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This study aims to examine the trend of industrial competition between the US and China, which is the most crucial determinant in the future development of the global economy. For decades, the global economy has strengthened the global production network based on the division of labor between countries. Thus, the ripple effect of competition between the two countries should be analyzed in terms of the global production network. Therefore, this study uses the product space model, which explains the development process of industries with comparative advantage by country. We constructed the model based on the products of HS 4-digit code for the 2010–2019 period. The analysis results on the trend of the industrial competitiveness of major countries are as follows. First, the current industrial competitiveness of China is concentrated on low-tech industries. In the case of high-tech items, China shows a tendency of lower export sophistication compared to major manufacturing powerhouses such as Germany, the US, Japan, and Korea. Second, with respect to the possibility of a future industrial structure upgrade evaluated by density, the trend of China overtaking other manufacturing powerhouses is observed. As implied by the product space model, the advancement of the industrial structure through active participation in international trade enhances the industrial competitiveness. Therefore, the outcome of US-China industrial competition depends on who ensures more openness and industrial complexity.

This study examines whether the gains from export sophistication is conditional on the level of globalisation. Previous studies have shown that the impact of export sophistication on growth varies depending on the level of a country's economic development. The authors argue that globalisation plays an important role in influencing the gains from export sophistication, mainly through the competition and scale effects. The competition effect disincentivises domestic firms to engage in export markets, while the scale effect incentivises knowledge accumulation and innovation.

The authors employ data from 163 economies from 1995 to 2018. The authors re-estimate values for export sophistication using ordinary goods from 1995 to 2018 and estimate a growth model using the generalised method of moments (GMM) to control for endogeneity and simultaneity issues.

The results show that the gains from export sophistication and globalisation is greater for economies with higher levels of economic development compared to economies with low levels of economic development. Moreover, the authors find that the gains from export sophistication are conditional on the level of globalisation. The authors’ results show that the marginal impact of export sophistication diminishes as developing economies become more globalised, while advanced economies gain more from export sophistication when globalisation precedes at a higher level.

Previous studies have generally examined the conditional growth effects of export sophistication on trade, economic development and other structural factors. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the impact of globalisation, and the authors exploit the multidimensional concept of globalisation to test the hypothesis.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-01-2023-0001.

This paper aims to examine the experience of ten Asian countries with respect to growth, trade and FDI. It seeks to explore relationships between the nature of exports and imports and growth, as well as the relevance of FDI as a channel for these relationships.

The paper opted for an empirical approach. It included collecting standardize data on international trade, GDP per capita, and FDI inflows. The trade data and GDP data were used in creating the productivity level for exports and imports for all of the relevant countries. The paper analyses how these productivity levels compare to GDP per capita, change over time, and relate to FDI inflows.

The authors find that FDI is positively correlated with higher productivity levels in exports and imports for many of the countries in their sample. The effect for imports is particularly apparent for imported intermediate goods, reflecting the emergence of greater trade fragmentation. In turn, both imported intermediates and exports that are associated with higher productivity levels are positively correlated with per capita GDP.

There are a couple of research limitations. First, the work does not determine causality; future econometric work should help to identify the causality mechanism. Second, trade fragmentation might lead to an overestimation of “productivity” levels; future work should try to identify the extent of the bias and a way to fix the issue.

This work may have implications for how policymakers view trade and FDI policies, and the possible links between them, in the context of promoting growth.

This work may have implications for understanding the links between growth and structural change in the economy, which is in turn linked to societal change.

This paper brings together empirical evidence that integrates discussions of FDI, trade fragmentation and improvements in the productivity of traded goods.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the degree of structural change of the Philippine economy and examine how linkages among sectors evolved during 1979‐2000.

The authors use the input‐output tables of the Philippines to draw the economic landscape of the Philippines and to examine the degree of structural transformation that the economy has undergone since the 1970s. They perform a linkage analysis of 11 major economic sectors and through the multiplier product matrix, plot the economic landscape of the Philippines for 1979‐2000. This allows identification of the sectors that have exhibited the highest intersectoral linkages. The authors also undertake a more disaggregated analysis within manufacturing and consider export sophistication and competitiveness.

Manufacturing is consistently the key sector of the Philippine economy. Resource and scale‐intensive manufacturing industries exhibit the highest linkages. The authors also find a growing impact on the economy of private services and transportation, communication and storage sectors, probably due to the globalization of these activities. But overall, compared to manufacturing, the service sector exhibits lower intersectoral linkages.

The economic landscape of the Philippines shows the structural changes that have taken place. The empirical findings lead to the conclusion that the Philippines cannot afford to leapfrog the industrialization stage and depend solely on a service‐oriented economy, when the potential for growth still lies primarily on manufacturing. The results of this study can be used for government policy formulation. The government should institute policy reforms that directly target the industrial sector to accelerate economic growth.

