Search results
1 – 10 of 16Achraf Ghorbel, Yasmine Snene and Wajdi Frikha
The objective of this paper is to investigate the pandemic’s function as a driver of investor herding in international stock markets, given that the current coronavirus disease…
Abstract
Purpose
The objective of this paper is to investigate the pandemic’s function as a driver of investor herding in international stock markets, given that the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis has caused a large rise in uncertainty.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper investigates the presence of herding behavior among the developed and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) stock market indices during the COVID-19 crisis, by using a modified Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD) measure which is considered a proxy for herding and the wavelet coherence (WC) analysis between CSAD that captures the different inter-linkages between stock markets.
Findings
Using the CSAD model, the authors' findings indicate that the herding behavior of investors is present in stock markets during the four waves of COVID-19 crisis. The results also demonstrate that the transaction volume improve the herding behavior in the stock markets. As for the news concerning the number of cases caused by the pandemic, the results show that the pandemic does not stimulate herding; however, the number of deaths caused by this pandemic turns out to be a great stimulator of herding. By using the WC analysis, the authors' findings indicate the presence of herding behavior between the Chinese and stock markets (developed and emerging), especially during the first wave of the crisis and the presence of herding behavior between the Indian and stock markets (developed and emerging) in the medium and long run, especially during the third wave of the COVID-19 crisis.
Originality/value
The authors' study is among the first that examines the influence of the recent COVID-19 pandemic as a stimulator of herding behavior between stock markets. The study also uses the WC analysis next to the CSAD model to obtain robust results. The authors' results are consistent with the mental bias of behavioral finance where herding behavior is considered effective in volatility predictions and decision-making for international investors, specifically during the COVID-19 crisis.
Details
Keywords
Noura Metawa, Saad Metawa, Maha Metawea and Ahmed El-Gayar
This paper deeply investigates the herd behavior of the Egyptian mutual funds under changing and different conditions of the market pre- and post-events and compares the impact of…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper deeply investigates the herd behavior of the Egyptian mutual funds under changing and different conditions of the market pre- and post-events and compares the impact of asymmetric risk conditions on the herding behavior of the Egyptian mutual funds in both up and down markets.
Design/methodology/approach
We test for the existence of herding for the whole period from 2003 to 2022, as well as for the pre-and post-different Egyptian uprising periods. We employ two well-known models, namely the cross-sectional standard deviation (CSSD) and cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) models. Additionally, we use the quantile regression approach.
Findings
We find that the behavior of mutual funds does not change following the different political and social events. For the whole period, we find evidence of herding behavior using only the model of CSAD in down-market conditions. We generalize our finding to be evidence of the existence herding behavior in different quantiles, under only the down market in specific points’ pre, post or both given events throughout the whole series. Conversely, during the upper market, we show a full absence of herding behavior considering all different quantiles. When the market is down, managers are afraid of the condition of uncertainty, neglecting their own private information, avoid acting independently and consequently, following other mutual funds. When the market is up, managers become rational and act fully independent.
Research limitations/implications
Future research should delve deeper into the drivers of herding behavior, assess its longer-term effects, develop risk management strategies and consider regulatory measures to mitigate the potential negative impact on mutual fund performance and investor outcomes.
Practical implications
The study reveals that the behavior of mutual funds remains consistent despite various political and social events, suggesting a degree of resilience in their investment strategies. The research uncovers evidence of herding behavior in both high and low quantiles, but exclusively in down markets. In such conditions of market decline, fund managers appear to forsake their private information, exhibiting a tendency to follow the crowd rather than acting independently.
Social implications
The study reveals that the behavior of mutual funds remains consistent despite various political and social events, suggesting a degree of resilience in their investment strategies. The research uncovers evidence of herding behavior in both high and low quantiles, but exclusively in down markets. In such conditions of market decline, fund managers appear to forsake their private information, exhibiting a tendency to follow the crowd rather than acting independently. Future research should delve deeper into the drivers of herding behavior, assess its longer-term effects, develop risk management strategies and consider regulatory measures to mitigate the potential negative impact on mutual fund performance and investor outcomes.
