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1 – 10 of 52Taoyuan Wei and Asbjørn Aaheim
This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation.
Design/methodology/approach
A systematic review is conducted to select, classify and analyze relevant studies from two databases of Web of Science and Scopus.
Findings
Totally, 170 articles based on selected keywords were found from both databases, where 56 articles were duplicates. The authors further excluded 17 articles owing to preliminary exclusion criteria. Hence, 97 papers were selected for full-text review and more detailed assessment. Only a few of the studies explicitly have addressed the role of autonomous adaptation embodied in the CGE models. Over one-third of the studies have focused on planned adaptation without explicitly mentioning autonomous adaptation. Agriculture was the most addressed sector, and country-level models are the most adopted. Only one article has focused on South America.
Research limitations/implications
The review suggests that autonomous adaptation embodied in CGE models was not well addressed in the literature. As the limited studies have shown that autonomous adaptation can dramatically mitigate direct climate change impacts, further studies are needed to examine the importance of the autonomous adaptation for better understanding of climate change impacts. Furthermore, CGE models can provide a joint assessment considering both mitigation and adaptation strategies and management measures as such models have also been widely used to address effects of mitigation measures in the literature.
Originality/value
The studies on climate change adaptation based on CGE models have been systematically reviewed, and state-of-the-art knowledge and research gaps have been identified.
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Syed Shoyeb Hossain, Yongwei Cui, Huang Delin and Xinyuan Zhang
Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most…
Abstract
Purpose
Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts the economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate scenarios.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and three climate change scenarios, this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture. It is clear from the examination of the CGE model that the impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply, reducing output by −3.25% and −3.70%, respectively, and increasing imports by 1.22% and 1.53% in 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline.
Findings
The findings reveal that, relative to baseline, agricultural output will decline by a range of −3.1% to −3.6% under the high climate scenario (higher temperatures and lower yields). A decrease in agricultural output results in declines in agricultural labor and household income. Household income falls in all categories, although it drops the most in urban less educated households with a range of −3.1% to −3.4%. On the other hand, consumption of commodities will fall by −0.11% to −0.13%, according to the findings. Although climate change impacts had a relatively small effect on gross domestic product, reducing it by −0.059% and −0.098% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.
Practical implications
As agricultural output, household consumption and income decline, it will impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition, hidden hunger, poverty, changing food environment, changing physical and mental health status and a changing health-care environment. Therefore, population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and political concern for Bangladesh Government.
Originality/value
The examination of the dynamic CGE model is its originality. In conclusion, the evidence generated here can provide important information to policymakers and guide government policies that contribute to national development and the achievement of food security targets. It is also necessary to put more emphasis on climate change issues and address potential risks in the following years.
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Since it is difficult for researchers to access data for the North Korean economy, they typically choose a proxy economy for estimating the economic impact of the unification of…
Abstract
Since it is difficult for researchers to access data for the North Korean economy, they typically choose a proxy economy for estimating the economic impact of the unification of the two Koreas using a computational general equilibrium (CGE). This paper aims to identify the best proxy economy for North Korea out of the 140 economies (countries) in the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database version 9.1, which was published in mid-2015. (Ed- if your study aim is ‘to identify the best proxy economy for North Korea’, then you must state your study finding here in the abstract, and also in the conclusion, i.e., Romania) This paper evaluates the input-output (IO) tables for the North Korean economy in existing studies. Comparing the coefficients for North Korea in existing studies with those of the countries selected for this paper, substantial differences were found, especially for the services sector. This casts some doubt on the IO tables in the existing studies on the North Korean economy.
