The Analysis of Economic Growth and Monetary Policy for Poland and Selected Central and Eastern European Countries With the Use of Dynamic Time Warping ¹

Abstract

Research Background

The comparison between economic growth and the character of monetary policy is one of the most frequently studied issues in policymaking. However, the number of studies incorporating a dynamic time warping approach to analyse the similarity of macroeconomic variables is relatively small.

The Purpose of the Chapter

The study aims at assessing the mutual similarity among various variables representing the financial sector (including the monetary policy by the central bank) and the real sector (e.g. economic growth, industrial production, household consumption expenditure), as well as cross-similarity between both sectors.

Methodology

The analysis is based on the dynamic time warping (DTW) method, which allows for capturing various dimensions of changes of considered variables. This method is almost non-existent in the literature to compare financial and economic time series. The application of this method constitutes the main area of value added of the research. The analysis includes five variables representing the financial sector and five from the real sector. The study covers four countries: Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania and the 2010–2022 period (quarterly data).

Findings

The results show that variables representing the financial sector, including those reflecting monetary policy, are weakly correlated with each other, whereas the variables representing the real economy have a solid mutual similarity. As regards individual variables, for example, GDP fluctuations show relatively substantial similarity to ROE fluctuations – especially in Czechia and Hungary. In the case of Hungary and Romania, CAR fluctuations are consistent with GDP fluctuations. In the case of Poland and Hungary, there is a relatively strong similarity between the economy's monetisation and economic growth. Comparing the individual countries, two clusters of countries can be identified. One cluster includes Poland and Czechia, while another covers Hungary and Romania.

Citation

Bernardelli, M. and Próchniak, M. (2023), "The Analysis of Economic Growth and Monetary Policy for Poland and Selected Central and Eastern European Countries With the Use of Dynamic Time Warping ¹ ", Bukalska, E., Kijek, T. and Sergi, B.S. (Ed.) Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Poland (Entrepreneurship and Global Economic Growth), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 189-205. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-654-220231014