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The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

Healthcare property has become an important alternate property sector in recent years for many international institutional investors. The purpose of this paper is to assess the risk-adjusted performance, portfolio diversification benefits and performance dynamics of French healthcare property in a French property portfolio and mixed-asset portfolio over 1999–2020. French healthcare property is seen to have different performance dynamics to the traditional French property sectors of office, retail and industrial property. Drivers and risk factors for the ongoing development of the direct healthcare property sector in France are also identified, as well as the strategic property investment implications for institutional investors.

Using annual total returns, the risk-adjusted performance, portfolio diversification benefits and performance dynamics of French direct healthcare property over 1999–2020 are assessed. Asset allocation diagrams are used to assess the role of direct healthcare property in a French property portfolio and in a French mixed-asset portfolio. The role of specific drivers for French healthcare property performance is also assessed. Robustness checks are also done to assess the potential impact of COVID-19 on the performance of French healthcare property.

French healthcare property is shown to have different performance dynamics to the traditional French property sectors of office, retail and industrial property. French direct healthcare property delivered strong risk-adjusted returns compared to French stocks, listed healthcare and listed property over 1999–2020, only exceeded by direct property. Portfolio diversification benefits in the fuller mixed-asset portfolio context were also evident, but to a much lesser extent in a narrower property portfolio context. Importantly, this sees French direct healthcare property as strongly contributing to the French property and mixed-asset portfolios across the entire portfolio risk spectrum and validating the property industry perspective of healthcare property being low risk and providing diversification benefits in a mixed-asset portfolio. However, this was to some degree to the loss or substitution of traditional direct property exposure via this replacement effect. French direct healthcare property and listed healthcare are clearly shown to be different channels in delivering different aspects of French healthcare performance to investors. Drivers of French healthcare property performance are also shown to be both economic and healthcare-specific factors. The performance of French healthcare property is also shown to be different to that seen for healthcare property in the UK and Australia. During COVID-19, French healthcare property was able to show more resilience than French office and retail property.

Healthcare property is an alternate property sector that has become increasingly important in recent years. The results highlight the important role of direct healthcare property in a French property portfolio and in a French mixed-asset portfolio, with French healthcare property having different investment dynamics to the other traditional French property sectors. The strong risk-adjusted performance of French direct healthcare property compared to French stocks, listed healthcare and listed property sees French direct healthcare property contributing to the mixed-asset portfolio across the entire portfolio risk spectrum. French healthcare property’s resilience during COVID-19 was also an attractive investment feature. This is particularly important, as many institutional investors now see healthcare property as an important property sector in their overall portfolio; particularly with the ageing population dynamics in most countries and the need for effective social infrastructure. The importance of French direct healthcare property sees direct healthcare property exposure accessible to investors as an important alternate real estate sector for their portfolios going forward via both non-listed healthcare property funds and the further future establishment of more healthcare REITs to accommodate both large and small institutional investors respectively. The resilience of French healthcare property during COVID-19 is also an attractive feature for future-proofing an investor’s portfolio.

This paper is the first published empirical research analysis of the risk-adjusted performance, diversification benefits and performance dynamics of French direct healthcare property, and the role of direct healthcare property in a French property portfolio and in a French mixed-asset portfolio. This research enables empirically validated, more informed and practical property investment decision-making regarding the strategic role of French direct healthcare property in a portfolio; particularly where the strategic role of direct healthcare property in France is seen to be different to that in the UK and Australia via portfolio replacement effects. Clear evidence is also seen of the drivers of French healthcare property performance being strongly influenced by healthcare-specific factors, as well as economic factors.

The primary aim of this paper is to concurrently use the data types to enhance econometric analysis in the housing market in developing countries, particularly Namibia.

Scholarly discussions on econometric analysis in the housing market in sub-Saharan Africa suggest that the inadequacy of time series data has impeded studies of such nature in the region. Hence, this paper aims to comparatively analyse the impact of economic fundamentals on house prices in Namibia using real and interpolated data from 1990 to 2021 supported by the ARDL model.

It was discovered that in all the three types of data house prices were affected by fundamentals except real GDP in the long term. It was also noted that there were not much significant variations between the real data and the interpolated data frequencies. However, the results of the annual data and the semi-annual interpolated data were more analogously comparable to the quarterly interpolated data

It is suggested that the adoption of interpolated data frequency type should be based on the statistical significance of the result. In addition, the need to monitor the nexus of the housing market and fundamentals is necessary for stable and sustainable housing market for enhanced policy direction and prudent property investment decision.