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Among various distinctive formulations that have been developed simultaneously in East Asia as of 2009, this paper selected three major paths, ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6 and APEC, to…
Abstract
Among various distinctive formulations that have been developed simultaneously in East Asia as of 2009, this paper selected three major paths, ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6 and APEC, to quantitatively examine the economic impacts of Asian regionalization with the CGE model. This paper confirmed previous findings such as the magnitude of economic impact being proportional to the size of membership and the existence of trade diversion effect within all trade blocs. The subsequent KORUS and Korea-EU FTA imposition upon the built CGE base models further verified the effects of hub-and-spoke-ism in East Asia. Jointly, the simulation results implied that the economic impacts of a trade arrangement heavily depend on the subject economy’s reliance on trade with the participating states. It was also found that the impacts were directly proportional to the accrued trade balance of the subject spoke country with both the hub state and the hub-destination. This could have been exaggerated as the scope of this study was limited to East Asia where KORUS FTA was found to be more influential than Korea-EU FTA due to its exceptionally high reliance on the US. On the course of this research to verify the aforementioned findings, however, both GTAP 6 and 7 were adopted, and hence, the economic impacts of China’s accession to the WTO in the global trade system were also empirically proven.
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Le Trung Ngoc Phat and Nguyen Kim Hanh
The purpose of this paper is to employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach to examine how the European–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) impacts on the Vietnamese…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach to examine how the European–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) impacts on the Vietnamese economy in the case of the removal of industrial tariffs.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors construct a social accounting matrix based on the latest data of the Vietnam input-output Table for the year 2012 and then apply the CGE model to simulate the economic scenarios when the tariff rate of the industrial sector reduces to 0 percent.
Findings
The first simulation results demonstrate that the elimination of tariffs in the industrial sector will lead to a 9.13 percent increase in household consumption, together with an increase in the factors of production of the agricultural, industrial and service sectors by 9.61, 9.74 and 8.21 percent, respectively. The EVFTA also causes a deficit in the trade balance because the value of imports increases by 12.54 percent, while exports’ value slightly increases by 2.71 percent. Furthermore, there has been a drop of 2.29 percent in the total government income; nevertheless, social welfare witnesses a gain of 9.13 percent. The second scenario simulation draws crucial attention to policymakers that a small fluctuation in the production tax rate will cause a significant change in the economy.
Practical implications
The reduction of tariff in the industrial sector will increase the social welfare and strengthen the whole economy regarding the growth of household consumption, factors of production and trade value. On the unfavorable side, the EVFTA causes a national budget deficit and puts pressure on domestic production. This paper is a valuable reference for governments and policymakers when they decide to reduce tariffs or adjust production taxes once Vietnam integrates into the world economy.
Originality/value
This study differs from previous research works by utilizing a static CGE model to investigate the impact of removing the industrial tariff on the economy under EVFTA.
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Christopher Belford, Delin Huang, Yosri Nasr Ahmed, Ebrima Ceesay and Lang Sanyang
Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are…
Abstract
Purpose
Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are colossal. This study aims to establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for The Gambia’s agriculture sector to examine the effects of climate change on crops, livestock and sea-level rise.
Design/methodology/approach
This study used a CGE model with other climate change impact models to compute the impacts of climate change on The Gambia’s agriculture sector. The social accounting matrix calibrates the results from the various models, thereby generating the baseline results which exemplify a “steady-state” and policy shock results illustrating the medium- and long-term effects of climate change on the country’s agriculture sector.
Findings
The baseline results indicate the status quo showing the neglect of the agriculture sector due to limited investment in the sector. Hence, the sector is the “hardest hit” sector as a result of climate change. When the model factored in climate change in the medium term (2055) and long term (2085), the macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product, national savings, wages, disposable income and consumer price index deteriorated, elucidating the vulnerability of the economy to climate change. The consumption of groundnuts, cattle and fish will decline by 5%, 5% and 4%, respectively, in the long term. However, the production of all agricultural commodities will decline by an average of 35% for the same period. The results for international trade show that exportation would decline while importation will increase over time. The general price level for agricultural commodities would increase by 3% in 2055 and 5% in 2085. Generally, the results manifest the severity of climate change in the agriculture sector which will have a multiplier effect on the economy. The impact of climate change would result in agriculture and economic decline causing hunger, poverty and human misery.
Originality/value
The caveat of this study revealed the nuances not captured by previous Gambian climate change studies, thus the novelty of the study.
