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Loan default risk or credit risk evaluation is important to financial institutions which provide loans to businesses and individuals. Loans carry the risk of being defaulted. To understand the risk levels of credit users (corporations and individuals), credit providers (bankers) normally collect vast amounts of information on borrowers. Statistical predictive analytic techniques can be used to analyse or to determine the risk levels involved in loans. This paper aims to address the question of default prediction of short-term loans for a Tunisian commercial bank.

The authors have used a database of 924 files of credits granted to industrial Tunisian companies by a commercial bank in the years 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006. The naive Bayesian classifier algorithm was used, and the results show that the good classification rate is of the order of 63.85 per cent. The default probability is explained by the variables measuring working capital, leverage, solvency, profitability and cash flow indicators.

The results of the validation test show that the good classification rate is of the order of 58.66 per cent; nevertheless, the error types I and II remain relatively high at 42.42 and 40.47 per cent, respectively. A receiver operating characteristic curve is plotted to evaluate the performance of the model. The result shows that the area under the curve criterion is of the order of 69 per cent.

The paper highlights the fact that the Tunisian central bank obliged all commercial banks to conduct a survey study to collect qualitative data for better credit notation of the borrowers.

El riesgo de incumplimiento de préstamos o la evaluación del riesgo de crédito es importante para las instituciones financieras que otorgan préstamos a empresas e individuos. Existe el riesgo de que el pago de préstamos no se cumpla. Para entender los niveles de riesgo de los usuarios de crédito (corporaciones e individuos), los proveedores de crédito (banqueros) normalmente recogen gran cantidad de información sobre los prestatarios. Las técnicas analíticas predictivas estadísticas pueden utilizarse para analizar o determinar los niveles de riesgo involucrados en los préstamos. En este artículo abordamos la cuestión de la predicción por defecto de los préstamos a corto plazo para un banco comercial tunecino.

Utilizamos una base de datos de 924 archivos de créditos concedidos a empresas industriales tunecinas por un banco comercial en 2003, 2004, 2005 y 2006. El algoritmo bayesiano de clasificadores se llevó a cabo y los resultados muestran que la tasa de clasificación buena es del orden del 63.85%. La probabilidad de incumplimiento se explica por las variables que miden el capital de trabajo, el apalancamiento, la solvencia, la rentabilidad y los indicadores de flujo de efectivo.

Los resultados de la prueba de validación muestran que la buena tasa de clasificación es del orden de 58.66% ; sin embargo, los errores tipo I y II permanecen relativamente altos, siendo de 42.42% y 40.47%, respectivamente. Se traza una curva ROC para evaluar el rendimiento del modelo. El resultado muestra que el criterio de área bajo curva (AUC, por sus siglas en inglés) es del orden del 69%.

El documento destaca el hecho de que el Banco Central tunecino obligó a todas las entidades del sector llevar a cabo un estudio de encuesta para recopilar datos cualitativos para un mejor registro de crédito de los prestatarios.

Curva ROC, Evaluación de riesgos, Riesgo de incumplimiento, Sector bancario, Algoritmo clasificador bayesiano.

Artículo de investigación

As many businesses faced economic disruption due to the Covid-19 pandemic and sought financial relief, existing bank relationships became critical to getting a loan. This study examines factors associated with the development of personal relationships of rural small businesses with community bank representatives.

We applied a mixed-method approach. We employed descriptive statistics, principal factor analysis and logistic regression for data analysis. We distributed an online survey to rural small businesses in five states in the United States. Key informant interviews with community bank representatives supplemented the survey results.

A business owner’s trust in a banker was positively associated with the establishment of a business–bank relationship. However, an analysis of individual trust’s components revealed that the nature of trust is complex, and a failure of one or more components may lead to decreased trustworthiness in a banker. Small businesses that preferred personal communication with a bank were more inclined to relationship banking.

Due to the relatively small sample size and cross-sectional data, our results may not be conclusive but should be viewed as preliminary and as suggestions for future research. Bankers should be aware of the importance of trust for small business owners and of the actions that lead to increased trustworthiness.

The study extends the existing knowledge on the business–bank relationship by focusing mainly on social (instead of economic) factors associated with the establishment of the business–bank relationship in times of crisis and high uncertainty.

This paper aims to construct a process model of business founding in the biotech industry.

An inductive method is used, and five case studies analyzed. Data are coded by applying Gioia’s method.

Aspirant entrepreneurs conduct resource analysis and industry analysis to formulate research and development targets. They perform transactions and networks because they require resources, and they then deploy and coordinate these resources. Such coordination generates activities with social and financial impacts.

The results are specific to the biotech industry. A future study could examine business founding processes in other industries (e.g. entertainment, fashion, public utilities and sport). Additionally, the paper argues that during the founding process entrepreneurs show little concern for knowledge-sharing risk, as they want to collaborate to implement their ideas. Quantitative papers could test the consequences of such behavior.

