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This study aims to validate the link between production manipulation and a firm’s performance variability (fundamentals and stock returns). It explores whether executives' risk-taking incentives encourage production deviations around the normal level during uncertainty.

Utilizing panel data of manufacturing firms from Compustat over three decades, the study investigates production management practices during economic uncertainty. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) is employed as a key metric. The empirical strategy involves documenting the effect of economic uncertainty on overproduction and underproduction, examining the role of executive compensation and assessing the impact on risk.

The research finds that risk-taking incentives increase over/underproduction, particularly amplifying the extent of underproduction during uncertainty. Production deviation rises, indicating that firms take greater risk by engaging in abnormal business operations. The study’s results are robust against various econometric methods, emphasizing the influence of risk-taking incentives on corporate production decisions.

While providing valuable insights, the study acknowledges inherent limitations, including factors influencing production decisions beyond risk-taking incentives. Further research could explore additional determinants for a comprehensive understanding.

The findings highlight the potential dark side of executive compensation that motivates suboptimal risk-taking decisions, impacting risk, cost of capital and firm performance. Policymakers and compensation committees can use these insights to design efficient systems that mitigate moral hazard problems associated with productivity changes.

The study emphasizes the broader social implications of production manipulation under uncertainty. It prompts discussions on the ethical considerations of managerial opportunism, its potential consequences for stakeholders and market dynamics.

This study contributes to the literature by examining the role of economic uncertainty on production manipulation and the influence of risk-taking incentives. It extends the earnings management literature by considering real activity manipulation and emphasizing the importance of decomposing production deviation into positive and negative values.

This paper investigates a problem in a reverse logistics (RLs) network to decide whether to dispose of unsold goods in primary stores or re-commercialize them in outlet centers. By deducting the costs associated with each policy from its revenue, this study aims to maximize the profit from managing unsold goods.

A new mixed-integer linear programming model has been developed to address the problem, which considers the selling prices of products in primary and secondary stores and the costs of transportation, cross-docking and returning unwanted items. As a result of uncertain nature of the cost and time parameters, gray numbers are used to deal with it. In addition, an innovative uncertain solution approach for gray programming problems is presented that considers objective function satisfaction level as an indicator of optimism.

According to the results, higher costs, including transportation, cross-docking and return costs, make sending goods to outlet centers unprofitable and more goods are disposed of in primary stores. Prices in primary and secondary stores heavily influence the number of discarded goods. Higher prices in primary stores result in more disposed of goods, while higher prices in secondary stores result in fewer. As a result of the proposed method, the objective function satisfaction level can be viewed as a measure of optimism.

An integral contribution of this study is developing a new mixed-integer linear programming model for selecting the appropriate goods for re-commercialization and choosing the best outlet center based on the products' price and total profit. Another novelty of the proposed model is considering the matching percentage of boxes with secondary stores’ desired product lists and the probability of returning goods due to non-compliance with delivery dates. Moreover, a new uncertain solution approach is developed to solve mathematical programming problems with gray parameters.

This paper aims to investigate empirically the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on small-to-medium enterprises’ (SMEs) investment efficiency and whether product market competition influences this association.

The study was conducted on French SMEs listed on the “CAC Mid & Small” Index over 2008–2021. This paper proposes a quantitative approach to test the relationship between the EPU and SME investment efficiency.

These findings show that EPU significantly alleviates SMEs’ investment inefficiency, reflected in the reduction of overinvestment and underinvestment. As EPU increases, firms with more exposure to such uncertainty invest more efficiently, and their overinvestment tendency becomes lower, while reducing the risk of underinvestment. These results are still significant after a series of robustness checks. Further analysis shows that EPU mitigates investment inefficiency to a greater extent for firms operating in highly competitive industries, and better information environments.

This study was limited to the French EPU index and could be extended to a European or even international scale. Moreover, using alternative uncertainty indexes across various European countries can be more advantageous in further studies. Although results suggest that EPU affects investment efficiency, future studies could further explore the mechanisms through which EPU affects SMEs’ investment efficiency and, in particular, across different industries. Understanding these variations due to the specific industry-EPU sensitivity can provide valuable insights. Finally, it would be interesting to examine the risk management strategies adopted by SMEs in the face of EPU, combined with other growing risks, such as climate risk.

