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Article
Publication date: 9 April 2018

Ali Asghar Pourezzat, Mohammad Hoseini Moghadam, Maryam Sani Ejlal and Ghazaleh Taheriattar

Through an examination of macro-historical studies on the governance of Iran, the purpose of this study is to identify the most significant and important events and trends in the…

Abstract

Purpose

Through an examination of macro-historical studies on the governance of Iran, the purpose of this study is to identify the most significant and important events and trends in the rise and fall of Iranian governments and introduce alternative futures in a range of possible, plausible and preferable forms of future governance. To carry out a foresight study of alternative futures of Iranian governance, the authors used futures studies, based on the detection of the most critical driving forces, which are also the most important uncertainties. Futures studies as an interdisciplinary field of study help to identify the events and trends that affect political change and offer scenarios of four alternative futures for the governance of Iran: Smart and Stable Government, Authoritarian Development-oriented Government, Irrational Government and Irrational Breakable Government. The authors believe that Iran’s endeavors to promote democracy, taking the changing international trends into account, make a more trustworthy future for Iran both possible plausible.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on macro-history approach and by using “shared history”, future triangle and then scenario planning, the future of Governance in Iran has been analyzed.

Findings

Whenever the government has distanced itself from the public and has neglected the trend of international change, it has been faced with a period of collapse and annihilation. And whenever these two important factors are understood, the result is a trend of development and growth. Therefore, the most favored image of Iran’s future relies on the maintenance and promotion of public participation and on increasing attention to the sustainable realities of international relations.

Originality/value

The complexities of events and trends affecting the rise and fall of previous governments of Iran make it necessary to use an interdisciplinary approach to understand the events that have emerged or are emerging in its governance. In this study, from futures studies point of view, transformation of governance has been studied.

Details

foresight, vol. 20 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 September 2020

Armin Firoozpour, Ehsan Marzban and Ali Asghar Pourezzat

Thinking and deciding about the future of the city as a combination of complex and uncertain systems is extremely difficult. This complexity, uncertainty and difficulty will be…

Abstract

Purpose

Thinking and deciding about the future of the city as a combination of complex and uncertain systems is extremely difficult. This complexity, uncertainty and difficulty will be increased when our thoughts and decisions address the city’s long-term future. Considering these issues, the need for future thinking and alternate thinking in the process of urban management and planning becomes even more necessary. The purpose of this paper is to identify and explain the alternate futures of Tehran.

Design/methodology/approach

For this purpose, this study have tried to study alternate future images of Tehran in an archetypal form of “growth, collapse, disciplined society and transformed society” using “Dator’s Four Generic Alternate Futures” method.

Findings

These alternate futures, after identifying their key trends and drivers, have been narrated in the form of four scenarios called: “capital business center,” “crossing the fate of ray,” “Tehran family” and “Tehran investigators.” Increasing the authority and responsibility of the local governance, modification of Tehran urban management model and development of voluntary cooperation and democratic participation, are among the policy recommendations made on the basis of these images.

Originality/value

Achieving these images in parallel with identifying the most important challenges and opportunities in alternate futures will provide the basis for policy-making in Tehran’s future urban governance. It can be a creative model for developing future images for other cities.

Details

foresight, vol. 23 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 February 2010

Ali Asghar Pourezzat, Mostafa Nejati and Abdolazim Mollaee

The purpose of this paper is to provide a system based on the data flow diagram (DFD), which can be used to help urban policy makers reduce the consequences of natural disasters.

2186

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide a system based on the data flow diagram (DFD), which can be used to help urban policy makers reduce the consequences of natural disasters.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper considers the socio‐technical perspective of government information systems and management, and draws on the collection and analysis of several public reports, media papers, and expert opinions published in the aftermath of the earthquake in Bam, Iran in December 2003, as one of the most destructive urban disasters in Iran and worldwide.

Findings

Considering the rescue and disaster management activities after Bam earthquake, the paper examines and discusses how important a clear DFD‐based system for managing urban disasters is. Moreover, the DFD model is suggested as an expert system to better handle and manage operations and different organizations involved in the rescue process.

Research limitations/implications

The paper requires a practical pilot implementation of DFD‐based system.

Practical implications

The authors believe that the research outcomes and results can assist governments and public managers in preparing and developing a disaster management system in controlling the consequences of urban disasters such as earthquake.

Originality/value

This research reveals the importance and necessity of having a comprehensive and well‐planned system to be prepared for controlling and managing urban disasters and their consequences. Moreover, the results are based on the observations and interviews made in the city of Bam, right after the earthquake, so it provides an invaluable understanding about the specific conditions of the city after that deadly disaster.

Details

International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, vol. 1 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-5908

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 October 2011

Ali Asghar Pourezzat, Mostafa Nejati, Ghazaleh Taheri Attar and Seyed Mahdi Sharifmousavi

The purpose of this paper is to explore the economy of Persian Gulf countries following a post‐oil economy. This is accompanied with a futurology study and planning of certain

1272

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the economy of Persian Gulf countries following a post‐oil economy. This is accompanied with a futurology study and planning of certain scenarios that can be applied to these countries.

Design/methodology/approach

This study applies a futurology approach by investigating various scenarios to explore the Arab economy after oil. As such, a series of possible policies are proposed that can be undertaken by Arab countries depending on their public policy. Each of the suggested policies involves different scenarios that have been formed and analyzed using an era‐based cellular planning system.

Findings

The findings propose three main policies to be undertaken by Arab countries including: investing the oil income in miscellaneous economic baskets in order to minimize the vulnerability and maximize the profits; reducing the oil production in the coming years and transforming the one‐product oil economy to a value added petrochemical economy; and seeking new sources of income and wealth. In addition, findings emphasize the necessity for using renewable and lasting wealth resources and minimizing the dependency of countries on the oil economy.

Originality/value

The proposed scenarios in the study can act as strategic constructs in strengthening the scenario sets in the consecutive years and help develop other scenarios in the future. As such, this paper would be of interest to governmental advisors, strategic planners and policy‐makers involved in studies related to the Middle East.

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