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The purpose of this paper is to provide a systematic classification for frameworks, methods, and models of in-project quantitative risk analysis (IQRA) for the last 30 years.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide a systematic classification for frameworks, methods, and models of in-project quantitative risk analysis (IQRA) for the last 30 years.
Design/methodology/approach
An extensive literature review is conducted to identify pertinent IQRA works. Identified IQRA frameworks/methods/models are then classified on the basis of commonalities in key attributes and assumptions. Linkages between each category of IQRAs and dimensions of complexity are also observed.
Findings
Around 70 key publications on IQRAs are identified. Major attributes for each work are described. Five distinct categories of IQRAs emerge with unique linkages to complexity dimensions. An analytical framework in the form of a matrix is presented to illuminate evolution on modeling characteristics and to indicate a relationship between respective category and dimensions of project complexity.
Research limitations/implications
The research coverage is intended to be comprehensive but it is by no means exhaustive. This study highlights research opportunities in IQRAs and the possible extension toward in-project quantitative complexity analysis (IQCA).
Practical implications
The proposed matrix provides guidance to practitioners to select the appropriate category of IQRAs for a specific project complexity type in a contingency fashion. The study highlights lessons from development and utilization of IQRAs. Outstanding issues from IQRAs are discussed to avoid similar drawbacks for IQCAs.
Originality/value
This study provides an original framework/matrix to classify extant works in IQRAs. It also establishes an association between IQRAs and the emerging conceptual works of complexity.
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Budi Hartono, Deo F.N. Wijaya and Hilya M. Arini
– The purpose of this paper is to develop and to empirically verify a model of project risk management maturity (PRMM).
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to develop and to empirically verify a model of project risk management maturity (PRMM).
Design/methodology/approach
Theoretical work to develop the initial model of risk maturity. Empirical study by a cross-sectional survey to the Indonesian construction industry.
Findings
A new model of PRMM is developed and empirically tested. The model is valid (face validity, content validity, discriminant validity, convergent validity, and criterion validity) and reliable.
Research limitations/implications
A more comprehensive, follow-up study is required to gain more insights on the actual maturity level of Indonesian construction industry.
Practical implications
The model is applicable to assess the organizational maturity level which in turn could be used for improving organization performance.
Originality/value
The work demonstrates a novel approach in developing models by emphasizing on the empirical verification.
Rayenda Khresna Brahmana, Doddy Setiawan and Chee Wooi Hooy
The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the presence of controlling shareholder affects the value of diversification based on Indonesian listed firms. It further…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the presence of controlling shareholder affects the value of diversification based on Indonesian listed firms. It further examines whether the degree of controlling ownership and the types of controlling ownership matter.
Design/methodology/approach
Panel data were used over the period 2006-2010 with dynamic generalised method-of-moments estimations and it defined diversification as industrial diversification, international diversification or diversification in both. A few different thresholds for the control rights of the largest shareholder are also set.
Findings
The results show that industrial diversification improves firm value but international diversification does not, while diversified in both strategies discounted firm value. The presence of a controlling shareholder is found to have a significant diversification discount, and the effect is nonlinear, where the entrenchment effect occurs around 20 to60 per cent threshold of controlling across all types of diversified firms. Last, foreign firms are found to enjoy more value from industrial diversification, but it takes an adverse turn when these involve both diversification strategies. Government firms do not seem to be different from family firms.
Research limitations/implications
The study shows the need to differentiate diversification strategies and account for non-linearity and ownership identity in modelling diversification value. Also, the degree of shareholders’ control can be a significant channel to address the agency issue on diversification value.
Practical implications
Under the backdrop of unique Indonesian corporate ownership, the presence of controlling owners is shown, and their ownership affects the value of diversification. The entrenchment effect however appears only at a certain range of ownership. This is a crucial guide for the shareholders to ensure an appropriate monitoring system is installed to maximize the shareholder’s value, especially in family firms.
Originality/value
The value of this paper is twofold. At first, the first empirical evidence on the diversification debate with Indonesian firms for its unique institutional setting is presented. Second, the standard modelling framework to investigate the types of ownership on diversification value is extended, which has rarely been covered in previous investigations.
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Rahul Dandage, Shankar S. Mantha and Santosh B. Rane
The purpose of this paper is to review the risk categories which are predominant in international projects and to rank them according to their effect on project success.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to review the risk categories which are predominant in international projects and to rank them according to their effect on project success.
Design/methodology/approach
A literature survey of peer-reviewed journal articles, survey reports and books on project management is used as the research methodology. One among the various multi-criteria decision making methods named as Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) has been used to rank the risk categories according to their importance. The data for TOPSIS were collected through questionnaire as the research instrument.
