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All technologies have intended and unintended consequences, both favorable and unfavorable. Because the risks from implementing a technology may outweigh its rewards, the precautionary principle, illustrated by the maxim “better safe than sorry”, often is applied. Yet, the precautionary principle itself may have unintended consequences. This paper aims to discuss the precautionary principle and unintended consequences and present a model for analyzing the resulting implications.

A deficiency in applying the precautionary principle often is forgoing a quantitative analysis. In this paper, the authors apply decision analysis and decision analytic methodologies. Specifically, they present a decision model which can be used when analyzing the consequences of using the precautionary principle. The methodology incorporates decision-makers’ attitude in the determination of the preferred decision policy. The authors illustrate the methodology by determining a decision policy regarding the application of the precautionary principle in a situation with potential unintended consequences.

The findings indicate that a generic decision model structure for assessing the use of the precautionary principle, as illustrated in a decision tree, can be used when implementing a new technology. The results of the analysis indicate that a decision-maker’s attitude plays an important role in determining a preferred decision policy for this dynamic decision situation.

This research breaks new ground by proposing a decision analytic methodology where quantitative analysis can be applied to address problems where technologies are implemented with unintended consequences and where the precautionary principle is applied.

This study aims to examine the effects of ethnic and social identities on negotiation decision making in the context of the Cyprus conflict.

The author conducts a theory‐driven case study of the 1959 Zurich‐London agreements on Cyprus, analyzing the positions of Turkey, Greece, Britain, and the Turkish and Greek Cypriot communities during the negotiation process. The analytical method is the applied decision analysis procedure.

The analysis of the Zurich‐London negotiations over Cyprus suggests that even in the presence of adversarial ethnic ties, decision makers who have a shared (and salient) social identity are more likely to employ collective‐serving decision strategies and seek even‐handed solutions that will not jeopardize their mutual interests. Here, Turkey and Greece – both NATO members – decided to settle on a commonly agreed negotiation outcome despite their ethnicity‐driven, clashing interests over Cyprus. In contrast, decision makers with severe ethnic fragmentation with no shared social identity (as with the Turkish and Greek Cypriot communities) are more prone to employ self‐serving decision strategies and seek zero‐sum negotiation outcomes that will exclusively benefit them.

Regarding the applied decision analysis procedure employed in this study, it is necessary to acknowledge the subjective nature of the construction of the decision matrices with respective values/ratings, even though such procedure is based on empirical and situational evidence.

The study introduces a novel theoretical and analytical framework to the literature on negotiation decision making in identity‐based conflicts by combining the social contextualist perspective with the polyheuristic decision model and using applied decision analysis. By anchoring the analysis in the historical context of the Cyprus conflict, the study also contributes to the relatively underdeveloped literature on conflict management in the Middle East.

Because that the crime in a wide way impacts the life of the people in the big metropolis, researchers have treated the question from several angles. The purpose of the paper, under the umbrella of operational research, is to develop a model of the ordering of police strategies, in the fight against crime in general, according to a certain criminal demand.

For the construction of the impact matrix of the strategies under the reduction of crime rates, considering a portfolio of crimes, a questionnaire applied to specialists was used. In a second moment, defined the criteria and strategies to be ordered, the multicriteria ELECTRE IV method was used, which with the help of the J-Electre software emulated the systematized data in the impact matrix and produced the final ordering of the most efficient strategies, in the fight against crime, in the perception of decision-makers.

As a result, the research revealed that policing strategies directed at solving specific crimes are the most effective in the perception of decision-makers after the emulation of data with the ELECTRE IV method.

As research implications, it can be inferred that the use of multicriteria methods in the modeling of problems in the area of public security can contribute to rationalization of the use of the means available in the fight against crime in large cities. The research showed that it is possible to use customized policing strategies to a certain reality.

The method presented in this research is directly related to the major strategies: problem-oriented policing and hot spot policing. This method allows public safety managers to consider the possibility of combining different law enforcement strategies in each context. In this sense, the use of the multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) (ELECTRE IV) method allows the evaluation of a large set of alternatives according to a set of established criteria, speeding up the process and reducing subjectivity, allowing the manager to analyze several scenarios with greater clarity and impartiality and choosing an alternative that best solves the proposed problem. The expected result is the rationalization of the available means applied in the search for the reduction of crime rates.