We provide straightforward new nonparametric methods for testing conditional independence using local polynomial quantile regression, allowing weakly dependent data. Inspired by Hausman's (1978) specification testing ideas, our methods essentially compare two collections of estimators that converge to the same limits under correct specification (conditional independence) and that diverge under the alternative. To establish the properties of our estimators, we generalize the existing nonparametric quantile literature not only by allowing for dependent heterogeneous data but also by establishing a weak consistency rate for the local Bahadur representation that is uniform in both the conditioning variables and the quantile index. We also show that, despite our nonparametric approach, our tests can detect local alternatives to conditional independence that decay to zero at the parametric rate. Our approach gives the first nonparametric tests for time-series conditional independence that can detect local alternatives at the parametric rate. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that our tests perform well in finite samples. We apply our test to test for a key identifying assumption in the literature on nonparametric, nonseparable models by studying the returns to schooling.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of foreign trade liberalization and trade reforms on the process of structural upgrading, and explore the extent to which they provide impetus for exports.

This paper accounts for trade liberalization dates, cumulative years in open regime, and the density of 1,006 products in the patterns of comparative advantage for 132 countries from 1975 to 2000. The effects of trade liberalizations and trade reforms in open regime on future export performance are estimated by using various empirical strategies.

This paper finds that the speed of moving from simple poor-country goods to rich-country goods in export depends not only on having a route to nearby goods of increasingly higher value, but also on the increase in the cumulative years in open regime. In particular, a 1 percent change in the relatedness across products with trade reform in open regime increases the probability of exporting a new product by 2.0 percent more.

A contribution of this paper is that it measures the extent to which trade reform in open regime affects the evolution of comparative advantage, even after taking account of the role of relatedness of exported products as in the Hausmann and Klinger (2006, 2007). In this paper, empirical findings of a comprehensive product level cross-country time-series data analysis may contribute to generalize the role of trade reform on structural upgrading not only for a pro-competitive export country like Korea but also for a typical developing country.

We investigate the causal relationships between volatility implied in Major Market Index (MMI) options and its component stocks' options from January, 1987 to October, 1989. We find that MMI implied volatility Granger causes component stock implied volatility for all twenty component stocks, which is consistent with the hypothesis that changes in volatility in index options markets leads volatility in underlying component (cash) markets. When we further analyze the sample by subperiod, we find that the causal relationships are insignificant in the period after the October 1987 crash, which is consistent with the hypothesis that exchange and regulatory actions taken after the crash weakened the influence of index options markets on cash markets. Trading strategies and programs involving stock index options and futures have been blamed for increasing volatility of the stock market. Indeed, trading in index futures and options markets has been blamed for much of the drop in stock prices in the crash of October 1987. After the crash, regulators took several actions to reduce the influence of futures and options market volatility on cash market volatility. If regulators' fears were legitimate and their efforts were successful, the volatility linkage between index options markets and their underlying cash markets should have been weakened. This paper provides two important contributions to our understanding of the volatility implications of index options markets. First, we examine the causality relationships between index and component stock implied volatility to assess whether or not changes in volatility in the index option market lead changes in volatility in the underlying component stock markets. Second, we test whether the causal relationships differ before and after the October 1987 crash to assess whether or not regulatory actions after the crash caused a change in these relationships. We measure volatility using implied standard deviations (ISDs) from options on the Major Market Index (MMI) and its component stocks. We form time series of ISDs for both the MMI and its component stocks, and then apply Granger causality tests to the series. For the full sample period of January 1987 to October 1989, we find that changes in index ISDs do Granger cause changes in component stock ISDs for all twenty component stocks, evidence consistent with the notion that volatility in index option market leads volatility in the component (cash) market. When we analyze the sample by subperiod, however, we find that the significant Granger causality holds only in the period before the October 1987 crash. Post‐crash subperiods show insignificant causality relationships, which suggests that efforts taken by exchange officials and regulators to reduce the influence of volatility in the index options and futures markets on cash market volatility were successful. The remainder of the paper is structured as follows. In Section I we discuss the potential for causal relationships between index option markets and their component markets and review related literature. Section II contains a discussion of our methodology and a description of our data. Section III contains a discussion of our results and Section IV concludes.

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to estimate the export demand equation for China with appropriate specification that incorporates exchange rate in the relative price variable. Design/methodology/approach – Alternative time series techniques such as general to specific and Johansen maximum likelihood are used with annual data from 1974‐2004. The augmented Dicky–Fuller and Elliot–Rothenberg–Stock methods are also employed to test the time series properties of the variables. Findings – The paper confirms that there is a cointegration relationship between real exports, real income and relative prices in China. The long‐run income elasticity is around 1.3 and the relative price elasticity is around −1.5. In addition, the export demand functions are temporally stable in China. Research limitations/implications – The structural breaks and trade shock analysis were ignored because that would have made this paper much longer. Practical implications – The results imply that exports are an engine of growth in China. China's exports are competitive in the international market and it has the option to devalue its currency to promote export earnings. However, the paper argues that in current global economic crises, trade promotion policies such as subsidies, tax exceptions and special credit lines should be encouraged. Originality/value – The paper assesses the magnitudes of export elasticities with a specification that includes exchange rate in relative price variable.