The study pioneer to concurrently use the data types to enhance econometric analysis in the housing market in developing countries.

The purpose of this paper is to assess sub-national business cycle (BC) synchronization's impact on national cycles in four emerging markets economies with inflation targeting (IT-EMEs): Brazil, Colombia, South Korea and Mexico.

The authors use panel data models with fixed-effects and distributed lags.

The authors disclosed that sub-national synchronization increased national cycle amplitudes during expansion and recession phases. The authors also noticed that South Korea exhibited a more pronounced effect compared to Latin American countries, and this seemed to be associated with differences in the homogeneity of the production structures in the regions of these countries.

The authors cautioned that contrasting the findings with prior research on the effects of regional BC synchronization in IT-EMEs or with studies in different geographical contexts, is not possible due to the absence of prior research endeavors with this specific focus.

This study constitutes a first attempt to explain the impact of subnational cycle synchronization on the magnitude of national cycles in four IT-EMEs.

This paper offers a new perspective on the potential motivation for the adoption of employee ownership based on market power. Employee ownership may be linked to market power, either through contributing to firm growth that leads to market power or through industry leaders adopting employee ownership as part of rent sharing or a broader consolidation of market position. Both employee stock ownership plan (ESOP) coverage and product market concentration (PMC) have been increasing in the past two decades, providing a good opportunity to see if and how these are related.

The authors predict ESOP adoption and termination using multilevel regressions based on 2002–2012 firm- and industry-level data from the Census Bureau, Compustat and Form 5500 pension datasets.

The authors find that the top four firms in concentrated industries are more likely to adopt Employee Stock Ownership Plans (ESOPs), while having an ESOP does not predict entering the top four, apart from firm-level predictors. Tests indicate the first result does not reflect simple rent sharing with employees but instead appears to reflect an effort by firms to consolidate market power through the attraction and retention (or “locking in”) of industry talent. Other positive predictors of ESOPs include company size, being in a high-wage industry and having a defined benefit (DB) pension.

To better distinguish among hypotheses, it would be helpful to have firm-level data on managerial attitudes, strategies, networks and monopsony measures. Therefore, future research using such data would be highly useful and encouraged.

The paper includes implications for the potential usefulness of ESOPs in attracting and retaining talent and for the design of nuanced policy to encourage more broadly based sharing of economic rewards.

While prior research focuses on firm-level predictors of employee ownership, this study uses market concentration and other industry-level variables to predict the use of ESOPs. This study makes a unique contribution, broadening the current thinking on firm motives and environmental conditions predictive of firm ESOP adoption.

The digital transformation is dramatically changing the business-to-business (B2B) sales environment, challenging long-standing views regarding the critical competencies required of salespeople. This paper aims to explore the personal traits associated with sales performance in a digital selling environment.

Using template analysis, the researchers captured and coded over 21 h of in-depth, semi-structured interviews with senior sales leaders from various industry sectors, exploring their perceptions of the personal traits now required of B2B salespeople in the digital landscape.

The research identifies three high-level trait types critical to sales success within a digital selling environment: “analytical curiosity” – the natural motivation and ability to gather and synthesize sales-related knowledge, “empathetic citizenship” – the ability to establish initial rapport while building long-term trust and “disciplined drive” – the exertion of selling effort in a highly focused and methodical manner across all stages of the sales process.

The present data came from interviews with sales leaders in Canada. A more global sample may lead to additional insights. Moreover, the sample was drawn from long-cycle B2B sales environments; conclusions may differ for short-cycle or business-to-consumer markets.

This paper presents a framework for hiring and developing salespeople in the digital sales environment, identifying personal trait types that sales leaders should look for when hiring: analytical curiosity, empathetic citizenship and disciplined drive. The paper identifies how these trait types influence sales success, suggesting that sales leaders could coach and educate their teams to make the best use of them.

This paper presents a conceptual framework for hiring in the digital sales environment and introduces the trait of analytical curiosity not previously discussed in the literature.

Consumer goods firms often tie up inventory and accounts receivable resources, creating cost and liquidity issues. Dynamic working capital management (DWCM) can mitigate these concerns and enhance operational profitability. The study investigates DWCM's impact on operational efficiency (OE).