The customization of policing strategies, according to criminal demands, implies the efficient way to reduce criminal charges. Reducing criminal rates enables the development of the local economy, tourism and the quality of life of people by exercising their freedom to the full.

The originality lies in filling a gap in the literature with the elaboration of the impact matrix of policing strategies in reducing criminal indices, and in their associated use in ordering strategies through a multicriteria method.

The purpose of this paper is to present a hybrid modelling that combines concepts and techniques for scenario building together with a Multi-criteria Decision Aid (MCDA) outranking approach. The paper presents a case to illustrate the proposed methodology.

The research method is a qualitative and quantitative mixture and it is presented as a study case. Bibliographic research is used to construct the theoretical framework. There are a number of studies that develop a sensibility analysis in MCDA modelling; however, none of them explore the robustness of the MCDA solution with use of scenarios variation.

The methodology allows the criteria that must be taken into account, according to the decision makers’ values and preferences. It is interesting to note that, depending on the scenario, different weights were applied for each criterion, and the performances of alternatives under each criterion has changed as well.

This need arises in decision problems that are susceptible to the influence of scenario variation.

This proposal was applied to a real case that has taken into account six alternatives, with a prospective analysis of three scenarios, evaluated by four criteria. The authors use prospective scenarios to choose the criterion weights and alternatives evaluation.

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the efficacy of decision analysis in determining the most efficient strategy for installing cable television in the residence halls of Bucknell University.

The decision analysis model compared five distinct approaches for achieving and maintaining a successful delivery of cable television service to students enrolled in this private, residential institution. For each alternative, the model incorporated installation costs, likelihood of installation failure, installation failure costs, likelihood of obsolescence and obsolescence-related costs. In addition to considering the trade-offs between cost, timing and riskiness of the various alternatives, a thorough set of sensitivity analyses was performed to gain insight into the parameters that most strongly influence this decision-making process.

The quantitative model advocated the adoption of the university’s data network as the mode for cable delivery. Sensitivity analysis further supported this notion.

The analysis of this problem incorporated the knowledge and judgments of senior administrators and staff members, thus demonstrating the critical contributions offered by subject-matter experts in advising, informing and launching successful decision analysis projects. Incorporating stakeholder viewpoints enhances model understanding and, eventually, model implementation. Decision analysis represents a powerful approach in communicating uncertainties and advising on the benefits of particular alternatives.

To the best of the researchers’ knowledge, this paper represents an initial attempt to investigate cable delivery options within a decision analysis framework.

The purpose of this study is modelling of a problem of policing strategy order using a multicriteria method.

For the construction of the impact matrix strategies under the reduction of crime rates, considering a portfolio of crimes, a questionnaire applied to specialists was used. In a second moment, defined the criteria and strategies to be ordered, the multicriteria PROMETHEE II method was used, which with the help of the Visual PROMETHEE software, emulated the systematised data in the impact matrix and produced the final ordering of the most efficient strategies, in the fight against crime, in the perception of decision makers.

As a result, this research revealed that radio patrol, when used in a non-randomised manner, is the most effective policing strategy in reducing the 18 criminal demands studied in the perception of decision makers after data emulation with the PROMETHEE II method.

As research implications, it can be inferred that the use of multicriteria methods in the modelling of problems in public security area can contribute to the rationalisation of use of the available means in the fight against crime in large cities. This research showed that it is possible to use customised policing strategies to absolute reality.

The practical impact of this research lies in optimising the resources available to law enforcement agencies in the fight against crime in general.

It can be inferred that by choosing appropriate strategies to combat local crime, there is a direct implication in optimising the resources that the government makes available to police agencies. This optimisation allows pressure reduction under the public budget for more features. The model for choosing more effective strategies contributes to local crimes decrease, increasing the sense of the population security.

The originality lies in filling a gap in the literature with the elaboration of the impact matrix of policing strategies in reducing criminal indices and in their associated use in ordering strategies through a multicriteria method. This study contributed to applied police intelligence.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate, through a comparative analysis, the applicability of lean manufacturing practices, such as value stream mapping (VSM), for productivity improvement in recycling centres (RCs) aided by multi-criteria decision analysis.

