estimates of ERPT by paying attention…
Abstract
This chapter analyzes the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into different prices for 12 euro area (EA) countries. We provide new up-to-date estimates of ERPT by paying attention to either the time-series properties of data and variables endogeneity. Using VECM framework, we examine the pass-through at different stages along the distribution chain, that is, import prices, producer prices, and consumer prices. When carrying out impulse response functions analysis, we find a higher pass-through to import prices with a complete pass-through (after one year) detected for roughly half of EA countries. These estimates are relatively large compared to single-equation literature. We denote that the magnitude of the pass-through of exchange rate shocks declines along the distribution chain of pricing, with the modest effect recorded for consumer prices. When assessing for the determinant of cross-country differences in the ERPT, we find that inflation level, inflation volatility, and exchange rate persistence are the main macroeconomic factors influencing the pass-through almost along the pricing chain. Thereafter, we have tested for the decline of the response of consumer prices across EA countries. According to multivariate time-series Chow test, the stability of ERPT coefficients was rejected, and the impulse responses of consumer prices over 1990–2010 provide an evidence of general decline in rates of pass-through in most of the EA countries. Finally, using the historical decompositions, our results reveal that external factors, that is, exchange rate and import prices shocks, have had important inflationary impacts on inflation since 1999 compared to the pre-EMU period.
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Javed Ahmad Bhat and Sajad Ahmad Bhat
This paper attempts to examine the transmission of exchange rate changes into the domestic prices together with other important determinants of later, in case of a developing…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper attempts to examine the transmission of exchange rate changes into the domestic prices together with other important determinants of later, in case of a developing country, namely, India.
Design/methodology/approach
In an open economy Philips curve framework, a symmetric model developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) together with a complete asymmetric model developed by Shin et al. (2014) has been applied to assess the transmission of exchange rate changes into the domestic prices (inflation) of India. In addition, non-linear cumulative dynamic multipliers are used to portray the route between disequilibrium position of short run and new long-run equilibrium of the system. The multipliers highlight the asymmetric adjustment paths and/or duration of disequilibrium and therefore add valuable information to the long and short-run asymmetry.
Findings
In symmetric framework, exchange rate pass-through is reported to be incomplete and short-run pass through is found to be lower than the long-run pass through. A contractionary monetary policy stance is observed to decrease inflation in the long-run only and in the short-run, a case for price puzzle is observed, although the coefficient is statistically insignificant. Similarly, the impact of output growth is positive in both the short and long-run and both the coefficients are statically significant. Finally, the oil price inflation is also found to escalate the domestic inflationary pressures in both the short and long run, although the pass-through transmission is lower in the short-run than in the long-run. In case of an asymmetric setting, evidence in favour of directional asymmetry is reported whereby long-run impact of currency appreciation is found to be higher than depreciation. Similarly, a contractionary monetary policy action lowers the inflation, the easy one increases it; however, the impact of both the positive and negative changes in interest rate is found to be symmetric. An increase in GR is found to increase the inflation by a relatively appreciable magnitude than is observed when the fall in GR is reported. The possible reason for this asymmetric response of inflation may be explained in terms of asymmetric behaviour of demand conditions during economic upturns and downturns and downward inflexibility of prices. Finally, the transmission of oil price inflation to domestic inflation is also found to be asymmetric. An increase in oil price inflation leads to an increase in domestic inflation by a higher magnitude. whereas a decrease in it lowers inflation only marginally.
Practical implications
From a policy perspective, it is certainly important for the central banks to monitor the exchange rate changes so as to design the appropriate policy actions to resist any inflationary pressures resulting from the external sector. More importantly, a gauge on the factors that lead to destabilizing exchange rate movements or large currency price fluctuations is highly warranted. The results also highlight the relevance of proper domestic demand management and lowering dependence on oil imports to avoid the unnecessary inflation pressures in the economy.
Originality/value
While some studies have explored the possibilities of asymmetric interactions in the case of India, however, these studies have considered only the partial asymmetric model specifications and have not included a well-established theoretical base to include the other potential determinants of inflation as well. In this regard, the authors applied a complete asymmetric model specification developed by Shin et al. (2014) in an open economy Philips curve framework to assess the transmission of exchange rate changes into the domestic prices (inflation) of India. This paper will enrich the existing literature from a viewpoint of a comprehensive analysis of exchange rate pass-through by taking note of potential asymmetries coupled with other important determinants of inflation.