In the face of high EPU, SME managers must improve risk management, adopt appropriate investment strategies, consider using predictive analytics or economic forecasting tools and embrace technology and innovation that enhance agility and responsiveness to policy uncertainty. Besides, political decision-makers should adapt their regulatory policies (tax, labor, housing, etc.) to preserve the efficiency of SME investment.

Although the debates on how policy uncertainty affects the investment and financing of large businesses have received a great concern of academia, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that focuses on the effect of EPU on investment distortions for SMEs.

This study aims to theoretically hypothesize and empirically examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on firms' innovation performance as well as the contingency conditions of this relationship.

This study collects and combines secondary longitudinal data from multiple sources to test for a direct impact of EPU on firms' innovation performance. It further examines the moderating effects of firms' operational and marketing capabilities. A series of robustness checks are performed to ensure the consistency of the findings.

In contrast to the common belief that EPU reduces the innovativeness of firms, the authors find an inverted-U relationship between EPU and innovation performance, indicating that a moderate level of EPU actually promotes innovation. Further analysis suggests that firms' operational and marketing capabilities make the inverted-U relationship steeper, further enhancing firms' innovation performance at a moderate level of EPU.

This study adds to the emerging literature that investigates the operational implications of EPU, which enhances our understanding of the potential bright side of EPU and broadens the scope of operational risk management.

To investigate the role of domestic and foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in driving the corporate bond yields in emerging markets.

The study utilizes monthly data from January 2008 to June 2023 from the selected emerging economies. The data analysis is conducted using univariate, bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques. The study includes bond market liquidity and global volatility (VIX) as control variables.

Domestic EPU has a significant role in driving corporate bond yields in these markets. The study finds weak evidence to support the role of the USA EPU in influencing corporate bond yields in emerging economies. Domestic EPU holds more weight and influence than the EPU originating from the United States of America.

The findings provide useful insights to policymakers about the potential impact of policy uncertainty on corporate bond yields and enable them to make informed decisions regarding economic policies that maintains financial stability. Understanding the relationship between EPU and corporate bond yields enables investors to optimize their investment decisions in emerging market economies, opens the scope for further research on the interaction between EPU and volatility and other attributes of fixed income markets.

Focuses specifically on the emerging market economies in Asia, providing an in-depth analysis of the dynamics and challenges faced by these countries, Explores the influence of both domestic and the USA EPU on corporate bond yields in emerging markets, offering valuable insights into the transmission channels and impact of EPU from various sources.

This study aims to investigate the effect of political turmoil on the firm financial performance, particularly in presence of politically affiliated board of directors.

The study applied panel regression analyses on a data set of Pakistan’s listed companies ranged over 14 years, spanning from 2007 to 2021. Political turmoil was first gauged through three determinants, i.e. political protest, government election and constitutional reform, and thereafter, economic uncertainty index was used as a proxy for political turmoil. For the purpose of political connection, the study used political affiliation of the board of directors.

The study finds that political turmoil has deleterious effect on the return on assets and Tobin’s Q. The study further unveils that politically affiliated firms are relatively insulated from the volatility posed by the political uncertainty and exhibit significantly better financial outcomes.

Findings of the study suggest that appropriate composition of the board is imperative in offsetting the risk posed by the political turmoil. Hence, the results are useful for investors, policymakers and regulators to ensure financial soundness of firms in the wake of political turmoil.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the moderating impact of political connection on the performance of companies in presence of political turmoil.

Developing a reliable cost estimate at the early stage of construction projects is challenging due to inadequate project information. Most of the information during this stage is qualitative, posing additional challenges to achieving accurate cost estimates. Additionally, there is a lack of tools that use qualitative project information and forecast the budgets required for project completion. This research, therefore, aims to develop a model for setting project budgets (excluding land) during the pre-conceptual stage of residential buildings, where project information is mainly qualitative.

Due to the qualitative nature of project information at the pre-conception stage, a natural language processing model, DistilBERT (Distilled Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers), was trained to predict the cost range of residential buildings at the pre-conception stage. The training and evaluation data included 63,899 building permit activity records (2021–2022) from the Victorian State Building Authority, Australia. The input data comprised the project description of each record, which included project location and basic material types (floor, frame, roofing, and external wall).

This research designed a novel tool for predicting the project budget based on preliminary project information. The model achieved 79% accuracy in classifying residential buildings into three cost_classes ($100,000-$300,000, $300,000-$500,000, $500,000-$1,200,000) and F1-scores of 0.85, 0.73, and 0.74, respectively. Additionally, the results show that the model learnt the contextual relationship between qualitative data like project location and cost.

