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The purpose of this paper is to look at the lessons learnt from the previous real estate cycles based on a sample of investors, occupiers and academics and seek to understand the practical challenges the industry faces in the current cycle.

The paper summarises the results of qualitative research and interviews conducted and analysed by BNP Paribas Real Estate and Ipsos MORI.

The paper considers the crisis of 2008, its impact on performance, lessons learnt by the industry as a result and the future challenges. Whilst the industry felt well prepared to withstand future uncertainty and change, there was concern that subsequent generations of industry professionals will not be well equipped to deal with the pace and magnitude of change.

This is a practical study that seeks to place a greater emphasis on the drivers of market sentiment rather than focussing on quantitative forecasts.

There is much attention given to quantitative property market forecasts; however, there seems to be little appreciation of the need to evolve our process in today’s fast paced, structurally changing market which will behave differently to how it has in the past. Economic forecasts have received much criticism recently and these provide the basis for property market forecasts. The consideration of sentiment and the qualitative aspect of the future drivers of performance have never been so critical.

The article analyzes the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on commercial real estate prices, with a particular focus on European markets.

The authors start by highlighting caveats to bear in mind when referring to direct real estate indices. The authors then analyze the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the pandemic, emphasizing differences across property types. For that purpose, the authors use data for both direct and listed real estate and further discuss changes in the main factors affecting commercial real estate pricing. The article then turns to discussing the likely trajectory of commercial real estate prices in the future.

The authors report that retail and hospitality properties and to a lesser extent office buildings have been affected the most by COVID-19, while the residential and industrial sectors have been less affected by the crisis. The authors maintain that the future trajectory of prices will vary across sectors and that the type and location of assets will become increasingly important in their valuation.

This paper provides for a better understanding of the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The article aims to analyze the behavior of commercial real estate prices in Europe, with a focus on the post-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic period. The authors use national and city-level data for the various commercial real estate sectors in ten countries, as well as listed real estate data, to assess any differences across property type and space.

The authors analyze the behavior of commercial real estate prices after the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing differences across property types. For that purpose, the authors use national and city-level direct real estate data for the ten largest countries in terms of market capitalization, as well as listed real estate data. The article then turns to discussing the likely trajectory of commercial real estate prices in the future.

The recent rise in interest rates and geopolitical instability have affected prices differently across sectors. Industrial properties benefited from the pandemic, although prices declined significantly in 2022. Residential properties continued their upward price trend and have been the best-performing property type during the last two decades. Retail real estate continued its downward price trajectory. Thus far, office markets do not appear to be significantly affected by structural changes in the sector. The data for listed real estate markets in Europe suggest that markets bottomed out in early 2023.

This paper provides for a better understanding of the behavior of commercial real estate prices in Europe since the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors assess whether the effects found during the COVID-19 crisis were temporary or long-lasting. Also, many economic and political uncertainties have emerged since the beginning of the Ukraine war in February 2022, and it is important to analyze the effects of such uncertainties on commercial real estate prices.

Over a long period, even low inflation has an impact on portfolio value and households’ purchasing power. In such a context, inflation hedging should remain an important issue for investors. In particular, long-term investors, who are concerned with the protection of their wealth, seek to hold effective hedging assets. This study aims to demonstrate that residential assets in “Grand Paris” are a hedge against inflation and particularly against its unexpected component.

In this study, the physical residential markets in 127 communes in Paris and the Parisian first-ring suburbs are considered as potential asset classes. We simplified the analysis by clustering the 127 communes into five homogenous groups using ascending hierarchical classification (AHC). Then, we test the hedging ability of these groups within a mixed asset portfolios using both correlation and regression analysis.

This paper presents an analysis of the “Grand Paris” housing market and its inflation hedging ability with comparison to other financial asset classes. Results show that the five housing groups act as a highly positive hedge against unexpected inflation. Furthermore, cash and bonds seem to provide, respectively, a partial and an over hedge against unexpected inflation. Stocks act as a perverse hedge against unexpected inflation and provide no significant hedge against expected inflation. Also, indirect listed real estate demonstrates little correlation with inflation, which makes us reject its hedging ability contrary to physical residential real estate.

The inflation topic: although several researches exist that question the hedging property of real estate, very few concentrate on physical residential assets and to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the only one that targets the “Grand Paris” area. Residential assets of the “Grand Paris” communes are confirmed to be a hedge against inflation and particularly against its unexpected component thanks to its capital appreciation rather than income one. Also, we show that the listed real estate in France (Sociétés d’Investissement Immobilier Cotée) does not provide the same hedging properties contrary to the US real estate investment trusts (REITs) who demonstrate this ability. Listed real estate could thus not be used interchangeably with housing to protect from inflation in the French market.