Findings
The findings derived from evaluation of the publications led to the identification of eight different types of risk categories associated with international projects. The TOPSIS method resulted into political risks, technical risks and design-related risks as the top three risk categories in international projects. Contractual and legal risks and fraudulent practices-related risks are relatively low-ranked risk category.
Research limitations/implications
The findings will be useful in successful implementation of international projects as the knowledge of risk categories and their ranking will help project manager to plan the risk response strategies. A larger sample size for decision makers and more variety of projects can give more exhaustive risk categories and their ranking.
Practical implications
This paper explores eight different risk categories in international projects. It represents the ranking of risk categories according to their importance in project success. This will be helpful to project managers for developing a general framework for planning the appropriate risk response strategies.
Social implications
Governments of many countries around the world are encouraging their industries to undertake and successfully complete projects in foreign countries. However, many industries experience failure in projects as they fail to implement the risk management (RM) effectively in international projects. This research work provides the risk categories in international projects and their ranking which can assist in developing strategies to respond the risk appropriately.
Originality/value
This paper uses the TOPSIS method for ranking major types of risk categories in international projects. It might represent new opportunities for rigorous and relevant research that would contribute to an in-depth knowledge of RM methodologies.
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This study aims to investigate the dynamic aspects in the capital structure decisions of firms in Indonesia, offering an extension to the existing literature on Indonesia via a…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the dynamic aspects in the capital structure decisions of firms in Indonesia, offering an extension to the existing literature on Indonesia via a dynamic model, including the existence of target capital structure, the influencing factors, the speed of adjustments and the supporting theories to explain the findings.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a dynamic partial adjustment model estimated based on a generalized method of moments.
Findings
Indonesian firms do practice target capital structure and are influenced by firm-specific factors like profitability, business risk, firm size, liquidity and share price performance due to time-varying factors. A rapid adjustment toward target leverage is detected, thus supporting the existence of the dynamic trade-off theory (TOT). The pecking order theory (POT) also has significant influence, particularly after the new reformation of financing policy, where retained earnings are also preferred as a source of financing apart from merely external financing through bank loans. There are also traces of market timing influences where firms also seem to time their equity issuance.
Research limitations/implications
Despite relatively utilizing recent data and bigger sample firms compared to the previous limited studies on Indonesia, the results of this study, however, need to be cautiously interpreted. First, the sample chosen focused on listed firms, hence may not be generalized to all Indonesian firms, listed and unlisted. Second, the study does not separate firms by sectors and their leverage positions, that is under-levered and over-levered, so as to note that financial decisions may also be affected by the sector in which the firms operate and their leverage positions. These are to be considered in future research.
Practical implications
There is strong evidence that the corporate financing behavior of Indonesian firms is governed by the POT and TOT. Both are dealing with the function of debt. The financial sector reformation does have a positive impact on the banking sector, but not the local corporate bond market. Therefore, regulators and policymakers should bear in mind that banking as well as private bond market in Indonesia must be tailored in such a way that both could act as intermediaries of debt financing, as bond market represents an important component of a diversified financial sector.
Originality/value
This study fills the gap by providing an extension to the existing literature and a deeper insight of the capital structure of Indonesian firms using a more robust dynamic model.
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Al Sentot Sudarwanto and Dona Budi Kharisma
This study aims to propose a law enforcement strategy for investment fraud through comparative studies in the United States of America (USA), Canada and Indonesia, and to identify…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to propose a law enforcement strategy for investment fraud through comparative studies in the United States of America (USA), Canada and Indonesia, and to identify the factors that cause weak law enforcement on investment fraud with the object of a binary options case study in Indonesia.
Design/methodology/approach
This research is a type of legal research, namely, research based on legal materials (library-based). The legal materials used include primary legal materials and secondary legal materials. The approaches used are the statute approach, the case approach and the comparative approach. The data collection technique used in this research is a literature study. The analysis was carried out qualitatively by using an interactive model.
Findings
In 2022, the Indonesian Financial Services Authority (OJK) recorded that the total value of public losses because of investment fraud in Indonesia reached 117.4tn IDR. Weak law enforcement is the reason investment fraud thrives in society. Strategies that can be implemented to prevent investment fraud include early detection of new investment fraud modes through the whistleblower program, mutual legal assistance in criminal matters, criminal restitution and improvement of public financial literacy.
Research limitations/implications
This study examines the problems of law enforcement against investment fraud with a case study of binary options in Indonesia. A law enforcement strategy is built on identifying issues and adopting law enforcement policies against investment fraud in Canada and the USA.
Practical implications
For individuals, the results of this research can be used as reading material to increase their understanding of investment fraud. For the government, the results of this study can be a reference in an effort to eradicate the rise of investment fraud cases more effectively and create a safe digital economic space for investors.
Social implications
The results of this study are expected to be useful in providing recommendations for strategies to strengthen law enforcement against the problems of investment fraud cases so as to form a conducive investment climate in the sense of being safe, comfortable and profitable.