Originality/value
The paper investigates the herd behavior of the Egyptian mutual funds under asymmetric risk conditions, the study follows the spectrum of the herding behavior analysis and Egyptian mutual funds, extending the research with imperial analysis of market conditions pre- and post-events including currency floating, COVID-19 and political elections. The study gives substantial recommendations for policymakers and investors in emerging markets mutual funds.
Details
Keywords
Eminda Ishan De Silva, Gayithri Niluka Kuruppu and Sandun Dassanayake
The non-fungible token (NFT) market had undergone dramatic growth and a sudden decline during 2021–2022. The market experienced a surge in prices in late 2021 and early 2022, with…
Abstract
Purpose
The non-fungible token (NFT) market had undergone dramatic growth and a sudden decline during 2021–2022. The market experienced a surge in prices in late 2021 and early 2022, with NFTs being sold at inflated prices. Despite this, by April 2022, the market underwent a correction, and the prices of NFTs returned to more reasonable levels. This can be a result of imitating the actions or judgments of a larger group, which is not systematically proven yet. Therefore, this study systematically investigates the applicability of herding behavior in the NFT market.
Design/methodology/approach
This research employs cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) of returns and ordinary least squares (OLS) to test herding behavior with moving time windows of 10, 20 and 30 days based on the sales data collected from public interface of OpenSea between July 1, 2021 and June 30, 2022. Additionally, NFT-related keyword usage analysis is done for the detected herding periods.
Findings
As per the results of the data analyzed, herding behavior was evidenced using 10-, 20- and 30-day time windows from July 1, 2021 to June 30, 2022because of media movement. The findings revealed that this behavior was present and aligned with the overall behavior of the market.
Originality/value
This study introduces CSAD to examine herding behavior patterns within the NFT market. Complementing this method, keyword count-based analysis is employed to identify the underlying causes of herding behavior. Through this comprehensive approach, this study not only uncovers the roots of herding behavior but also offers an assessment of the time windows during which it occurs, considering the plausible socioeconomic contexts that influence these trends.
Details
Keywords
Adnan Khan, Rohit Sindhwani, Mohd Atif and Ashish Varma
This study aims to test the market anomaly of herding behavior driven by the response to supply chain disruptions in extreme market conditions such as those observed during…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to test the market anomaly of herding behavior driven by the response to supply chain disruptions in extreme market conditions such as those observed during COVID-19. The authors empirically test the response of the capital market participants for B2B firms, resulting in herding behavior.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the event study approach based on the market model, the authors test the impact of supply chain disruptions and resultant herding behavior across six sectors and among different B2B firms. The authors used cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR) and cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) to examine the significance of herding behavior across sectors.
Findings
The event study results show a significant effect of COVID-19 due to supply chain disruptions across specific sectors. Herding was detected across the automotive and pharmaceutical sectors. The authors also provide evidence of sector-specific disruption impact and herding behavior based on the black swan event and social learning theory.
Originality/value
The authors examine the impact of COVID-19 on herding in the stock market of an emerging economy due to extreme market conditions. This is one of the first studies analyzing lockdown-driven supply chain disruptions and subsequent sector-specific herding behavior. Investors and regulators should take sector-specific responses that are sophisticated during extreme market conditions, such as a pandemic, and update their responses as the situation unfolds.
Details
Keywords
Sarra Gouta and Houda BenMabrouk
This study aims at exploring the nexus between herding behavior and the spillover effect in G7 and BRICS stock markets.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims at exploring the nexus between herding behavior and the spillover effect in G7 and BRICS stock markets.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors used the dynamic connectedness approach TVP-VAR model of Antonakakis et al. (2019) to capture the spillovers across different markets. Moreover, to explore herding behavior, the authors used a modified version of the CSAD measure of Chang et al. (2000) including extreme market movements. Finally, to study the link between these two phenomena, the authors estimated a DCC-GARCH model.
Findings
The results show that herding behavior exists in the American market and some BRICS markets. Furthermore, spillover between G7 and BRICS increases in times of crisis. Moreover, the authors find a dynamic conditional correlation between herding behavior and spillovers both in the short and long run. The authors conclude that in times of crisis, the transmission of shocks between markets is more frequent, fuelling uncertainty and pushing investors to suppress their own beliefs and follow the general market trends.
