Search results

The equation of unified knowledge says that S = f (A,P) which means that the practical solution to a given problem is a function of the existing, empirical, actual realities and the future, potential, best possible conditions of general stable equilibrium which both pure and practical reason, exhaustive in the Kantian sense, show as being within the realm of potential realities beyond any doubt. The first classical revolution in economic thinking, included in factor “P” of the equation, conceived the economic and financial problems in terms of a model of ideal conditions of stable equilibrium but neglected the full consideration of the existing, actual conditions. That is the main reason why, in the end, it failed. The second modern revolution, included in factor “A” of the equation, conceived the economic and financial problems in terms of the existing, actual conditions, usually in disequilibrium or unstable equilibrium (in case of stagnation) and neglected the sense of right direction expressed in factor “P” or the realization of general, stable equilibrium. That is the main reason why the modern revolution failed in the past and is failing in front of our eyes in the present. The equation of unified knowledge, perceived as a sui generis synthesis between classical and modern thinking has been applied rigorously and systematically in writing the enclosed American‐British economic, monetary, financial and social stabilization plans. In the final analysis, a new economic philosophy, based on a synthesis between classical and modern thinking, called here the new economics of unified knowledge, is applied to solve the malaise of the twentieth century which resulted from a confusion between thinking in terms of stable equilibrium on the one hand and disequilibrium or unstable equilibrium on the other.

The economic science is again in a crisis and a new solution prolegomena to any future study in economics, finance and other social sciences has just been published by the International Institute of Social Economics in care of the MCB University Press in England. The roots of the major financial and economic problems of our time lie in an open conflict between theory and practice. In the 1930s and before the conflict was between classical theory and given realities. In the 1990s the conflict appears between the now prevailing modern, Keynesian theory and the actual realities. In addition during the twentieth century a great argument developed between the two schools of thought, argument which is not yet settled. In one sentence, the prolegomena tried and was successful to solve the conflict between theory and practice and the big doctrinal dispute of the twentieth century. It was a struggle of research and observation over half a century between 1947 and 1997.

The aim of this study is to examine the “volatility smile” or/and “skew”, term structure and implied volatility surfaces based on those European options written in the standard and poor (S&P) Nifty equity index. The stochastic nature of implied volatility across strike price, time-to-expiration and moneyness violates the core assumption of the Black–Scholes option pricing model.

The potential determinants of implied volatility are the degree of moneyness, time-to-expiration and the liquidity of the strikes. The empirical work has been expressed by means of a simple ordinary least squares (OLS) framework and presents the estimation results according to moneyness, time-to-expiration and liquidity of options.

The options data give evidence of the existence of a classical U-shaped volatility smile for the Indian options market. Indeed, there is some evidence that the “volatility smirk” which pertains to 30-day options and also implied volatility remain higher for the shorter maturity options and decrease as the time-to-expiration increases. The results lead us to believe that in-the-money calls and out-of-the-money puts are of higher volatility than at-the-money options. Conclusion was drawn due to the persistence of the smile in the options market.

The practical implication of studying stylized patterns of implied volatility is that it educates the volatility traders about how in-the-money and out-of-the-money options are priced in the options market, and provides an estimate of volatility for the pricing of future options.

This study is an extension of previous work. The undertaking has been to examine the case of a more liquid and transparent options market, which is missing from the earlier work. The current study is more relevant because, since 2008, significant changes have been observed in the futures and options market in India.

Various sociological theories about the nature of money are reviewed here and a claim that money could be fruitfully examined from the standpoint of Peircian semiotics and Meadian interactionism is presented. The work of Marx and Simmel are interpreted in semiotic terms leading to the claim that the selves of human agents are constituted within a political and social economy resulting in the emergence of semiotic subjectivation and objectivation of money as features of the self.

This chapter discusses the “seigniorage argument” in favor of public money issuance, according to which public finances could be improved if the state more fully exercised the privilege of money creation, which is, today, largely shared with private banks. This point was made in the 1930s by several proponents of the “100% money” reform scheme, such as Henry Simons of the University of Chicago, Lauchlin Currie of Harvard and Irving Fisher of Yale, who called for a full-reserve requirement in lawful money behind checking deposits. One of their claims was that, by returning all seigniorage profit to the state, such reform would allow a significant reduction of the national debt. In academic debates, however, following a criticism first made by Albert G. Hart of the University of Chicago in 1935, this argument has generally been discarded as wholly illusory. Hart argued that, because the state, under a 100% system, would be likely to pay the banks a subsidy for managing checking accounts, no substantial debt reduction could possibly be expected to follow. The 100% money proponents never answered Hart’s criticism, whose conclusion has often been considered as definitive in the literature. However, a detailed study of the subject reveals that Hart’s analysis itself appears to be questionable on at least two grounds: the first pertains to the sources of the seigniorage benefit, the other to its distribution. This chapter concludes that the “seigniorage argument” of the 100% money authors may not have been entirely unfounded.