Protection of investors against inflation and in particular in the face of its return to France in 2022. Reassuring promoters and investors of the interest of residential investment projects in “Greater Paris” and of the potential that this holds.

Inflation takes a chunk out of the purchasing power of money and thereby erodes the real value of people’s finance. Investors and households who seek protection from inflation erosion should invest in direct housing, and in particular within areas that are experiencing an effective metropolization process.

The originality of the study is precisely relative to the geographical area studied. The latter has experienced favorable economic conditions for several years and offers interesting fundamentals to explore and exploit in investment strategies that prove capable of protecting against imminent inflation. The database is specific to this project and has been built through the compilation of several sources and with the support of BNP Paribas Real Estate.

The purpose of this study is to highlight the determinants of market rents and to build a hedonic market rent index for each urban area and rental sector in France for the period 1970–2013. The authors also analyse the market rent dynamics over this period, with a special attention to the turning points in the French housing policy.

For this purpose, the authors implement a hedonic model, called stratified time dummy variable, using the Box–Cox transformation as a functional form.

The contribution of this study to the housing research is threefold: First, the study improves our understanding of the French’s rental submarket specificities and their valuation. It sheds new light on the determinants of rents. Second, this study builds a hedonic market rent index over the period 1970–2013 for each geographical and sectoral segment (Paris urban area, urban areas of more and less than 100,000 inhabitants and private and public rental sectors). Third, this study explains rent dynamics focusing on the turning points in the French housing policy.

Finally, the authors provide the first long-term market rent index in France by submarket (geographical and sectoral). In the case of the French market, no long-term market rent exists. The only long series available is an indexed rent.

This paper aims to show that the accuracy of real estate portfolio valuations and of real estate risk management can be improved through the simultaneous use of Monte Carlo simulations and options theory.

The authors' method considers the options embedded in Continental European lease contracts drawn up with tenants who may move before the end of the contract. The authors combine Monte Carlo simulations for both market prices and rental values with an optional model that takes into account a rational tenant's behaviour. They analyze how the options significantly affect the owner's income.

The authors' main findings are that simulated cash flows which take account of such options are more reliable that those usually computed by the traditional method of discounted cash flow.

Some limitations are inherent to the authors' model: these include the assumption of the rationality of tenant's decisions and the difficulty of calibrating the model given the lack of data in many markets.

The main contribution of the paper is both by accounting for market risk (Monte Carlo simulations for the prices and market rental values) and for accounting for the idiosyncratic risk (the leasing risk).

The paper addresses the practical problems which emerge when attempting to apply longitudinal approaches to the assessment of property depreciation using valuation‐based data. These problems relate to inconsistent valuation regimes and the difficulties in finding appropriate benchmarks.

The paper adopts a case study of seven major office locations around Europe and attempts to determine ten‐year rental value depreciation rates based on a longitudinal approach using IPD, CBRE and BNP Paribas datasets.

The depreciation rates range from a 5 per cent PA depreciation rate in Frankfurt to a 2 per cent appreciation rate in Stockholm. The results are discussed in the context of the difficulties in applying this method with inconsistent data.

The paper has methodological implications for measuring property investment depreciation and provides an example of the problems in adopting theoretically sound approaches with inconsistent information.

Valuations play an important role in performance measurement and cross border investment decision making and, therefore, knowledge of inconsistency of valuation practice aids decision making and informs any application of valuation‐based data in the attainment of depreciation rates.

The paper provides new insights into the use of property market valuation data in a cross‐border context, insights that previously had been anecdotal and unproven in nature.

The aim of this study is to shed light on the relative importance of money supply and exchange rates variations on office markets prices dynamics.

Using a parsimonious real estate asset pricing model, the authors focus on the two biggest European office markets; namely the United Kingdom and Germany. The authors use a panel approach based on a robust econometric methodology (GMM with correction errors-in-variables). The authors take into account the variations of exchange rates and money supplies for the most important currencies.

The results highlight the impact of money supplies and exchange rates on office prices after the Global Financial Crisis. The authors report that the monetary policies in the UK and in Germany (Euro zone) have had significant influences in the real estate sector after the Global Financial Crisis. However, the authors identified significant differences between British and German office markets for the 2009–2019 period regarding the impact of money supply and exchange rates variations on the office prices dynamics.

The results highlight the impact of money supplies and exchange rates on office prices after the Global Financial Crisis. The detailed and exclusive database (composed of the main office markets in the United Kingdom and in Germany) allows the authors to identify significant differences and opportunities for investors.

