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This study aims to investigate the possibilities of cryptocurrencies as hedges and diversifiers in the Indian stock market before and during financial crisis due to the pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.

Researchers have used daily data on cryptocurrencies and Indian stock prices from March 10, 2015 to August 26, 2022. The researchers have used the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC)-GARCH model to determine the volatility spillover and dynamic correlation between stocks and digital currencies. Further, researchers have explored hedge ratio, portfolio weight and hedging effectiveness using the estimates of the DCC-GARCH model.

The findings indicate a negative conditional correlation between equities and cryptocurrencies before the crisis and a positive conditional correlation except for Tether during the crisis. Which implies that cryptocurrencies serve as a hedging asset in the stock market before a crisis but are not more than a diversifier during the crisis, except for Tether. Notably, Tether serves as a safe haven during times of crisis. Finally, the study suggests that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin and Ripple are the most effective diversifiers for Indian stocks during the crisis.

This study makes several contributions to the existing literature. First, it compares the hedge and diversification roles of cryptocurrencies in the Indian stock market before and during crisis. Second, the study findings provide insights on risk hedging and can serve as a guide for investors. Third, it may help rational investors avoid underestimating risk while constructing portfolios, particularly in times of financial turmoil.

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the “asset ratio” rule defined in Turkey as part of measures taken to stimulate the economy amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The main objective of the new rule was to boost credit growth in the economy and provide lending for credit-constrained households and firms that are in need. A secondary aim was to shift the denomination structure of the deposits toward domestic currency. Hence, the paper focus particularly on how the policy affected the growth rate of loans and the share of domestic deposits relative to foreign ones among the commercial banks. The policy was also heavily criticized due to the possibility that it will subjugate the banking system to excessive risk. The paper explore this possible impact by measuring how much the policy affected the default risk allowances in the banking system.

The new policy required banks with deposits above a threshold level, i.e. large banks, to maintain a certain asset ratio. Banks with deposits below the threshold, i.e. small banks, were held exempt from it. The paper implement a difference-in difference methodology to assess the quantitative impacts of the asset ratio policy by taking large banks as the treatment group, and small banks as the control group.

Difference-in-difference estimation results suggest that the asset ratio policy resulted in a 9.6% rise in loans and an 8.4% rise in government securities. Deposits also increased, with no significant change in their composition. The policy initially generated a 7% increase in the credit risk allowances of banks in the treatment group, which vanished in the following periods. Based on all these, the paper argue that the policy was successful in providing liquidity to the economy without jeopardizing the financial stability.

The findings of this study show that asset ratio policy is effective in increasing credit growth in countries with limited policy space such as Turkey. While saying this, the importance of the robust and prudent structure of the banking system in the economy should be underlined. Otherwise, the policy may have an unintended consequence of raising systemic risk. The policy suggestions also apply to advanced countries where the monetary policy has reached a natural limit due to the zero lower bound (ZLB). The ZLB problem encouraged these countries to use quantitative easing schemes in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis, just like the global financial crisis. However, it may take a long time to undo the effects of this policy on the balance sheets of central banks. In such cases, asset ratio policy can also be considered as an alternative tool for advanced economies notwithstanding the fact that the banking system should be prudent, well-capitalized and the country should have enough fiscal space. The main objective of the asset ratio policy was to help SMEs that were in urgent need of liquidity at the beginning of the crisis. The bank balance sheet data used in this paper does not contain information about the borrowers of the loans extended during the implementation of the policy. Analysis of this dimension using matched bank-firm level data will better demonstrate the success of the policy in achieving this goal. The paper address this as the main limitation of the paper and leave that analysis for future research.

This paper provides an important contribution to the literature by assessing a new unique policy whose objective is to stimulate loans and mitigate the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the economy. The policy in question is predicted to have effects on the asset and liability structure and risk exposure of the banking system in Turkey. The quantitative analysis in this study estimates these impacts and discusses the effectiveness of the new policy in providing a relief for firms and households in need. Whether or not the policy caused a disruption in the sound structure of the banking system in Turkey is another question addressed in the paper.

This paper aims to investigate the conditional equicorrelation and cross-quantile dependence between the DeFi, European and GCC currency markets (Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates).

This study applies the GARCH-DECO model and cross-quantilogram framework.

The findings reveal evidence of weak and negative average equicorrelations between the examined markets through time, excluding the COVID-19 outbreak and Russia–Ukraine conflict, which is consistent with the literature examining relationships in different markets. From the cross-quantilogram model, the authors note that the dependence between DeFi, EURO and GCC foreign exchange rate markets is greatest in the short run and diminishes over the medium- and long-term horizons, indicating rapid information processing between the markets under consideration, as most innovations are transmitted in the short term.