The focus of this paper is the economic theory of the plans for the European Monetary Union. Part 1 demonstrates that economists, bankers and policy makers know very little about monetary policy. Part 2 explains the errors of the common practice of defining money by its functions. Because any monetary policy must rest on a definition of money it seems reasonable to conclude that a flawed definition might lead to problems with monetary policy. Part 3 applies this insight to the plans for a common currency in Europe. Because of uncertainties about the timing and details of the implementation, some important considerations are necessarily speculative. They are relegated to appendices. Appendix 1 comments on the timing and authorship and responsibility for the official reports with their unspecified authors. Appendix 2 supplies some grounds for doubting the ultimate durability of the European Monetary Union focusing on reasons that are historical, economic and pragmatic. Because the entire movement is driven by politics, not economics, Appendix 3 considers some of the relevant political issues. The conclusions summarize and speculate on possible reasons for successful outcomes.

The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the pattern of the implied volatility function for currency options traded on the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE), identify its potential determinants and to investigate any seasonality in the pattern.

The paper examines four different specifications for the implied volatility smile of exchange-traded dollar-rupee options. These specifications are tested by running Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions on a daily basis for all options over the entire sample period. Seven potential determinants for the shape of the volatility function are identified. Contemporaneous and lead-lag relationships between these determinants and the shape of the volatility function are examined using OLS and multivariate VAR. Impulse response functions are employed to test the strength and persistence of the lead-lag relations. Seasonality of the smile pattern is tested using OLS.

The study shows that the implied volatility function for dollar-rupee options is asymmetric and varies with the time to maturity of the option. Historical volatility, momentum and jumps in the exchange rate, time to maturity, traded volume of options and volatility in the stock market appear to Granger-cause the shape of the volatility smile. Feedback causality is observed from the shape of the smile to the volatility, momentum and jumps in the exchange rate and trading volume of currency options. A weak day-of-the-week effect is observed in the pattern of the volatility smile.

The study sheds light on the potential determinants of the smile and highlights the predictive power of the smile which findings can be useful to market practitioners for pricing and hedging of dollar-rupee options. The study has strong practical implications during a period of increased volatility in the dollar-rupee pair.

Most of the existing literature regarding implied volatility smiles has focused either on the volatility smile of US equity index options or that of major liquid currencies. There is a need for such studies in the context of options on emerging market currencies such as the Indian rupee which are characterized by thin trading and frequent central bank intervention and signaling. To the best of the author’s knowledge this study is the first to focus on the volatility smile of exchange-traded options on the US dollar–Indian rupee.

A change in monetary operating procedures provides a natural experiment which is used to evaluate, first, whether Indian monetary policy transmission is better when durable liquidity is in surplus or when it is in deficit; second whether it is better with interest rates as the policy instrument or quantity of money or a mixture of the two.

This study first shows that the period of analysis can be divided into two separate regimes one of liquidity surplus (2002–2010) and the other of deficit (2011–2019).This study then estimates separate structural vector auto-regressions (SVARs) for the financial and real sector, with relevant exogenous foreign, policy and other variables for each of the periods as well as SVARs for the whole period with alternative operating instruments.

Monetary transmission from the repo rate was better during the period the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) was in surplus with the central bank in absorption mode denoting excess durable liquidity. Pass through was faster and the repo rate had a greater influence on other variables. The impact of the rate on output gap exceeds that on inflation. The weighted average call money rate was found to outperform others as the operating target. Monetary policy has evolved so that policy rates are more effective in transmission compared to money supply, but best results are when durable liquidity is also in surplus.

The results contribute to ongoing debates on the Indian monetary policy framework and give useful inputs for policy in emerging markets where research is scarce. They suggest keeping the LAF in deficit mode over 2011–19 was not optimal.

This paper aims to compete and detect suspicious transactions that can lead to detecting money laundering cases.

This paper presents a plan-based framework for anti-money laundering systems (PBAMLS). Such a framework is novel and consists of two phases, in addition to several supporting modules. The first phase, the monitoring phase, utilizes an automata approach as a formalism to detect probable money laundering. The detection process is based on a money laundering deterministic finite automaton that has been obtained from the corresponding regular expressions which specify different money laundering processes. The second phase is STRIPS-based planning phase that aims at strengthening the belief in the probable problems discovered in the first (monitoring) phase. In addition, PBAMLS contains several supporting modules for data collection and mediation, link analysis and risk scoring. To assess the applicability of PBAMLS, it has been tested using different cases studies.

This framework provides a clear shift of anti-money laundering systems (AML) from depending heuristic and human expertise to making use of a rigorous formalism to accomplish concrete decisions. It minimizes the possibilities of false positive alarms and increases the certainty in decision-making.

This framework enhances the detection of money laundering cases. It also minimizes the number of false-positive alarms that waste the investigators’ efforts and time; it decreases the efforts presented by the investigators.

This work proposes PBAMLS as a novel plan-based framework for AML systems.

This paper examines the monetary thought of Arthur Kitson (1861‐1937) as expressed in his published works and in recently discovered answers he submitted in 1922 to a questionnaire from Thomas Edison, the US inventor.

Both original source material from the Edison Archive and published sources are used to examine the subject.

It is found that Kitson's monetary thought is more orthodox than has previously been claimed by, among others, John Maynard Keynes, and more recently in the economics literature. It is also found that Kitson was the only person to support, without qualification, Edison's plan to reform the US monetary system.

This paper casts a new light on Kitson's monetary thought, showing the influence of Irving Fisher on Kitson. The paper also presents Edison's questionnaire and Kitson's contributory thoughts on a fiat monetary standard that the questionnaire stimulated.