The process model provides insights into aspirant founders on how to start a business in the biotech industry.

The paper shows: the differences between the founding process in the biotech industry versus other industries; and the shape of the Bower–Burgelman model in the context of biotech business founding. The paper delineates how private companies discover competencies in the public sector; a model of technology transfer from public to private sector; entrepreneurs’ absence of risk perceptions regarding knowledge-sharing during founding; and how conferences can serve as vehicles for benchmarking in networking.

Since 2008’s financial crisis, attention toward supply chain finance (SCF) has increased. However, most research investigates SCF considering single supply chain (SC) stages or buyer–supplier dyads and focuses on a single SCF solution. It is important to see how different solutions are adopted at different SC stages, by actors with different financing needs. This study aims to analyze SCF at different SC stages, to understand why different solutions are implemented at different SC stages and the contingency factors (regulation, SC stage, product category and size) influencing their adoption.

The paper is based on multiple exploratory case studies in the Italian agri-food industry, considering firms distributed at different SC stages and adopting multiple SCF solutions. The paper exploits a contingent approach (Sousa and Voss, 2008) to analyze how contingent factors influence SCF adoption at different SC stages.

Findings explain how and why different SC stages (producer, cooperative, processor and retailer) implement different SCF solutions (reverse factoring, dynamic discounting, inventory finance and Minibond), describing contingency variables’ impact on their adoption.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the research is original in its description of SCF at different SC stages, considering different SC actors’ drivers and barriers, and questioning the importance of a coordinated approach in SCF adoption along an entire SC. Moreover, the paper adopts a contingent approach, contributing to SCF research, seldomly based on theoretical lenses.

According to the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners, financial statement fraud represents the smallest amount of fraud cases but results in the greatest monetary loss. The researcher previously investigated the characteristics of financial statement fraud and determined the presence of 16 fraud indicators. The purpose of this study is to establish whether investors and other stakeholders can detect and identify financial statement fraud using these characteristics in an analysis of a company’s annual report.

This study analyses a financial statement fraud case, using the same techniques that were previously applied, including horizontal, vertical and ratio analysis. These are preferred because stakeholders have relatively easy access to them.

The findings show several fraud characteristics, with a few additional ones not previously found prevalent. Financial statement fraud thus tends to differ between cases. It is also easier to detect and identify fraud indicators ex post facto.

This study is a practical case showing that financial statement fraud can be detected and identified in the financial statements of companies that commit fraud.

This paper aims to analyse the different requirements of Practice Direction 15.10 (which governs the process of family mediation in Hong Kong) and Practice Direction 31 (which governs the process of general mediation in Hong Kong), and to highlight the need to incorporate the spirit of family mediation into legislation to better protect children’s interest in a family dispute.

The paper reviews and compares the content on Practice Direction 15.10 and Practice Direction 31 issued by Chief Justice of the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal, and adopts interpretative and analytical approaches to evaluate their impact.

In an effort to promote parental responsibility-based negotiation in divorce proceeding, a missed opportunity in enacting the Children Proceedings (Parental Responsibility) Bill in 2015 might be a blessing in disguise as it offers another chance for policy makers to consider how to direct parties to negotiate and communicate, to seek and benefit from professional guidance on a continuous basis, and to seek alternative channels to resolve disputes other than the court room. The policy and the law advocating a switch from a “rights-based” to “responsibility-based” approach in handling children’s matters should be revisited by incorporating the spirit of family mediation into legislation.

Analyses are conducted through direct contextual review and documentary research. This paper conducts literal analysis of court guidance and unveils policy implications for the general public. It would be of interest to judicial officers, scholars and government officials concerning children’s rights and parental responsibility in divorce proceedings.

This paper aims to investigate the internal factors of resources and capabilities of five born globals (BGs) from Estonia. It explores quantitatively the internal factors between a medium BG and four small BGs.

The study used a survey questionnaire in collecting information from the CEOs of BGs. The questionnaire consisted of 105 questions relevant to export sales related to differences in internal factors.

The firms’ size and industrial sector play a role in export sales due to differences in internal factors. Small BGs expect financially based rewards, non-financial rewards, the job satisfaction of sales representatives with the export manager, and with work in general, and the representatives’ job satisfaction is higher in the small BGs than in the medium BG. The sales representatives’ job performance, their work performance, sales presentations, technical knowledge, adaptiveness, teamwork, planning, support, the organisational capabilities for business identification, relationship-building and innovation are all higher in medium BGs than in small BGs. Eleven sub-constructs of the model were shown to be important for small BGs.

The current study is focused on BGs from Estonia, i.e. small BGs and medium BGs. The study contributes to the internal factors of resources and capabilities of BGs as well as to the literature review on BGs. It also provides a logical conceptual model, indicating that the export manager’s job satisfaction is the central construct influenced by antecedent factors and is related directly to the export sales performance of the BG.