Originality/value
Legal frameworks to prevent investment fraud are rarely discussed. The rise in binary options cases that occur is an indication of weak law enforcement in the investment sector. Therefore, an in-depth study of law enforcement strategies to prevent investment fraud is needed, with comparative studies in the USA, Canada and Indonesia.
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Arfah Habib Saragih and Syaiful Ali
The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of managerial ability on corporate tax risk and long-term tax avoidance using the upper echelons theory.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of managerial ability on corporate tax risk and long-term tax avoidance using the upper echelons theory.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a quantitative method with regression models, using a sample of listed firms on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2011 to 2018.
Findings
The regression results report that managerial ability negatively influences tax risk and positively impacts long-run tax avoidance. Companies with more able managers have a relatively lower tax risk and greater long-run tax avoidance. The results reveal that firms with managers that possess greater abilities are more committed to long-run tax avoidance while concurrently maintaining a lower level of their tax risk. The impacts the authors report are statistically significant and robust, as proved by a series of robustness checks and additional tests.
Research limitations/implications
This study only includes firms from one developing country.
Practical implications
The empirical results might be of interest to board members while envisaging the benefits and costs of appointing and hiring managers, as well as to the tax authority and the other stakeholders interested in apprehending how managerial ability influences corporate tax risk and long-run tax avoidance practices simultaneously.
Originality/value
This study proposes and tests an explanation for the impact of managerial ability on corporate tax risk and long-run avoidance simultaneously in the context of an emerging country.
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Gang Liu, Aino Kianto and Eric Tsui
This meta-analytic study tries to synthesize the mixed relationships between knowledge management technologies (KMT) and organizational performance as well as aims to explore the…
Abstract
Purpose
This meta-analytic study tries to synthesize the mixed relationships between knowledge management technologies (KMT) and organizational performance as well as aims to explore the impacts of contextual elements, such as national culture, economy and industries, on these relationships.
Design/methodology/approach
Findings on various subjects from 40 previous empirical studies were examined using meta-analysis.
Findings
It was found that KMT are positively related to overall organizational performance as well as financial and nonfinancial performance and that the relationship between KMT and financial performance is stronger in developing economies than in developed economies.
Practical implications
It helps practitioners better understand the role of KMT in organizational performance in various contexts and provides practical suggestions for KMT implementation.
Originality/value
As the first meta-analytic study to address the generalizability of KMT–organizational performance relationships, this paper offers an improved understanding of the benefits of KMT. It also expands knowledge about how contextual issues related to national culture, economies and industries affect KMT payoffs.
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Wakhid Slamet Ciptono, Grisna Anggadwita and Nurul Indarti
Ex-prisoners often experience negative stigma from society, making it difficult to find employment upon release. Prison institutions play an active role in building character and…
Abstract
Purpose
Ex-prisoners often experience negative stigma from society, making it difficult to find employment upon release. Prison institutions play an active role in building character and improving prisoners' skills by providing various empowerment programs to increase opportunities for their economic potential. However, these programs are considered not optimal in increasing the entrepreneurial intentions of prisoners. This study aims to identify the effects of prison entrepreneurship programs, entrepreneurial resilience and self-efficacy as drivers in increasing prisoners' entrepreneurial intentions. This study also examines the effect of these variables focusing on prisoners with neither entrepreneurial experience nor entrepreneurial training.
Design/methodology/approach
This study deployed a quantitative method by distributing a questionnaire to prisoners involved in talent and skill development activities (called BIMKER, an abbreviation in Indonesian, which means Work Guidance), a compulsory program provided by prison institutions. A total of 204 prisoners, including 70 with no entrepreneurial experience, completed the research questionnaire in one of the prison institutions in Indonesia. Partial least sequential-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was used as the analytical technique.
Findings
The study findings show that the prison entrepreneurship program has not been able to influence prisoners' entrepreneurial intentions directly. However, the prison entrepreneurship program has a positive and significant effect on increasing prisoners' self-efficacy and entrepreneurial resilience that ultimately encourages the emergence of entrepreneurial intentions. Entrepreneurial resilience was found not to affect entrepreneurial intentions for prisoners with no entrepreneurial experience and who have never attended entrepreneurship training.
Originality/value
This study identifies the drivers of prisoners' entrepreneurial intentions, including prison entrepreneurship programs, self-efficacy and entrepreneurial resilience. These can be used as references to build understanding at the theoretical level and can be adopted practically. This study expands the social cognitive theory (SCT) and entrepreneurial intention models (EIMs) by adding new insights into the context of prison entrepreneurship that underline the potential of prisoners engaging in entrepreneurship, once released, to expand opportunities, learning and employment. This study highlights the importance of implementing prison entrepreneurship programs to reduce crime, recidivism rates, poverty and inequality.
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