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Article
Publication date: 2 July 2018

From project risk to complexity analysis: a systematic classification

Budi Hartono

The purpose of this paper is to provide a systematic classification for frameworks, methods, and models of in-project quantitative risk analysis (IQRA) for the last 30 years.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide a systematic classification for frameworks, methods, and models of in-project quantitative risk analysis (IQRA) for the last 30 years.

Design/methodology/approach

An extensive literature review is conducted to identify pertinent IQRA works. Identified IQRA frameworks/methods/models are then classified on the basis of commonalities in key attributes and assumptions. Linkages between each category of IQRAs and dimensions of complexity are also observed.

Findings

Around 70 key publications on IQRAs are identified. Major attributes for each work are described. Five distinct categories of IQRAs emerge with unique linkages to complexity dimensions. An analytical framework in the form of a matrix is presented to illuminate evolution on modeling characteristics and to indicate a relationship between respective category and dimensions of project complexity.

Research limitations/implications

The research coverage is intended to be comprehensive but it is by no means exhaustive. This study highlights research opportunities in IQRAs and the possible extension toward in-project quantitative complexity analysis (IQCA).

Practical implications

The proposed matrix provides guidance to practitioners to select the appropriate category of IQRAs for a specific project complexity type in a contingency fashion. The study highlights lessons from development and utilization of IQRAs. Outstanding issues from IQRAs are discussed to avoid similar drawbacks for IQCAs.

Originality/value

This study provides an original framework/matrix to classify extant works in IQRAs. It also establishes an association between IQRAs and the emerging conceptual works of complexity.

Details

International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMPB-09-2017-0108
ISSN: 1753-8378

Keywords

  • Complexity
  • Review
  • Project risk
  • Quantitative risk analysis
  • Risk analysis classification

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Article
Publication date: 1 September 1997

An analysis of risk classifications for residential mortgage loans

Day‐Yang Liu and Shin‐Ping Lee

Aims to distinguish among different levels of default risk for residential mortgage loans and to examine the significant factors for the different levels of default risk…

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Abstract

Aims to distinguish among different levels of default risk for residential mortgage loans and to examine the significant factors for the different levels of default risk. Classifies the sample into default and non‐default groups and analyses the original mortgage loan data by factor and cluster analyses based on borrower characteristics, property characteristics and microeconomic variables in order to derive risk classifications from various likelihoods of default. Furthermore, applies logit, probit and discriminant analyses to examine the significant factors for all three clusters. The empirical results show that the three clusters may be ranked as follows, in order of risk, from the least to greatest likelihood of default: the owner‐occupied housing buyer, invester group and young buyer clusters. In addition, the factor “borrower’s education level” has negative impact for all three clusters.

Details

Journal of Property Finance, vol. 8 no. 3
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/09588689710175033
ISSN: 0958-868X

Keywords

  • Mortgages
  • Multivariate analysis
  • Residential property management
  • Risk management
  • Taiwan

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Article
Publication date: 1 February 2004

PERSONALITY AND SITUATIONAL PATTERN DIFFERENCES ACROSS THREE WORK GROUPS: A COMPARATIVE EXAMINATION OF WORKER PERSONALITY AND ORGANIZATIONAL CLIMATE USING THREE PATTERN‐EXTRACTION ANALYSES

Michael J. Keeney, Andrea F. Snell, Steven J. Robison, Daniel V. Svyantek and Jennifer Bott

Measures of personality and organizational climate were subjected to three different analytical methods that extract patterns from data: Discriminant, Classification and…

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Abstract

Measures of personality and organizational climate were subjected to three different analytical methods that extract patterns from data: Discriminant, Classification and Regression Trees, and neural network classification analysis. Risk, openness, rewards, and neuroticism (rather than conscientiousness) emerged as key variables in differentiating among three similar work groups. Results of the analyses support the central hypothesis of ASA theory of greater variance in personality across compared to within organizations and an interactionist paradigm between person and environment. Implications for ASA theory and for personnel selection are discussed.