For the pairs of DeFi and currency markets, the static and dynamic optimal weights and hedging ratios are also estimated, providing new empirical data for portfolio managers and investors.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the most important research looking into the conditional correlation and predictability between the DeFi, EURO and GCC foreign exchange markets. More importantly, this study provides the first empirical proof of the safe-haven, hedging and diversification qualities of DeFi, EURO and GCC currencies, and this work also covers the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war with the use of a single dynamic measure produced by the GARCH-DECO model. In addition, the directional predictability between variables under consideration using the cross-quantilogram model is examined, which can be capable of capturing the asymmetry in the quantile dependent structure. The findings are helpful for both policymakers and investors in improving their trading selections and strategies for risk management in different market conditions.

The authors examine the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the stock market, forex market and gold market of Pakistan.

By using the daily data of COVID-19 confirmed cases, stock index, foreign currency rates and gold prices for the period 10 March 2020 to 16 October 2020, the authors explore that the stock index negatively responds to the corona pandemic.

Additionally, the authors observe the price hikes in gold and foreign currency corresponding to the number of COVID-19 positive cases.

The study analysis unveils that the stock market adversely responds to a pandemic, whereas, forex and gold markets serve as a safe haven for investors at the time of financial distress.

This study complements the literature and provides empirical evidence of the stock market, the gold market and foreign currency market, in the perspective of Pakistan.

This study investigates the interactions between the US daily public debt and currency power under impacts of the Covid-19 crisis.

The authors employ the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) modeling to explore the interactions between daily changes in the US Debt to the Penny and the US Dollar Index. The data sets are from April 01, 1993, to May 27, 2022, in which noticeable points include the Covid-19 outbreak (January 01, 2020) and the US vaccination campaign commencement (December 14, 2020).

The authors find that the daily change in public debt positively affects the USD index return, and the past performance of currency power significantly mitigates the Debt to the Penny. Due to the Covid-19 outbreak, the impact of public debt on currency power becomes negative. This effect remains unchanged after the pandemic. These findings indicate that policy-makers could feasibly obtain both the budget stability and currency power objectives in pursuit of either public debt sustainability or power of currency. However, such policies should be considered that public debt could be a negative influencer during crisis periods.

The authors propose a pioneering approach to explore the relationship between leading and lagging indicators of an economy as characterized by their daily data sets. In accordance, empirical findings of this study inspire future research in relation to public debt and its connections with several economic indicators.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-08-2022-0581

This paper aims to empirically investigate the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt using structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The data covers the period between 1980 and 2016, where exchange regime has been changed more than once.

This paper investigates the source of real exchange rate fluctuations for the period between 1980 and 2016 using the SVAR method. The SVAR method will incorporate real gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and price level in a multidimensional equations system. However, impulse response function (IRF) and error variance decompositions (EVDC) will be generated by the system to have a behavioral insight of real exchange rate in response to economic shocks.

The IRF and EVDC results indicate a significant impact of demand shocks over the real exchange rate relative to supply shocks and monetary shocks in the period between 1980 and 2016. On the other hand, monetary shocks will have a negligible effect on the real exchange rate in the short run and converging to its previous level in the covering period of the study.

In the best of the authors' knowledge, the topic of the source of the real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt has not been discussed in a wide range due to the lack of time series data. However, this study provides constructed data for REER for Egypt with the published method in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, the study involves theoretical and econometric modeling to ensure the reliability of the economic results.

This study aims to investigate the decline of American hegemony as one of the most prominent crises of the modern world order, from a broader perspective that transcends narrow traditional interpretations. The paper assumes that the September 11 events in 2001 have launched the actual decline in American hegemony. Tracing the evolution of US global strategy over the past two decades, the study seeks to analyze the main causes and repercussions of the decline of US hegemony, which would provide a bird’s eye view of what the current global system is going through.

The study investigates the decline in American hegemony through a longitudinal within-case analysis which focuses on the causal path of decline in hegemony in the case of the USA, since the events of September 11, 2001, and tries to identify the causal mechanisms behind this decline. Following George and Bennet (2005), the study uses process tracing to examine its research question. Process-tracing method seeks to identify the intervening causal process – causal chain or causal mechanisms or the steps in a causal process – that leads to the outcome of a particular case in a specific historical context (Mahoney, 2000; Bennet and Elman, 2006). The study chose this method, as it offers more potential for identifying causal mechanisms and theory testing (George and Bennet, 2005); it opted for a specific procedure, among the variety of process-tracing procedures listed by George and Bennet, which is the detailed narrative presented as a chronicle, accompanied by explicit causal hypotheses. Using this process tracing procedure, the study assumes that American hegemony has witnessed dramatic changes in the aftermath of critical junctures, particularly the events of September 11, 2001, and the financial crises, 2008, which contributed significantly to this decline. Consequently, it traces the impact of these events on the state of American hegemony, in light of the review of contributions of different theories on hegemony in the field of international relations, both traditional and critical. Consequently, introducing the theoretical framework used in the study (the four-dimensional model of hegemony), which transcends criticisms of previous theories.

