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This paper aims to estimate a New Keynesian small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Egypt using Bayesian techniques and data for the period FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4 to assess monetary and fiscal policy interactions and their impact on economic stabilization. Outcomes of monetary and fiscal authority commitment to policy instruments, interest rate, government spending and taxes, are evaluated using Taylor-type and optimal simple rules.

The study extends the stylized micro-founded small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model, proposed by Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), by explicitly introducing fiscal policy behavior into the model (Fragetta and Kirsanova, 2010 and Çebi, 2011). The model is calibrated using quarterly data for Egypt on key macroeconomic variables during FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4; and Bayesian methods are used in estimation.

The results show that monetary and fiscal policy instruments in Egypt contribute to economic stability through their effects on inflation, output and debt stock. The monetary policy Taylor rule estimates reveal that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) attaches significant importance to anti-inflationary policy and (to a lesser extent) to output targeting but responds weakly to nominal exchange rate variations. CBE decisions are significantly influenced by interest rate smoothing. Egyptian fiscal policy has an important role in output and government debt stabilization. Additionally, the fiscal authority chooses pro-cyclical government spending and counter-cyclical tax policies for output stabilization. Again, past values of the fiscal instruments are influential in the evolution of the future fiscal policy-making process.

A few studies have examined the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in Egypt within a unified framework. The presented paper integrates the monetary and fiscal policy analysis within a unified dynamic general equilibrium open economy rational expectations framework. Without such a framework, it would not be easy to jointly analyze monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms for output, inflation and debt. Also, it would be neither possible to contrast the outcome of monetary and fiscal authorities commitment to a simple Taylor instrument rule vis-à-vis optimal policy outcomes nor to assess the behavior of monetary and fiscal agents in macroeconomic stability in context of an active/passive policy decisions framework.

This paper aims to estimate the impact of the 2000s commodity boom in the major Latin American economies.

The author used a structural vector autorregresive analysis where the selection of variables is conditional on a New Keynesian Model for a small open economy.

The evidence indicates that the Argentinean nominal exchange rate appreciated less while its output and inflation grew more than those of the other nations when subjected to commodity shocks. These results are interpreted as a more aggressive leaning-against-the-wind intervention by Argentina, probably to avoid the Dutch disease. Although the effects with regard to output were indeed stronger in Argentina, this was only at the expense of higher inflation and volatility suffered during the boom.

At the time of the writing of this paper, no work had evaluated Argentinean underperformace to the manner in which its exchange rate policy was handled in comparison with the rest of the region during the boom. This paper intends to fill this gap.

This paper aims to analyse the stabilizing macroeconomic effects of economic policies during the COVID-19 crisis in Spain.

The contribution of the structural shocks that explain the behaviour of the main macroeconomic aggregates during 2020 are estimated, and the effects of economic policies are simulated using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model estimated for the Spanish economy.

The results highlight the importance of supply and demand shocks in explaining the COVID-19 crisis. The annual fall in gross domestic product (GDP) moderates at least by 7.6 points in the most intense period of the crisis, thanks to these stabilizing policies. Finally, the potential effects of Next Generation EU in the Spanish economy are estimated. Assuming that Spain may receive from the EU between 1.5 and 2.25 percentage points (pp) of GDP, activity could increase to between 2 and 3 pp in 2024.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the exercises and findings are original. All these results show the usefulness of a DSGE model, such as the estimated rational expectation model for Spain, as a practical tool for the applied economic analysis, the macroeconomic assessment of economic policies and the understanding of the Spanish economy.

The authors explore the hypothesis that some movements in commodity prices are anticipated (news shocks) and can trigger aggregate fluctuations in small open emerging economies. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective.

The authors build a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous commodity production. There are five exogenous processes: a country-specific interest rate shock that responds to commodity price fluctuations, a productivity (TFP) shock for each sector and a commodity price shock. Both TFP and commodity price shocks are composed of unanticipated and anticipated components.

The authors show that news shocks to commodity prices lead to higher output, investment and consumption, and a countercyclical movement in the trade-balance-to-output ratio. The authors also show that commodity price news shocks explain about 24% of output aggregate fluctuations in the small open economy.

Given the importance of both anticipated and unanticipated commodity price shocks, policymakers should pay attention to developments in commodity markets when designing policies to attenuate the business cycles. Future research should investigate the design of optimal fiscal and monetary policies in SOE subject to news shocks in commodity prices.

This paper contributes to the knowledge of the sources of fluctuations in emerging economies highlighting the importance of a new source: news shocks in commodity prices.

China's economic transition is essentially the process of China's institutional changes. During the changes, the appearance of institutional innovation is not regular; instead, it is intermittent and random. The purpose of this paper is to show that the fitful appearance of institutional innovation is the root of China's economic growth and fluctuations.