Details

Organizational Analysis, vol. 12 no. 2
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/eb028992
ISSN: 1551-7470

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Article
Publication date: 16 November 2020

Exploring the underlying relationship among risks in BOT transportation projects in developing countries: the case of Vietnam

Phuong Thi Le, Nicholas Chileshe, Konstantinos Kirytopoulos and Raufdeen Rameezdeen

Despite the fact that extensive studies on public-private partnerships have focused on risk identification and classification, research still lacks concentration on…

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Abstract

Purpose

Despite the fact that extensive studies on public-private partnerships have focused on risk identification and classification, research still lacks concentration on studying the latent structure of risks in build operate transfer (BOT) transportation projects, especially in developing countries. The research was carried out in Vietnam and this paper aims to explore the underlying relationships among risks in the context of BOT transportation projects.

Design/methodology/approach

A questionnaire survey was conducted to investigate the perception of stakeholders regarding the probability of occurrence and the severity of the impact of risks related to BOT transportation projects. Factor analysis was performed based on a total of 40 risks.

Findings

Seven risk groups were formed as a result of factor analysis, namely, “projects’ viability and political-regulatory risks”, “macroeconomic risks”, “projects’ feasibility study and market risks”, “financial risks”, “organization/coordination and force majeure risks”, “tolling, contractual, approvals risks” and “media and land expropriation risks”.

Originality/value

The research contributes to the current body of knowledge by providing deep insight into the structure of risks in BOT transportation projects in Vietnam through exploring the underlying relationships among risks, to form a latent risk structure from practical viewpoints. The findings are beneficial for involved stakeholders and policymakers to set up and propose suitable management strategies and related policies.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JFMPC-12-2019-0091
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

  • Risk mangement
  • Construction/project management
  • Public-private partnership (PPP)
  • Risks
  • Build operate transfer (BOT)
  • Factor analysis
  • Risk structure

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Article
Publication date: 2 November 2012

Supply chain risk management: present and future scope

Abhijeet Ghadge, Samir Dani and Roy Kalawsky

This paper examines supply chain risk management (SCRM) from a holistic systems thinking perspective by considering the different typologies that have evolved as a result…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper examines supply chain risk management (SCRM) from a holistic systems thinking perspective by considering the different typologies that have evolved as a result of earlier research. The purpose of this paper is to identify important strategic changes in the field and to outline future requirements and research opportunities in SCRM.

Design/methodology/approach

The systematic literature review (SLR) methodology employed by this research was used to evaluate and categorise a literature survey of quality articles published over a period of ten years (2000‐2010). Additionally, the findings from the SLR have been strengthened through cross validation against results obtained from an associated text mining activity.

Findings

The SLR methodology has provided a rich, unbiased and holistic picture of the advances in the field of SCRM. Consequently, important new research areas have been identified based on a multi‐perspective descriptive and thematic data analysis. In addition, the analysis, based on evolved typologies, indicates a growth of SCRM from a nascent to a fairly established activity over the past decade.

Practical implications

The systematic approach undertaken for the literature review will provide future researchers and managers with an insightful understanding of the scope of the SCRM field. Also, the literature review provides important clues on new research directions for SCRM through identification of gaps in current knowledge.

Originality/value

The holistic approach to SCRM was found to be an important missing link in earlier literature surveys. The outcome of the SLR reported in this paper has provided critical insights into the present and future scope of the SCRM field. The identified research insights, gaps and future directions will encourage new research techniques, with a view to managing the risks in the globalized supply chain environment.