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Zerayehu Sime Eshete, Dawit Woubishet Mulatu and Tsegaye Ginbo Gatiso
Climate change has become one of the most important development challenges worldwide. It affects various sectors, with agriculture the most vulnerable. In Ethiopia, climate change…
Abstract
Purpose
Climate change has become one of the most important development challenges worldwide. It affects various sectors, with agriculture the most vulnerable. In Ethiopia, climate change impacts are exacerbated due to the economy’s heavy dependence on agriculture. The Ethiopian Government has started to implement its climate-resilient green economy (CRGE) strategy and reduce CO2 emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of CO2 emission on agricultural productivity and household welfare.
Design/methodology/approach
This study aims to fill these significant research and knowledge gaps using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model to investigate CO2 emissions’ impact on agricultural performance and household welfare.
Findings
The results indicate that CO2 emissions negatively affect agricultural productivity and household welfare. Compared to the baseline, real agricultural gross domestic product is projected to be 4.5% lower in the 2020s under a no-CRGE scenario. Specifically, CO2 emissions lead to a decrease in the production of traded and non-traded crops, but not livestock. Emissions also worsen the welfare of all segments of households, where the most vulnerable groups are the rural-poor households.
Originality/value
The debate in the area is not derived from a rigorous analysis and holistic economy-wide approach. Therefore, the paper fills this gap and is original by value and examines these issues methodically.
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In the last two decades, the dependence of Taiwan’s manufacturing production on imported intermediate inputs has steadily risen. Meanwhile, the market share of imported consumable…
Abstract
In the last two decades, the dependence of Taiwan’s manufacturing production on imported intermediate inputs has steadily risen. Meanwhile, the market share of imported consumable manufacture products has also increased. The steady rise of both import shares may not be explained by price fact or since the relative import prices have shown no decreasing trend. The scenario of constantly buying more imported goods when they are not cheaper can be treated as a preference change in favor of imported goods, which may be caused by the popularity of outsourcing, increasing product varieties and persistent trade barriers, as literatures indicated. Traditional macroeconomic models primarily consider the price mechanism in their import demand estimates, with no concern for changes in import preferences. Neglecting changing import preferences in a rapid globalization environment may yield biased empirical results. In this article, we incorporate the import preference factor into a single-country Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and use it firstly to quantify the scale of preferences change and then to test how the preferences change affects the effects of trade policy. The empirical results with and without the concern of import preferences change are compared to yield the scale of bias caused by neglecting the change.
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Discussion of unification was for several decades focused on the costs rather than the benefits for Korea, until reports emphasizing the latter were published by Goldman Sachs…
Abstract
Discussion of unification was for several decades focused on the costs rather than the benefits for Korea, until reports emphasizing the latter were published by Goldman Sachs (2009) and various Korean think tanks over the past four to five years. Although these studies can be evaluated positively in pointing out the benefits of unification rather than the concerns about the costs, several questions can be raised. This paper tries to evaluate the quality and credibility of existing studies and suggests a new approach for estimating the impact of unification. It proposes a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model to be based on the social accounting matrix (SAM) and input-output (IO) table for the North Korean economy, in order to produce more reliable estimates of the benefits and costs of unification and the impact of various cooperative activities between the two Koreas.
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Sun Yan and Shahzad Alvi
The first purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes on food security, welfare and GDP in South Asian countries. The second…
Abstract
Purpose
The first purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes on food security, welfare and GDP in South Asian countries. The second purpose is to assess the agricultural subsidies and South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) as policy responses to climate change.
Design/methodology/approach
The present study uses the computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework and econometric approach in an integrated manner to examine the economic impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes in South Asian countries. An econometric model is used to identify the impact of climate change on cereal yields and CGE approach is used to assess the future effect of climate change through simulations. In this course, the econometric findings are applied to Multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project 10 and then the model is calibrated for future projection.
Findings
The results indicate that there is a decrease in cereals production because of climate change and eventually it increases the prices of cereals, decreases the local consumption and GDP and, as a result, causes a loss in welfare. Subsidies and SAFTA have been found to have no substantial impact on increasing food security in South Asia.
Originality/value
The present study uses the concept of food demand for all cereals in an integrated way and focuses on the fiscal and trade policy responses to climate change.
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