Originality/value
This paper uses the TVP-VAR model to explore the spillover effect and the DCC-GARCH model to explore the connectedness between herding behavior and the spillover effect in G7 and BRICS countries in both the short and long run.
Details
Keywords
Jeferson Carvalho, Paulo Vitor Jordão da Gama Silva and Marcelo Cabus Klotzle
This study investigates the presence of herding in the Brazilian stock market between 2012 and 2020 and associates it with the volume of searches on the Google platform.
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates the presence of herding in the Brazilian stock market between 2012 and 2020 and associates it with the volume of searches on the Google platform.
Design/methodology/approach
Following methodologies are used to investigate the presence of herding: the Cross-Sectional Standard Deviation of Returns (CSSD), the Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD) and the Cross-Sectional Deviation of Asset Betas to the Market.
Findings
Most of the models detected herding. In addition, there was a causal relationship between peaks in Google search volumes and the incidence of herding across the whole period, especially in 2015 and 2019.
Originality/value
This study suggests that confirmation bias influences investors' decisions to buy or sell assets.
Details
Keywords
Khemaies Bougatef and Imen Nejah
This study examines whether the Russia–Ukraine war affects herding behavior in the Moscow Exchange.
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines whether the Russia–Ukraine war affects herding behavior in the Moscow Exchange.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ the daily stock closing prices of 40 firms, which constitute the MOEX Russia Index from June 16, 2021, to November 30, 2022. The period before the invasion ranges from June 16, 2021, to February 23, 2022, while the post-invasion period runs from February 24, 2022, to November 30, 2022.
Findings
The findings suggest that the Russia–Ukraine war led to the formation of herding behavior among investors in Moscow Exchange. However, this herding behavior seems to be prevalent only during market downturns.
Research limitations/implications
The results are important for policymakers and fund managers since they help them understand behavior patterns of investors during periods of war. Given the devastating effect of herd behavior on market stability, policymakers should implement a strategy to avoid this behavior. The formation of herding behavior during the Russia–Ukraine war indicates that uncertainty and fear caused by Western sanctions lead investors to imitate others which, in turn, could lead to equity mispricing. Thus, firm managers should take into account this evidence in equity issuance decisions in order to time the market. The findings raise questions about the validity of the efficient market hypothesis during the periods of war.
Originality/value
This study represents the first attempt to explore whether the Russia–Ukraine conflict contributes to the appearance of herding behavior among investors on Moscow Exchange.
Details
Keywords
Muhammad Asim, Muhammad Yar Khan and Khuram Shafi
The study aims to investigate the presence of herding behavior in the stock market of UK with a special emphasis on news sentiment regarding the economy. The authors focus on the…
Abstract
Purpose
The study aims to investigate the presence of herding behavior in the stock market of UK with a special emphasis on news sentiment regarding the economy. The authors focus on the news sentiment because in the current digital era, investors take their decision making on the basis of current trends projected by news and media platforms.
Design/methodology/approach
For empirical modeling, the authors use machine learning models to investigate the presence of herding behavior in UK stock market for the period starting from 2006 to 2021. The authors use support vector regression, single layer neural network and multilayer neural network models to predict the herding behavior in the stock market of the UK. The authors estimate the herding coefficients using all the models and compare the findings with the linear regression model.
Findings
The results show a strong evidence of herding behavior in the stock market of the UK during different time regimes. Furthermore, when the authors incorporate the economic uncertainty news sentiment in the model, the results show a significant improvement. The results of support vector regression, single layer perceptron and multilayer perceptron model show the evidence of herding behavior in UK stock market during global financial crises of 2007–08 and COVID’19 period. In addition, the authors compare the findings with the linear regression which provides no evidence of herding behavior in all the regimes except COVID’19. The results also provide deep insights for both individual investors and policy makers to construct efficient portfolios and avoid market crashes, respectively.
