Search results

Se estudian los determinantes y la evolución de la actividad bursátil mensual en el mercado accionario colombiano de 2007 a 2016.

Para ello se emplean modelos de series de tiempo tipo ARIMAX y GARCH, incluyendo variables exógenas, recomendadas por la literatura previa.

Encontramos que la actividad bursátil puede ser pronosticada en buena parte por el valor rezagado a un mes y las innovaciones de cinco y 12 meses. También contribuyen a predecirla, como variables exógenas, una dummy de rendimientos positivos en los últimos tres meses, la presencia de emisiones primarias y el índice VIX de volatilidad del SP500. Estos resultados se mantienen en un alto grado al emplear medidas alternativas de actividad bursátil, el número total de operaciones y la rotación.

Se propone un modelo de predicción de la actividad bursátil que puede servir de modelo para otros mercados accionarios de Latinoamérica. El modelo obtenido es altamente predictivo del valor transado total del mercado al siguiente mes. La estimación de la actividad bursátil es de utilidad para instituciones como la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, reguladores de los mercados financieros, así como para grandes inversionistas institucionales.

El propósito central de los mercados financieros secundarios consiste en facilitar la transacción de activos financieros, lo que debe reflejarse en alta actividad bursátil, tanto en número de operaciones como en valor transado total. La posibilidad de transar altos montos es una medida importante del desarrollo de un mercado financiero. De esta manera, el modelo aquí propuesto puede usarse para monitorizar y explicar el desarrollo del mercado. En particular, se evidencia el nocivo efecto de la debacle de Interbolsa a finales de 2012 y el positivo efecto de las emisiones primarias.

Este es el primer paper en estudiar la actividad bursátil del mercado accionario colombiano en años recientes. Sirve como modelo para el estudio y seguimiento de esta variable en otros mercados accionarios latinoamericanos.

To study the determinants and evolution of the trading activity in the Colombian Stock Market from 2007 to 2016.

ARMA time series models were used, including several explanatory variables recommended by previous literature.

We find that stock market activity can be predicted to a large extent by its lags, and that positive returns in the last three months, emissions and the VIX index are also explicative variables, as suggested by empirical studies in other countries and theoretical models of market microstructure. These results are robust by using alternative measures of trading activity, total number of trades and turnover.

The main contribution of this study is the analysis of the trading activity of the Colombian Stock Market, a critical variable for monitoring the development of any financial market.

The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of X‐Stream, the new trading platform of the Colombian Stock Exchange since February 2009, on the market quality.

The authors test the effect of X‐Stream on market quality variables, such as liquidity (bid‐ask spread and price impact), daily and intraday volatility and trading activity, using mean tests, panel data and conditional variance models. The authors use a proprietary database of transactions and orders from the exchange.

The evidence suggests that X‐Stream improved the liquidity and trading activity and reduced the volatility of the overall market, especially of the most liquid stocks.

These results support the investment on more sophisticated trading systems in emerging markets.

Contributing to the literature on market quality, this paper provides novel evidence of the effect of reforms on market design, trading rules and operational capabilities on a small and low‐liquidity emerging stock market.

Se investiga el efecto de la plataforma de transacción de acciones de BVC, X‐Stream, en la calidad del mercado accionario a partir de su lanzamiento en Febrero del 2009. Partiendo de una base de datos transaccional de BVC, se emplean varios modelos econométricos para medir el efecto de la nueva plataforma en las volatilidades diaria e intradiaria, la liquidez (margen proporcional de oferta y demanda e impacto en el precio) y la actividad bursátil. La evidencia demuestra que X‐Stream mejoró la liquidez y redujo la volatilidad del mercado accionario como un todo, pero especialmente en las acciones más líquidas. Esta investigación contribuye a la literatura en calidad de mercado al aportar nueva evidencia sobre el efecto de los cambios de diseño, reglas de transacción y capacidades operacionales en un mercado accionario de reducidos tamaño y liquidez. De esta manera, sirve como argumento para justificar inversiones en sistemas avanzados de transacción en mercados emergentes.

This paper aims to discuss current work and further steps of the psychological hotline launched by the National Psychological Association of Ukraine (NPA), along with a call for action to mental health professionals worldwide.

This paper describes the training and support of the NPA’s hotline staff as well as reflections on the hotline’s work from June 2022 to April 2023.