The crises of the modern world order and the decline of American hegemony – being the main manifestation of such crises – revealed the inability of the traditional and critical approaches reviewed in the study to interpret this decline and those crises. The reason behind that was the inability of these interpretations to reflect the various dimensions of American hegemony and its decline since the September 11 events. This highlights the importance of using the four-dimensional model, which combines different factors in the analysis and has proved to be an appropriate model for studying the case of American hegemony and its decline after the events of September 11, as it deals with the phenomenon of hegemony as a social relationship based on specific social networks.

Despite the currency and relevance of the decline of US hegemony for both the academic and political world, the topic needed to be analyzed systemically and addressed in a thorough scientific way. Through the application of theoretical concepts into the analysis of empirical data, this study contributes to a field where too often the discourse about decline of American hegemony is led without the required theoretical or conceptual considerations.

The idea of this study is to provide a solid Financial Condition Index (FCI) that allows the monetary transmission policy to be monitored in a country which in recent decades has suffered from major financial and monetary crises.

The authors construct three FCIs for Mexico to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy under an inflation-targeting regime. Using monthly data from 1995 to 2017, the authors estimate FCIs with two different methodologies and build the index by taking into account the mechanism of transmission of monetary policy and incorporating the most relevant financial variables.

This study’s results show that, likewise for developing countries as Mexico, an FCI could be a useful tool for managing monetary policy in reducing macroeconomic fluctuations.

Apart from building a predictor of possible financial stress, the authors construct an FCI for a central bank that pursues inflation targeting and to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy.

1. We construct three FCIs for Mexico to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy under an inflation-targeting regime.

2. The FCIs are based on (1) a vector autoregression model (VAR); (2) an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and (3) a factor-augmented vector autoregression model (FAVAR).

3. FCI could become a new target for monetary policy within a hybrid inflation-targeting framework.

4. FCI could be a good tool for managing monetary policy in developing countries with a low-inflation environment.

We construct three FCIs for Mexico to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy under an inflation-targeting regime.

The FCIs are based on (1) a vector autoregression model (VAR); (2) an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and (3) a factor-augmented vector autoregression model (FAVAR).

FCI could become a new target for monetary policy within a hybrid inflation-targeting framework.

FCI could be a good tool for managing monetary policy in developing countries with a low-inflation environment.

This paper researches a bidirectional volatility transmission effect between stocks and exchange rate markets in the six East European and Eurasian countries.

Research process involves creation of transitory and permanent volatilities via optimal component generalized autoregressive heteroscedasticity (CGARCH) model, while these volatilities are subsequently embedded in Markov switching model.

This study’s results indicate that bidirectional volatility transmission exists between the markets in the selected countries, whereas the effect from exchange rate to stocks is stronger than the other way around in both short-term and long-term. In particular, the authors find that long-term spillover effect from exchange rate to stocks is stronger than the short-term counterpart in all countries, which could suggest that flow-oriented model better explains the nexus between the markets than portfolio-balance approach. On the other hand, short-term volatility transfer from stock to exchange rate is stronger than its long-term equivalent.

This suggests that portfolio-balance theory also has a role in explaining the transmission effect from stock to exchange rate market, but a decisive fact is from which direction spillover effect is observed.

This paper is the first one that analyses the volatility nexus between stocks and exchange rate in short and long term in the four East European and two Eurasian countries.

Free banking theory, as developed in Adam Smith’s 1776 treatise, “The Wealth of Nations” is a useful tool in determining the extent to which the “invisible hand of the market” should prevail in regulatory policy. The purpose of this study is to provide a timely review of the literature, evaluating the theory’s relevance to regulation of financial technology generally and cryptocurrencies (cryptos) specifically.

The methodology is qualitative, applying free banking theory as developed in the literature to technology-defined environments. Recent legislative developments in the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the UK, European Union and the USA, are drawn upon.

Participants in volatile cryptocurrency markets should bear the consequences of inadvisable investments in accordance with free banking theory. The decentralised nature of cryptocurrencies and the exchanges on which these are traded militate against coordinated oversight by central banks, supporting a qualified free banking approach. Differences regarding statutory definitions of cryptos as units of exchange, tokens or investment securities and the propensity of these to transition between categories across the business cycle render attempts at concerted classification at the international level problematic. Prevention of criminality through extension of Suspicious Activity Reporting to exchanges and intermediaries should be the principal objective of policymakers, rather than definitions of evolving products that risk stifling technological innovation.

The study proposes that instead of a traditional regulatory approach to cryptos, which emphasises holders’ safety and compensation, a free banking approach combined with a focus on criminality would be a more effective and pragmatic way forward.