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Anh The Vo, Chi Minh Ho and Duc Hong Vo
The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to the consumer price index (CPI) at both aggregated and disaggregated levels in…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to the consumer price index (CPI) at both aggregated and disaggregated levels in Vietnam. Updated data of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and bilateral exchange rate (BiER) have been utilized in this study for the comparison purposes.
Design/methodology/approach
Advanced time-series approaches such as a structural vector autoregressive framework, structural impulse response functions (SIRFs), and structural forecast-error variance decomposition (SFEVD) are utilized in this paper.
Findings
Empirical findings from this paper present an incomplete degree of the ERPT to the aggregated CPI. The ERPT based on the BiER is observed to have substantially larger magnitude than the NEER-based pass-through. For the disaggregated level, the degree of the ERPT varies considerably across sub-components of the CPI, with a higher magnitude of the ERPT elasticity being found from the BiER estimations. The index of housing and construction materials has the largest ERPT based on the BiER, followed by the food and foodstuffs (1.00 and 0.56, respectively). The macroeconomic and financial environments as well as an economic integration into the global market may be the main causes of a higher ERPT in Vietnam in comparison with other ASEAN countries.
Research limitations/implications
The significant and incomplete pass-through of the exchange rate in Vietnam can affect firms’ and households’ budget planning, savings and profits. This finding generally implies that the cost of devaluation of the domestic currency affects the society as the whole in terms of welfare. The State Bank of Vietnam should carefully consider the overall effect of welfares when formulating and implementing strategies of currency devaluation. In addition, the Vietnamese economy becomes more sensitive to external vulnerabilities via changes of the exchange rate during an increasingly economic integration into the global market. In order to maintain inflation stability, it is vitally important to reduce the impact of exchange rate movements on the domestic prices, both aggregated and disaggregated levels, by pursuing either monetary policy credibility or inflation targeting.
Originality/value
Previous studies on the ERPT literature in the Asia region or for emerging countries focus mainly on the aggregated data of the CPI. Previous studies were conducted before the global financial crisis in 2008/2009. The current paper is the first of its kind to examine the pass-through from exchange rates to consumer prices in Vietnam using both aggregated and disaggregated data.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine and analyze the exchange rate pass-through into inflation (ERPT) in Vietnam.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine and analyze the exchange rate pass-through into inflation (ERPT) in Vietnam.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper examines and analyzes the ERPT in Vietnam by applying vector autoregression model over the period 2008‒2018.
Findings
The key finding of the research is that from the impulse response results, the transmission of exchange rate shocks to inflation is significant in Vietnam, and this is incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Moreover, the evidence from variance decompositions argues that exchange rate is an important factor to explain the fluctuation of inflation.
Originality/value
In overall, the depreciation or appreciation of exchange rate in Vietnam will considerably impact inflation.
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Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher and Naser Yenus Nuru
This paper aims to examine the asymmetric effects of exchange rate shocks on inflation for a small open economy, namely South Africa, over the period 1970Q1–2020Q1.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the asymmetric effects of exchange rate shocks on inflation for a small open economy, namely South Africa, over the period 1970Q1–2020Q1.
Design/methodology/approach
A threshold vector autoregressive model that allows parameters to switch according to whether a threshold variable crosses an estimated threshold is employed to address the objective of this paper. The threshold value is determined endogenously using the Hansen (1996) test. Generalized impulse responses introduced by Koop et al. (1996) are used to study the effects of exchange rate shocks on inflation depending on their size, sign and timing to the inflation cycle. The authors also employed a Cholesky decomposition identification scheme to identify exchange rate shocks in the non-linear model.
Findings
The results show that there is a non-linearity effect of the exchange rate shock on inflation. In particular, the effects of 1 or 2 standard deviations of positive (appreciation) or negative (depreciation) exchange rate shock on inflation are small in the long run but a bit larger in the high inflation regime than the low inflation regime.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the literature on the non-linear effects of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to inflation for Sub-Saharan African economies in general and the South African economy in particular by incorporating the size and timing of the exchange rate shocks to the inflation cycle.
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One major source of inflation in India is her import of intermediate inputs. In the modern globalized world, where India is deeply integrated with the world economy, exchange rate…
Abstract
One major source of inflation in India is her import of intermediate inputs. In the modern globalized world, where India is deeply integrated with the world economy, exchange rate affects inflation through various channels. This chapter attempts to gauge the extent of exchange rate pass through to inflation. Using the co-integration framework, this chapter finds considerable evidence of imported inflation in the long run, almost 40%–74% for CPI-IW. At the same time, we also discern evidence of short-run price stickiness of CPI-IW. However, for CPI-AL, the extent of pass-through is a meager 14%. This is due to the fact that CPI-IW gives more weightage to imported components while CPI-AL gives more weight to food and clothing, which are mainly domestically produced.