With broad international support, the NPA’s psychological hotline currently operates in 21 countries providing psychological assistance and referrals to other service providers within Ukraine and abroad. The authors propose further steps of its work, including international collaboration.

Providing citizens of Ukraine with broad public access to evidence-based remote psychological support through NPA’s hotlines is a high priority considering the war’s negative impact on mental health diverse and the limited capacity of the state mental health system.

This study presents evidence of increasing regionalization of international trade among 10 South American countries from 1980 to 2001. Regionalization of trade in South America is best described as an increasing trade among Spanish-speaking countries and increasing trade within the two regional agreements, the Andean Community and Mercosur. There is also evidence of border erosion in the continent, especially among the Mercosur members. These results emerge from a simple statistical analysis and are also economically significant when tested in a consistent gravity equation that controls for a set of macroeconomic and geographic variables.

Can changes in the trade of the world's largest trading countries be considered more global? Or should they be labeled as more regional? We investigated these questions for the G7 countries for the time period from 1980 to 1997. We found that the usual dichotomy of global–regional is not rich enough to answer these questions because globalization can be measured in terms of both physical and cultural distance. Our new taxonomy allows for testing these separate impacts on world trade and suggests that trade changes are best described as regional, though with some qualification. With respect to physical distance, we find that trade is clearly becoming more regional. On the cultural dimension, however, we find conflicting results. These results are robust to a series of tests. We find the same pattern at industry level, except for paper products and motor vehicles. The regionalization pattern holds for both imports to and exports from the G7, but it is stronger for exports.

Virtually all parents want their children to succeed academically. How to achieve this goal, though, is far from clear. Specifically, the temporal spacing between adjacent births has been shown to affect educational outcomes. While many of these studies have produced substantial and statistically significant results, these results have been relatively narrow in their application due to data limitations. Using Colorado birth certificates matched to schooling outcomes, we investigate the relationship between birth spacing and educational attainment. We instrument birth spacing with a previous pregnancy that did not result in a live birth. We find no overall effect of spacing on either the first or second children’s grade 3–10 test scores. Stratifying by the sexes of the children, we find that when the first child is a boy and the second a girl, an extra year of spacing increases the first child’s math, reading, and writing test scores by 0.07–0.08 SD, while there is no impact on the second child. This is the first study to do such an analysis using matched large-scale birth and elementary to high school administrative data, and to leverage a very large dataset to stratify our results by the sexes of the children.

Two fundamental reasons that account for the domestic bias of consumption are distance and borders. Distance proxies for unobservable trading costs, which include, among other things, transport and administrative costs. Distance is a powerful deterrent to international trade. This fact is illustrated by considering the situation of Bahrain and Qatar, Belgium and India, and Indonesia and Guyana, which are, respectively, the closest (55.5mi), the median (4,414.7mi), and the farthest (12,351.1mi) country pairs in a large sample of bilateral trade flows (see Chapter 2). For Bahrain and Qatar, distance is estimated to reduce the estimate of bilateral trade flows by 39%; for Belgium and India, the reduction is 58%; for Indonesia and Guyana, the reduction is 121% (it exceeds the value of bilateral transactions). The success of the gravity model in explaining bilateral trade flows is due, to no small measure, to distance. For example, the standard trade model of complete specialization, without trading costs, makes two strong predictions. The first is that a country will import goods from all other countries in the world and the second that bilateral trade flows are proportional to the income of the two countries. Both predictions are way off the mark. Countries import from a small fraction of the potential pool of exporters and incomes alone over-predict actual trade flows by a large margin.

Taking as reference a sample of around a hundred biographical materials on entrepreneurs in Mexico and Colombia, the purpose of this chapter is dual. Both to show the relevance and varied modalities that the biographical approach has enjoyed in business history research since the 1990s, and to display the intrinsic potential this modality of scholarship entails for entrepreneurship endeavors. In particular, it discusses the prospects to incorporate this body of empirical works into the large Latin American audience attending undergraduate, graduate and executive education programs in business, economic history and related fields. The chapter is organized into three sections. The first two are devoted to illustrate relevant patterns in the entrepreneurial trajectory of individuals and entrepreneurial families studied in each of the two countries under consideration. The last section identifies some conceptual issues that may impact current debates on Latin American business development as exemplified in recent business and economic history journal venues and scholarly conferences.