Corporate firms often follow their peer firms to articulate multiple financial decisions. Among the others, trade credit policy is a vital financial decision that can impart its dynamic role in achieving financial efficiency. Therefore, the current analysis aims to assess the role of herding behavior in determining the trade credit policies of corporate firms and its relevant effect on corporate financial performance.

For this purpose, the financial data of 13089 nonfinancial sector firms from 50 countries are employed and the dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) model to estimate the regression is applied.

The empirical findings first reveal that corporate firms actively mimic their peer firms regarding trade credit policies. However, this mimicking behavior hampers the financial performance due to noncompatibility with peers’ trade credit policies. Peer firms often develop such trade credit policies that are not applicable to corporate firms.

Mainly, the findings of the study suggest two implications. First, it highlights the peer effect in terms of trade credit patterns. Second, it elaborates an adverse effect regarding financial performance due to herding of peers’ trade credit policies.

This study adds new thoughts regarding herding behavior in terms of trade credit policy and its possible consequences for corporate financial performance. No study explores such a relationship.

The scarcity of women in advertising creative departments has been reported globally, particularly in creative managerial roles. This study goes a step beyond this evidence since this paper aims to test whether having at least one token woman in creative managerial positions (token+) may be associated with a larger presence of females in low-level creative jobs compared to creative departments led only by male creative managers.

A content analysis of the credit forms of 839 Spanish campaigns released in 2019 was conducted to determine the gender composition of 116 creative departments with more than three professionals.

Generalized Poisson Regressions indicated that when at least a token woman is present in a creative management role within agency networks, the number of females in low-level positions doubles with respect to creative departments led only by male managers. This relation was not found for independent agencies, though. The results are discussed under the lens of critical mass theory, attraction paradigm and homophily theory.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the first time in the literature that the relation among the number of token+ advertising female creative managers and the amount of females in lower-level creative positions is tested. This research is also original because the sample is from a non-Anglo-Saxon country. Moreover, the use of the Generalized Poisson Regressions technique is another novelty of this paper.

This paper aims to investigate the link between agency costs mitigation via three levels of rights protection (minority rights protection, enforcing contracts, resolving insolvency issues) provides the propitious climate for financing investment opportunities around the world.

We use Bartlett’s three-group method to stratify countries based on how well they protect investors as measured by the scores provided in the Doing Business dataset developed by the world bank for 189 countries. We then test a variety of independent hypotheses that the alleviation of agency costs via three levels of protection (minority investors’ rights, contract enforcement, resolving insolvency issues) is associated with better access to credit via the banking system, better valuation of listed firms via the stock market and higher investment and growth.

Our findings support Agency Theory which explains why the absence of legal protection of external investors leads to stock markets and financial institutions failing to fulfill their role of financing the economy.

The policy implication from this study indicates that countries ought to (1) develop legislation that protects investors’ rights, (2) improve the quality of their judicial system in terms of enforcing the legislation and (3) build the framework for resolving disputes during insolvency as these are important ingredients for a developed financial system.

We use the World bank dataset and a new methodology to quantify the significance of the relationship between minority rights protection, ineffective enforcement, lack of bankruptcy laws and access to firm financing via the banking sector and the stock market. It provides new evidence that the quality of the judicial system in a country matter for firms’ ability to raise financing and enhance value creation.

本文旨在探討一個假設，該假設為透過三級別權利保障（保障少數群體的權利、執行合同、解決破產問題）的代理成本緩減會為世界各地的金融性投資機會提供良好的氣侯。

我們以巴特利特（Bartlett）的三組法把國家分組，分組方法是基於該國家保障投資者的程度，而保障程度是以世界銀行為189個國家而制定的營商資料集內提供的評分來衡量的。我們把國家分組後，便就各樣的獨立假設進行測試。這些假設是：透過三級別保障（保障少數股權投資者的權利、合同的執行、解決破產問題）的代理成本緩減是連繫於透過銀行系統而產生的更佳信貸途徑，透過股市的更佳上市公司估值及更高的投資和增長。

研究結果証實了代理理論，該理論說明為何當外來投資者沒有得到法律保障時，結果會導致股票市場和金融機構不能履行其為經濟提供資金的角色。

本研究具有政策方面的意義，因研究顯示了國家應該：（1）設立保障投資者權利的法律；（2）在執行法律方面，改善其司法系統的素質；（3）建立解決破產時爭議的體系。這些是應該做的，因它們是一個已發展的金融體制的重要元素。

本文強調了一個保障投資者權利的法律環境所需的三個特定要素：對少數股權投資者權利的保障、有效的執行、有效的破產法律及透過銀行部門和股票市場而取得公司融資。這提供新的證據, 證實這三級別權利保障對公司籌集資金及提高價值創造的能力而言至為重要。