The empirical estimation uses pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), random effect and system generalized method moments (GMM) regression analysis of consumer goods firms in Scandinavia from 2005 to 2022 to present the results.

The findings indicate that DWCM has an inverse relationship with operating cost, while positively impacting operating profit. The final outcome demonstrates that DWCM enhances OE. Furthermore, the working capital ratio (WCR) consistently exceeds the cash conversion cycle (CCC) in all models, indicating that prudent management of cash in accounts receivable, inventory and accounts payable leads to higher cost savings and superior performance.

The results suggest that organizations that prioritize the management of the absolute cash committed to inventory, receivables and payables as much as the CCC experience improved OE.

This paper adds to the literature on how DWCM affects OE in the consumer goods sector. It also highlights the impact of time management and cash management in WCM on OE. Additionally, it analyzes how DWCM variables affect operating costs and profits, shedding light on their efficiency impact.

This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.

This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.

The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.

This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.

This study aims to further develop the CLC stage/path’s identification model that distinguishes between path’s emergence (emergence stage), path’s development (growth stage), path’s sustainment (maturity stage), path’s decline (decline stage) and path’s transformation (renewal stage), and by applying it, define the current stage/path of the Demarcated Douro Region (DDR) cluster. The Port wine industry, which is the dominant industry of the DDR cluster, is at the maturity/decline stage – is the same for the cluster itself?

It is a case study with a longitudinal perspective based on the analysis of the dynamics of the parameters of cluster evolution using available secondary sources (cluster identity/brand; number of firms; number of employees; network; innovation; policies and regulations; and external markets – exports), especially addressing the past decade, that represent the stage of maturity/decline of the cluster’s dominant Port wine industry.

The conclusion is that since the 1990s the Demarcated Douro Region has gone through a “path transformation” where during the following 20 years new “anchors” for the cluster were gradually introduced, such as Doc Douro Wines, new forms of consumption of Port wine, tourism and olive oil. Since 2010 the cluster has entered a growth stage/(new) path’s development, where these “anchors” are in steady growth. The Douro brand is becoming more internationally recognized and established, the number of firms and employees is increasing, the network is restructuring with the creation of cluster-specific official institutions, innovation is especially reflected with increasing heterogeneity through diversification of the clusters into new activities and regulations and policies are supportive for expansion – all these parameters are indicating the rise of the new cycle for the cluster. Thus, the DDR cluster represents an attractive business environment and requires attention from regional policymakers to support the cluster’s development. Especially institutions have been highlighted as internal factors driving clusters growth, European integration as an external factor and firms’ strategies of diversification and internationalization as an appropriate de-locking mechanism for new path’s development.

This research contributes to the CLC theory by further developing and applying a CLC stage/path identification model. It provides a better understanding of the dynamics of the DDR cluster that diverge from its dominant industry life cycle, which is relevant for regional policies and firms’ strategies. This study has its limitations. It provides an exploratory application of the theoretical framework proposed, and consequently, no general conclusions are possible yet. More empirical studies with different clusters in different stages are necessary to test the framework.

These findings are useful to policymakers when designing their policies for cluster development but also for clusters’ entities and actors when making their strategic decisions as it allows based on the verification of the established parameter of CLC to identify its current stage/path of development.

The paper presents a theoretically grounded model for CLC identification and for the first time to the best of the authors’ knowledge applies it to a cluster case – the DDR cluster. This case applies the proposed model and illustrates its usefulness. The model provides the tools for a better understanding of cluster dynamics.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in four precious metal prices (i.e. gold, palladium, platinum and silver) during the last four US recessions.

Using daily price data for gold, palladium, platinum and silver running from July 2, 1990, to March 21, 2022, and dating of business cycles in the USA provided by NBER (2022), the paper uses fractional integration to test the degree of persistence of precious metal prices.

The empirical analysis shows the unrelenting prominence of gold in relation to other precious metals (palladium, platinum and silver) as a hedge against market uncertainty in the post-pandemic new era.

Two are the main contributions of the paper. Firstly, the authors contribute to the commodity markets and finance literature on precious metal price modelling. Secondly, the authors also contribute to the literature on commodity markets and business cycles with a special focus on recessionary periods.