Originality/value
In the existing literature of herding behavior, news sentiment regarding economic uncertainty has not been used before. However, in the present era this parameter is quite critical in context of market anomalies hence and needs to be investigated. In addition, the literature exhibits varying results about the existence of herding behavior when different methodologies are used. In this context, the use of machine learning models is quite rare in the herding literature. The machine learning models are quite robust and provide accurate results. Therefore, this research study uses three different models, i.e. single layer perceptron model, multilayer perceptron model and support vector regression model to investigate the herding behavior in the stock market of the UK. A comparative analysis is also presented among the results of all the models. The study sheds light on the importance of economic uncertainty news sentiment to predict the herding behavior.
Details
Keywords
Dorra Messaoud and Anis Ben Amar
Based on the theoretical framework, this paper analyzes the sentiment-herding relationship in emerging stock markets (ESMs). First, it aims to examine the effect of investor…
Abstract
Purpose
Based on the theoretical framework, this paper analyzes the sentiment-herding relationship in emerging stock markets (ESMs). First, it aims to examine the effect of investor sentiment on herding. Second, it seeks the direction of causality between sentiment and herding time series.
Design/methodology/approach
The present study applies the Exponential Generalized Auto_Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model to capture the volatility clustering of herding on the financial market and to investigate the role of the investor sentiment on herding behaviour. Then the vector autoregression (VAR) estimation uses the Granger causality test to determine the direction of causality between the investor sentiment and herding. This study uses a sample consisting of stocks listed on the Shanghai Composite index (SSE) (348 stocks), the Jakarta composite index (JKSE) (118 stocks), the Mexico IPC index (14 stocks), the Russian Trading System index (RTS) (12 stocks), the Warsaw stock exchange General index (WGI) (106 stocks) and the FTSE/JSE Africa all-share index (76 stocks). The sample includes 5,020 daily observations from February 1, 2002, to March 31, 2021.
Findings
The research findings show that the sentiment has a significant negative impact on the herding behaviour pointing out that the higher the investor sentiment, the lower the herding. However, the results of the present study indicate that a higher investor sentiment conducts a higher herding behaviour during market downturns. Then the outcomes suggest that during the crisis period, the direction is one-way, from the investor sentiment to the herding behaviour.
Practical implications
The findings may have implications for universal policies of financial regulators in EMs. We have found evidence that the Emerging investor sentiment contributes to the investor herding behaviour. Therefore, the irrational investor herding behaviour can increase the stock market volatility, and in extreme cases, it may lead to bubbles and crashes. Market regulators could implement mechanisms that can supervise the investor sentiment and predict the investor herding behaviour, so they make policies helping stabilise stock markets.
Originality/value
The originality of this paper lies in investigate the sentiment-herding relationship during the Surprime crisis and the Covid-19 epidemic in the EMs.
Details
Keywords
Faten Tlili, Mustapha Chaffai and Imed Medhioub
The aim of this paper is double: firstly, to examine the presence of herd behavior in four MENA stock markets (the Egyptian, Jordanian, Moroccan and Tunisian markets), and…
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this paper is double: firstly, to examine the presence of herd behavior in four MENA stock markets (the Egyptian, Jordanian, Moroccan and Tunisian markets), and secondly, to study the anchoring behavior in these markets.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ quantile regression analysis for testing herding bias in the MENA region, following the methodology of Chiang and Zheng (2010). Regarding the evaluation of anchoring bias, the authors follow the methodology of Lee et al. (2020). The study uses daily stock index returns ranging from April 1, 2011, to July 31, 2019, as well as CAC40 and NASDAQ returns.
Findings
The authors find evidence of herding during down-market periods in the lower tail for Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia, while this bias is detected during up-market periods in the lower tail for Morocco. In addition, based on historical returns, the authors conclude that there is a momentum effect in these markets, and they are dependent on the CAC40 and NASDAQ indices.
Practical implications
This paper confirms the findings of previous works devoted to some emerging markets such as China, Japan and Hong Kong, where anchoring and herding are considered the most important and impactful heuristic and cognitive biases in making decisions under uncertainty, particularly during down-market periods.
Originality/value
The paper contributes to the empirical literature in herding and anchoring biases for MENA countries. The absence of empirical work on the effect of these biases on stock prices in emerging markets and those of the MENA zone leads to the discussion of the impact of psychological biases on these of markets.
Details