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Lordina Amoah and Meshach Jesse Aziakpono
The purpose of this paper is to reexamine the speed and magnitude of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices in Ghana.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to reexamine the speed and magnitude of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices in Ghana.
Design/methodology/approach
The Johansen Maximum Likelihood approach is employed in the estimation of different models of symmetric and asymmetric ERPT. Specifically asymmetric ERPT models with respect to the direction and size of exchange rate changes are estimated.
Findings
Results reveal that even though a depreciation in the nominal effective exchange rate will lead to an increase of consumer prices in the long-run, it is not statistically significant. Evidence also suggests a significant asymmetry with respect to direction and size of exchange rate changes. This indicates that the right ERPT model is an asymmetric model. Specifically ERPT is found to be incomplete but relatively higher in periods of depreciation than in periods of appreciation; that is 53 percent against 3 percent. ERPT is also higher during episodes of large changes (about 51 percent).
Research limitations/implications
It would have been interesting to analyze the impact on consumer prices through changes in import prices. That approach was not adopted due to lack of consistent data on import prices in Ghana.
Practical implications
It is imperative that the monetary authorities critically monitor exchange rate movements in order to be able to take swift policy action so as to counteract any inflationary pressures from the external sector. In particular, much attention should be paid to events and arrangements that could result in large depreciation of the exchange rate.
Originality/value
While previous studies have assumed a symmetric ERPT model for Ghana, this paper is unique in that it investigates the most appropriate model for examining ERPT in Ghana whether symmetric or an asymmetric.
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The aim of this article is to present the influence of exchange rate changes on the price dynamics in Poland. The knowledge concerning exchange rate pass-through to prices allows…
Abstract
The aim of this article is to present the influence of exchange rate changes on the price dynamics in Poland. The knowledge concerning exchange rate pass-through to prices allows assessing how exchange rates affect inflation and monetary policy in the country. The article consists of two parts. The first part deals with theoretical analysis of the phenomenon of incomplete exchange rate pass-through to prices, including reasons and factors determining this phenomenon. In the next part the range of exchange rate pass-through to prices in Poland is analyzed by using the vector autoregression (VAR) model.
Omneia Helmy, Mona Fayed and Kholoud Hussien
The theoretical and empirical literature stipulated that exchange rate shocks do influence the domestic price of imports. Hence, this paper aims to investigate the underlying…
Abstract
Purpose
The theoretical and empirical literature stipulated that exchange rate shocks do influence the domestic price of imports. Hence, this paper aims to investigate the underlying relationship between the exchange rate and prices known as the exchange rate pass-through.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model, drawing on Bernanke (1986) and Sims (1986), to empirically examine and analyze the pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to domestic prices in Egypt.
Findings
The empirical results of the monthly data between 2003 and 2015 revealed that the exchange rate pass-through in Egypt is fairly substantial but incomplete and slow in the three price indices [IMP, producer price index and consumer price index (CPI)]. However, the impact is more prominent for consumer prices than for any other price index. This finding could be attributed to the fact that the CPI in Egypt is composed of a relatively large number of subsidized commodities and goods with administered prices as well as the authorities’ behavior in manipulating prices (i.e. export ban). This is expected to weaken the transmission of exchange rate shocks.
Practical implications
The result has interesting implications for Egypt’s ability to attain an effective inflation targeting regime.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the literature by assessing the effect of changes in the exchange rate (the Egyptian £ vis-à-vis the US$) on prices using an updated time series from 2003 to 2015. It addresses the limitations of the study of Nafie et al. (2004), which found no strong relationship between the exchange rate and inflation rate in the Egyptian context. One of these limitations was using the CPI, as the only price index.
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This study investigates the relationship between the inflation targeting (IT) framework and the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices in the emerging ASEAN…
Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between the inflation targeting (IT) framework and the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices in the emerging ASEAN economies (i.e., Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand) using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with monthly data covering the sample period from January 1990 to July 2020. The empirical analysis is divided into two subperiods – pre-IT and post-IT periods. The impulse response analysis identified the existence of the ERPT during the pre-IT period and the loss of the ERPT during the post-IT period in all sample economies. The study speculated that the loss of the ERPT is attributable to the conformity to the Taylor principle in the IT framework in all sample economies.
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