This paper constructs a real business cycle (RBC) model introducing the institutional factor expressed in the quantitative form under the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework by measuring China's institutional changes quantitatively.

By comparing the characteristics of the actual economic data with those of the simulated economic data, we find that this RBC model can explain 94.44%, 66.07%, 23.46%, 21.03% and 15.45% of the cyclical fluctuations in output, investment, labor, consumption and capital, respectively.

The impulse response analysis finds that the institutional shocks have a relatively long duration, lasting about 30 years, and decline slowly over time, while technological shocks decline relatively fast, lasting approximately ten years.

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the teaching of undergraduate macroeconomics.

To suggest a roadmap, based on a consumption function, to be used by instructors willing to teach the Lucas Critique subject.

Therefore, this paper proposes a lesson, which consists of three parts, to help undergraduates better understand the subject: (1) a grading exercise to bring the topic closer to students’ lives; (2) a Keynesian and an optimal consumption function, followed by an example based on an unemployment insurance policy; and (3) two optional topics consisting of extensions of the optimal consumption function and some empirical results related to the Lucas Critique.

The Lucas Critique influenced the evolution of research in macroeconomics, but it is not easily grasped in a classroom.

The author augments an otherwise standard business-cycle model with a rich government sector and adds monopolistic competition in the product market and rigid prices, as well as rigid wages a la Calvo (1983) in the labor market.

This specification with the nominal wage rigidity, when calibrated to Bulgarian data after the introduction of the currency board (1999–2018), allows the framework to reproduce better observed variability and correlations among model variables and those characterizing the labor market in particular.

As nominal wage frictions are incorporated, the variables become more persistent, especially output, capital stock, investment and consumption, which help the model match data better, as compared to a setup without rigidities.

The findings suggest that technology shocks seem to be the dominant source of economic fluctuations, but nominal wage rigidities as well as the monopolistic competition in the product market, might be important factors of relevance to the labor market dynamics in Bulgaria, and such imperfections should be incorporated in any model that studies cyclical movements in employment and wages.

The computational experiments performed in this paper suggest that wage rigidities are a quantitatively important model ingredient, which should be taken into consideration when analyzing the effects of different policies in Bulgaria, which is a novel result.

This study attempts to conduct a comparative analysis between dynamic and static asset allocation to achieve the long-term target return on asset liability management (ALM). This study conducts asset allocation using the ex ante expected rate of return through the outlook of future economic indicators because past economic indicators or realized rate of returns which are used as input data for expected rate of returns in the “building block” method, most adopted by domestic pension funds, does not fully reflect the future economic situation. Vector autoregression is used to estimate and forecast long-term interest rates. Furthermore, it is applied to gross domestic product and consumer price index estimation because it is widely used in financial time series data. Based on asset allocation simulations, this study derived the following insights: first, economic indicator filtering and upper-lower bound computation is needed to reduce the expected return volatility. Second, to reach the ALM goal, more stocks should be allocated than low-yielding assets. Finally, dynamic asset allocation which has been mirroring economic changes actively has a higher annual yield and risk-adjusted return than static asset allocation.

Since 2000, China, along with the USA, UK, France, Japan and many other developed countries have drawn up new blueprints for the development of a marine economy. At present, international marine economics research has entered into a new period of development, and the research methods of ocean econometrics are becoming more complex and mature. The purpose of this paper is to review the progress of international marine econometrics research and gives the development direction of marine econometrics.

The Web of Science core collection database was utilized, harvesting data from 1996 to May 2018, measuring the marine economy research from 1,489 articles as its sample, using CiteSpace visualization analysis tools.

Mapping the knowledge map from annual international marine economic metrology, literature identification, keywords, involving disciplines and related journals, countries (regions) and research and analyzing the research status of reveals the research frontiers of international marine economy measurement (learning) by using CiteSpace.

The conceptions and characteristics of marine econometrics are defined and analyzed, and the theoretical method of marine econometrics is sorted out. Mapping the knowledge diagram of marine econometrics and discussing the research status of international marine economics, and clarifying the existing problems, future opportunities and challenges of international marine econometrics research.

The effectiveness of fiscal policy is an interesting field in literature of macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth under contributions from the differences in institutions and external debt levels.

The authors use panel data from 2002 to 2014 from 20 emerging markets and use GMM estimators for unbalanced panel data.

The results show positive growth effects of fiscal policy across emerging markets in the examined periods. Notably, the improvement in institutions promotes higher crowding-in effects of fiscal policy. In addition, this paper finds interesting evidences that the external debt has non-linear effects on economic growth, whereas the heterogeneous effects of fiscal policy on economic growth as positive effects in low indebted level and negative effect in high indebted level may explain the mechanism of this non-linear relationship.

This study proposes the non-linear relationship of fiscal growth effects in emerging economies under the dynamic of debt levels.