The study is carried out in five RCs that sort the municipal solid waste of Porto Alegre, one of the main cities in Brazil. Since all of the centres present their labour composed by poor communities’ members, cultural and social characteristics may represent an incremental challenge for lean implementation. Further, these centres are organised in cooperatives, in which decisions are taken through a participatory way and all their members are entitled to vote, undermining and retarding the decision-making process.

The integration of a multi-criteria decision-making tool to the lean practices enables the prioritisation of improvements, complementing the final stage of VSM. In particular, this contribution becomes especially important in cooperatives managed by community, where decisions are often complex and time-consuming. Finally, despite the increasing pressure for better performance of RCs, the existent mindset is still far from the private sector, where lean practices were conceived. Further, the findings suggest that, despite processes similarities, it is not feasible to declare the existence of a one-best practice to such scenario.

In theoretical terms, the authors demonstrate through a multi-case study the adequacy of analytic hierarchy process as a decision analysis tool complementary to the VSM, enabling a broader perspective about this subject. Concerning the practical contribution, the comprehension of the adaptation needs for lean practices implementation within the production context of solid waste RCs provides a framework with guidelines for this sector, when incorporating lean activities. Lean practitioners and eventual municipal authorities involved in improving productivity of community-managed RCs might benefit from this framework, since they will be able to emphasise the development of recommended and already tested lean practices that tend to improve their operational performance.

The purpose of this paper is to observe how to invest in upper-middle income countries via an innovation perspective following global innovation index (GII) by multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) approach, once MCDA was designed to support subjective decisions.

Pearson’s correlation was the milestone for understanding innovation indicators at upper-middle income countries profiles. In a MCDA first step, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to obtain the criteria weight. In this step, the judgments or evaluations inputted in AHP were collected from a sample composed by five experts in GII. After getting the criteria weights compose to GII, Borda and Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMÉTHÉE) methods were applied to obtain an MCDA-based GII. The inputs for this second step were: the weights come from AHP output; and the countries performance came from GII data.

As a result, it was found out the upper-middle countries’ rank to invest and groups with countries acting like “hubs” or “bridges” for economic sectors in near countries; when they are grouped according to their maximum and minimum scores profiles, observing not only a particular region but also similar profiles at diverse world areas.

Pearson-AHP-PROMÉTHÉE works as a supportive decision tool for several and complex investment perspectives from criteria and alternatives analysis regarding innovation indicators for upper-middle income countries. This combination also demonstrates grouping possibilities, aligning profiles and not only ranking countries for investment and eliminating others but also grouping countries with similar profiles via innovation indicators MCDA combined application.

Over the past twenty years, the management of F. Hoffman‐La Roche, a Swiss multinational pharmaceutical and chemical producer, has developed a comprehensive process for the analysis of important investment decisions. This process has evolved gradually and naturally, according to management needs and readiness. Today it embodies a full range of decision and risk analysis procedures, which allow rapid but thorough quantitative evaluations of important investment, business development and strategy decisions. The results of this analytical process are routinely presented to top management. In addition, the quantitative evaluation is actively sought out by line managers and functional experts throughout the company.

Making appropriate decisions concerning the ongoing management of existing built facilities is an important activity for property and facilities managers. Such decisions comprise multiple criteria, and the relative importance of these criteria typically reflects the implicit preferences or biases of the decision maker(s). This paper seeks to apply a new property management 3D decision model known as iconCUR to investigate the impact of criterion weights on the decision to intervene.

A retrospective case study of a real project in Sydney (Australia) that underwent adaptive reuse transformation in 2008 is used to test the sensitivity of implied decision‐maker preferences in practice.

It is found that significant change to individual criterion weights relating to aspects of building condition, space utilization and triple bottom line reward has minimal influence on the derived spatial coordinates that underpin the 3D decision model and hence the recommended intervention strategy in the particular case studied.

It is further suggested that changes in criterion weights over time as expectations and situations may dictate can be accommodated without undermining the integrity of the decision‐making process.

The deployment of this type of approach, at least, documents the decision‐making process involved in important property management strategies and exposes the frequently implicit preferences of decision makers. These preferences are shown not to be as critical as might have been suspected. This may add further confidence to the use of MCDA in facilities management decisions.