Details

The International Journal of Logistics Management, vol. 23 no. 3
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/09574091211289200
ISSN: 0957-4093

Keywords

  • Supply chain management
  • Risk management
  • Supply chain risk management
  • Systematic literature review
  • Text mining

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Article
Publication date: 1 May 2004

Selection and application of risk management tools and techniques for build‐operate‐transfer projects

Prasanta K. Dey and Stephen O. Ogunlana

Construction projects are risky. However, the characteristics of the risk highly depend on the type of procurement being adopted for managing the project. A…

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Abstract

Construction projects are risky. However, the characteristics of the risk highly depend on the type of procurement being adopted for managing the project. A build‐operate‐transfer (BOT) project is recognized as one of the most risky project schemes. There are instances of project failure where a BOT scheme was employed. Ineffective rts are increasingly being managed using various risk management tools and techniques. However, application of those tools depends on the nature of the project, organization's policy, project management strategy, risk attitude of the project team members, and availability of the resources. Understanding of the contents and contexts of BOT projects, together with a thorough understanding of risk management tools and techniques, helps select processes of risk management for effective project implementation in a BOT scheme. This paper studies application of risk management tools and techniques in BOT projects through reviews of relevant literatures and develops a model for selecting risk management process for BOT projects. The application to BOT projects is considered from the viewpoints of the major project participants. Discussion is also made with regard to political risks. This study would contribute to the establishment of a framework for systematic risk management in BOT projects.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 104 no. 4
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/02635570410530748
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

  • Risk analysis
  • Risk management
  • Selection

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Article
Publication date: 3 December 2020

Developing an information classification method

Erik Bergström, Fredrik Karlsson and Rose-Mharie Åhlfeldt

The purpose of this paper is to develop a method for information classification. The proposed method draws on established standards, such as the ISO/IEC 27002 and…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop a method for information classification. The proposed method draws on established standards, such as the ISO/IEC 27002 and information classification practices. The long-term goal of the method is to decrease the subjective judgement in the implementation of information classification in organisations, which can lead to information security breaches because the information is under- or over-classified.

Design/methodology/approach

The results are based on a design science research approach, implemented as five iterations spanning the years 2013 to 2019.

Findings

The paper presents a method for information classification and the design principles underpinning the method. The empirical demonstration shows that senior and novice information security managers perceive the method as a useful tool for classifying information assets in an organisation.

Research limitations/implications

Existing research has, to a limited extent, provided extensive advice on how to approach information classification in organisations systematically. The method presented in this paper can act as a starting point for further research in this area, aiming at decreasing subjectivity in the information classification process. Additional research is needed to fully validate the proposed method for information classification and its potential to reduce the subjective judgement.

Practical implications

The research contributes to practice by offering a method for information classification. It provides a hands-on-tool for how to implement an information classification process. Besides, this research proves that it is possible to devise a method to support information classification. This is important, because, even if an organisation chooses not to adopt the proposed method, the very fact that this method has proved useful should encourage any similar endeavour.

Originality/value

The proposed method offers a detailed and well-elaborated tool for information classification. The method is generic and adaptable, depending on organisational needs.

Details

Information & Computer Security, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/ICS-07-2020-0110
ISSN: 2056-4961

Keywords

  • Information security management
  • Information classification
  • Information classification method
  • Information security management systems

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Article
Publication date: 1 August 2003

Risk management practices of leading UK cost consultants

Gerard D. Wood and Robert C.T. Ellis

Risk management (RM) is now widely accepted as an important tool in the management of projects. Through a series of semi‐structured interviews with RM facilitators…

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Abstract

Risk management (RM) is now widely accepted as an important tool in the management of projects. Through a series of semi‐structured interviews with RM facilitators, current practice is explored. The findings provide a number of soft benchmarks. Interest in RM comes largely from educated clients and is regularly adopted as an integrated front‐end service. Ongoing RM studies throughout the project life cycle are limited largely to the public sector and utilities. The use of RM workshops and the production of risk registers are commonplace. The use of Monte Carlo simulation through specialist software is widespread as a means of obtaining a greater degree of confidence in project budgets. There is scepticism regarding the usefulness of complex risk analysis techniques and a predisposition to rely on judgement based on experience. The use of historical data is limited. Evaluation of the service is informal and there is a relative lack of training and skills development underpinning RM provision.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 10 no. 4
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/09699980310489960
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