The current model was developed using data from Victoria state in Australia; hence, it would not return relevant outcomes for other contexts. However, future studies can adopt the methods to develop similar models for their context.

This research is the first to leverage a deep learning model, DistilBERT, for cost estimation at the pre-conception stage using basic project information like location and material types. Therefore, the model would contribute to overcoming data limitations for cost estimation at the pre-conception stage. Residential building stakeholders, like clients, designers, and estimators, can use the model to forecast the project budget at the pre-conception stage to facilitate decision-making.

This study investigates firms' innovation behaviour under environmental change. Therefore, it examines the effect of trade disputes on corporate technological innovation and how product market competition moderates this relationship.

This research tests the hypotheses using the fixed effects model based on panel data of publicly listed enterprises in China from 2007–2020.

The empirical results validate the positive association between trade disputes and corporate research and development (R&D) intensity as well as the U-shaped relationship between trade disputes and radical innovation. Additionally, the moderating effect of product market competition is verified: a concentrated market with less competition flattens the U-shaped curve of radical innovation induced by trade disputes; as the market becomes more concentrated and less competitive, the U-shaped relationship eventually turns into an inverted U.

First, this study contributes to the corporate innovation and trade dispute literature by expanding the environmental antecedents of technological innovation and the firm-level consequences of trade disputes. Second, this study enriches the theoretical framework of the environment–innovation link through an integrated perspective of contingency theory and dynamic capabilities view. Third, instead of the traditional linear mindset which had led to contradictory results, this study explores a curvilinear effect in the environment–innovation relationship.

As supply chain excellence matters, designing an appropriate health-care supply chain is a great consideration to the health-care providers worldwide. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to benchmark several potential health-care supply chains to design an efficient and effective one in the presence of mixed data.

To achieve this objective, this research illustrates a hybrid algorithm based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) and goal programming (GP) for designing real-world health-care supply chains with mixed data. A DEA model along with a data aggregation is suggested to evaluate the performance of several potential configurations of the health-care supply chains. As part of the proposed approach, a GP model is conducted for dimensioning the supply chains under assessment by finding the level of the original variables (inputs and outputs) that characterize these supply chains.

This paper presents an algorithm for modeling health-care supply chains exclusively designed to handle crisp and interval data simultaneously.

The outcome of this study will assist the health-care decision-makers in comparing their supply chains against peers and dimensioning their resources to achieve a given level of productions.

A real application to design a real-life pharmaceutical supply chain for the public ministry of health in Morocco is given to support the usefulness of the proposed algorithm.

The novelty of this paper comes from the development of a hybrid approach based on DEA and GP to design an appropriate real-life health-care supply chain in the presence of mixed data. This approach definitely contributes to assist health-care decision-makers design an efficient and effective supply chain in today’s competitive word.

This study aims to explore the perceptions of investors regarding the risks associated with funding renewable energy projects in India, as well as the various factors that influence these perceptions. The investigation is limited to debt providers and seeks to pinpoint the primary risks that bankers perceive and the drivers that shape these perceptions.

This study draws on interviews and surveys of Indian bank executives, investigating how finance providers perceive risks in the Indian context and the factors driving such perceptions. Qualitative interviews have been used for operationalizing “risk perception” within the renewable energy domain, followed by a quantitative survey and exploratory factor analysis.

The authors find that experience and capacity are the most important factors that account for 30% of the overall variance. The second factor, which accounts for 15% of the variance, includes the perceived risks in funding renewable energy projects as compared to infrastructure projects. Among individual risks, the authors find that bankers perceive technological risk to be the lowest (5%) and contractual and regulatory risks as the highest (66%) in renewable energy projects.

The study contextualizes risk perception toward renewable energy investments in the Indian context by drawing from the risk perception literature and qualitative interviews with senior bankers. It presents empirical evidence on the decision-making behavior of bankers, who are important stakeholders of the renewable energy ecosystem. The main limitation of the study is the relatively small sample, and generalizing the results to the broader population might require a larger sample. This will facilitate the use of confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling, which can facilitate a more comprehensive understanding of risk perceptions in renewables financing.

Insights gained can be used to provide policy recommendations for improving the financing ecosystem of renewable energy projects. The research significantly contributes to the extant literature within the renewable energy financing domain for emerging economies.