The authors use a parsimonious model and apply a panel approach based on a robust econometric methodology to analyse the impact of exchange rates and money supply variations on the office prices dynamics. The detailed and exclusive database (composed of the main office markets in the United Kingdom and in Germany) allows the authors to identify significant differences for investors.

ESG (Environment, Social, Governance) has taken on increased importance in recent years for all stakeholders, with the S dimension now taking on a stronger focus in the real estate space. This paper proposes a new metric to be used in the S space to assess improvements in aspects such as gender equality and cultural diversity in real estate. It adds to the S metrics currently available to see the more effective delivery of the S dimension into real estate investment decision-making.

A new S metric in ESG is proposed and validated. Using this metric, examples regarding gender equality and cultural diversity are assessed among leading real estate players in Australia. This S metric is assessed over a number of time periods to demonstrate the improvements in gender equality and cultural diversity in these major real estate players.

This new S metric is seen to be highly effective and robust in capturing the changes in various aspects of the S dimension in ESG in the real estate space today; particularly concerning gender equality and cultural diversity. It is clearly able to demonstrate the significant changes in increased participation of women at the more senior leadership levels by leading players in the real estate space.

With ESG becoming a critical issue in the real estate sector, issues involved in the S space will take on increased significance going forward. This is critical, as the elements of the S dimension such as gender equality and cultural diversity are important aspects for an effectively functioning real estate industry. The S metric developed in this paper can be used for benchmarking purposes over time, as well as between real estate players, between sub-sections within a real estate organisation, and comparing against other industry sectors. It is also relevant in all organisations, and is not just limited to the real estate sector. Additional metrics in the S space are an important development to further empirically assess the effective delivery of the S dimension of ESG in the real estate sector and more broadly.

This paper specifically proposes this new S metric in ESG in the real estate industry. This is a key issue for the real estate industry going forward at all levels, as it will facilitate a more diverse real estate industry and more effective real estate investment decision-making. This S metric is applicable in all organisational sectors where the S dimension of ESG is important.

Environment, social, governance (ESG) has taken on increased importance in real estate investment in recent years, with benchmarking ESG being critically important for more informed real estate investment decision-making. Using 60 stakeholder interviews with senior real estate executives, this paper examines the strategic issues regarding benchmarking ESG in real estate investment; specifically, identifying areas going forward where ESG benchmarks need to be improved. This includes the issues of granularity, climate resilience and climate risk, as well as an increased focus on outcomes and performance, and using best practice procedures in delivering ESG in real estate investment.

In total, 60 stakeholder interviews were conducted with key real estate players globally to assess the use of ESG benchmarking in real estate investment at various levels (asset/fund-level, listed real estate, delivery, reporting and internal benchmarking), across regions and across different types of real estate investment players (real estate fund manager, real estate investment trust (REIT), institutional investor and real estate advisor). This enabled key strategic insights to be identified for improved ESG benchmarking practices in real estate investment going forward.

There was clear evidence of the need for improved benchmarks for ESG in real estate investment. More focus was needed on performance, outcomes and impacts, with a stronger focus on granularity around the issues of climate resilience and climate risk. Improvements in Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark (GRESB), as well as increased attention to Task Force for Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) were seen as important initiatives. Clear differences were also seen in the use of these ESG benchmarks on a regional basis; with Australia and Europe seen as the world leaders. These strategic stakeholder insights regarding ESG saw the development of best practice guidelines for the more effective delivery of ESG benchmarks for more informed real estate investment decision-making, as well as a series of recommendations for improving ESG benchmarking in real estate investment.

ESG benchmarking is a critical area of real estate investment decision-making today. By utilising stakeholder interviews, the strategic insights from key players in the real estate investment space are identified. In particular, this paper identifies how the current ESG benchmarks used in real estate investment need to be improved for a more critical assessment of climate resilience and climate risk issues at a more granular level. This enables the identification and delivery of more effective ESG best practice procedures and recommendations for improving ESG benchmarking in real estate investment going forward. These issues have clear impacts on ongoing capital raisings by investors, where benchmarking ESG is an increasingly important factor for real estate investors, tenants and real estate asset managers.

Based on the stakeholder interview responses, this paper has identified key areas for improvement in the current benchmarks for ESG in real estate investment. It is anticipated that an increased focus on technology and the availability of more granular data, coupled with user demand, will see more focus on assessing performance, outcomes and impacts at a real estate asset-specific level and produce a fuller range of ESG metrics, more focused on climate resilience and climate risk. This will see a more effective range of ESG benchmarks for more informed real estate investment decision-making.