  • Risk management
  • Probability calculations
  • Estimation
  • Buildings
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Project management

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Book part
Publication date: 10 February 2020

An Empirical Analysis on Students’ Cheating Behavior and Personality Traits in the Context of Fraud Triangle Factors

Ali Altug Bicer

The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between personality traits and students’ cheating behavior using the five-factor personality model and the fraud…

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Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between personality traits and students’ cheating behavior using the five-factor personality model and the fraud triangle factors. This chapter develops an evidential study that has the goal to determine the relationship between the students’ cheating behavior and personality traits by using fraud triangle factors. In this context, 251 surveys have been conducted on students of a foundation university located in Istanbul. As means of data collection, NEO – Five Factor Inventory and Academic Fraud Risk Factors have been used. Data have been analyzed by regression tree analysis. Risk and classification tables have been created before starting the study with a decision tree in which classification and regression trees algorithms were implemented. The results reveal that rationalization behind the cheating is the most important reason for students to copy and people who believed that they were extremely appropriate to copy were responsible ones when analyzed in terms of their personality traits. The results of this study contribute to the literature by discovering the characteristics of those who admit academic dishonesty and underlie the factors or predispositions for engaging in this behavior. For sure, three factors of the fraud triangle may have different levels of significance in this study; in addition, pressure is not associated with the cheating behavior.

Details

Contemporary Issues in Audit Management and Forensic Accounting
Type: Book
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/S1569-375920200000102004
ISBN: 978-1-83867-636-0

Keywords

  • Fraud triangle
  • academic cheating
  • academic dishonesty
  • regression tree
  • personality traits
  • M49
  • C14
  • C35

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Article
Publication date: 7 March 2020

Investigating the significance of risks in BOT transportation projects in Vietnam

Phuong Thi Le, Nicholas Chileshe, Konstantinos Kirytopoulos and Raufdeen Rameezdeen

The Built Operate Transfer (BOT) model has been increasingly used in transportation investments in Vietnam. However, there is still an inadequacy of risk management…

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Abstract

Purpose

The Built Operate Transfer (BOT) model has been increasingly used in transportation investments in Vietnam. However, there is still an inadequacy of risk management applications in these projects and lack of research in this area. The study aims to improve the success of projects implemented through the BOT model in Vietnam.

Design/methodology/approach

The study followed a sequential design including interviews and a questionnaire survey to investigate the perception of stakeholders from public and private sector regarding the probability of occurrence and the severity of impact of risks in BOT transportation projects in Vietnam. Quantitative data from the survey was subjected to descriptive and inferential statistics to explore the priority of risks as well as the differences in the perception between the public and private sectors.

Findings

The results showed that the top five most significant risks in BOT transportation projects in Vietnam are: (1) problems with land acquisition and compensation, (2) inappropriate location of toll booths, (3) public resistance to pay, (4) high toll rate and (5) lack of cash flow. With the exception of “lack of cash flow,” there were no statistically significant differences in the rankings of individual risks between the public and private sector. In addition, there is a significant positive correlation in the overall rankings of all risks for both sectors.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the body of knowledge by exploring the probability of occurrence and the severity of the impact of risks in BOT transportation projects in a developing country like Vietnam which has not been extensively explored yet. Second, it provides an insight into the perception of stakeholders from the public and private sector regarding the level of risks which is very useful for potential stakeholders in making decisions when they intend to participate in such partnerships. Third, it enables the Vietnamese government to establish suitable policies related to such projects. These contributions are very important in improving risk management in PPPs in developing countries.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 27 no. 6
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-08-2019-0439
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

  • Public private partnership (PPP)
  • Built Operate Transfer (BOT)
  • Risk
  • Analysis
  • Assessment
  • Priority
  • Ranking transportation
  • Vietnam

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