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Scenario planning and futurology of the Persian Gulf post‐oil economy

Ali Asghar Pourezzat (Based at the Public Administration Department, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran)
Mostafa Nejati (Based at the School of Management, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Penang, Malaysia)
Ghazaleh Taheri Attar (Based at the Public Administration Department, Allame Tabatabaei University, Tehran, Iran)
Seyed Mahdi Sharifmousavi (Based at the Industrial Engineering Faculty, Tarbiat Modares University (TMU), Tehran, Iran)


ISSN: 1463-6689

Article publication date: 18 October 2011




The purpose of this paper is to explore the economy of Persian Gulf countries following a post‐oil economy. This is accompanied with a futurology study and planning of certain scenarios that can be applied to these countries.


This study applies a futurology approach by investigating various scenarios to explore the Arab economy after oil. As such, a series of possible policies are proposed that can be undertaken by Arab countries depending on their public policy. Each of the suggested policies involves different scenarios that have been formed and analyzed using an era‐based cellular planning system.


The findings propose three main policies to be undertaken by Arab countries including: investing the oil income in miscellaneous economic baskets in order to minimize the vulnerability and maximize the profits; reducing the oil production in the coming years and transforming the one‐product oil economy to a value added petrochemical economy; and seeking new sources of income and wealth. In addition, findings emphasize the necessity for using renewable and lasting wealth resources and minimizing the dependency of countries on the oil economy.


The proposed scenarios in the study can act as strategic constructs in strengthening the scenario sets in the consecutive years and help develop other scenarios in the future. As such, this paper would be of interest to governmental advisors, strategic planners and policy‐makers involved in studies related to the Middle East.



Asghar Pourezzat, A., Nejati, M., Taheri Attar, G. and Mahdi Sharifmousavi, S. (2011), "Scenario planning and futurology of the Persian Gulf post‐oil economy", Foresight, Vol. 13 No. 6, pp. 18-33.



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