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1 – 10 of 397Guglielmo Maria Caporale and Alex Plastun
This paper explores abnormal price changes in the FOREX by using both daily and intraday data on the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and EURJPY exchange rates over the period…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper explores abnormal price changes in the FOREX by using both daily and intraday data on the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and EURJPY exchange rates over the period 01.01.2008–31.12.2018.
Design/methodology/approach
It applies a dynamic trigger approach to detect abnormal price changes and then various statistical methods, including cumulative abnormal returns analysis, to test the following hypotheses: the intraday behaviour of hourly returns on overreaction days is different from that on normal days (H1), there are detectable patterns in intraday price dynamics on days with abnormal price changes (H2) and on the following days (H3).
Findings
The results suggest that there are statistically significant differences between intraday dynamics on days with abnormal price changes and normal days respectively; also, prices tend to change in the direction of the abnormal change during that day, but move in the opposite direction on the following day. Finally, there exist trading strategies that generate abnormal profits by exploiting the detected anomalies, which can be seen as evidence of market inefficiency.
Originality/value
New evidence on abnormal price changes and related trading strategies in the FOREX.
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Keywords
The dividend month premium is the phenomenon that firms have abnormal returns in predicted dividend month. This study aims to examine the dividend month premium in the Korean…
Abstract
The dividend month premium is the phenomenon that firms have abnormal returns in predicted dividend month. This study aims to examine the dividend month premium in the Korean stock market, using common stocks listed on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ from January 1999 to December 2016. Abnormal returns are estimated using the following asset price models: capital asset pricing model, Fama–French three-factor model and the Fama–French–Carhart four-factor model. This study finds positive abnormal returns in predicted dividend months, and even for the within-firm portfolio that buys stocks in the predicted dividend months and sells the same stocks in other months. The price impact and the subsequent reversals are greater with lower liquidity and higher dividend yield, implying that the price pressure from dividend-seeking investors affects this dividend month premium. In addition, the anomalies with the pre-declaration stock are smaller than the post-declaration stock, suggesting the necessity to improve the cash dividend policy of post-declaration for market efficiency.
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Heewoo Park and Yuen Jung Park
The authors investigate whether the effects of stock buyback announcements on credit default swap (CDS) spread changes for US firms depend on macroeconomic conditions. The authors…
Abstract
The authors investigate whether the effects of stock buyback announcements on credit default swap (CDS) spread changes for US firms depend on macroeconomic conditions. The authors find that abnormal CDS spreads increase for small-sized firms announced to repurchase a higher share ratio during the normal period. In contrast, abnormal CDS spreads decrease for big-sized firms regardless of the magnitude of the repurchase ratio during the crisis period. The results of this study suggest that the wealth transfer effect dominates the signaling effect for small-sized firms with higher target ratios during the normal period. In contrast, the signaling effect is stronger for bondholders of big-sized firms during the crisis period.
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Daniel Werner Lima Souza de Almeida, Tabajara Pimenta Júnior, Luiz Eduardo Gaio and Fabiano Guasti Lima
This study aims to evaluate the presence of abnormal returns due to stock splits or reverse stock splits in the Brazilian capital market context.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to evaluate the presence of abnormal returns due to stock splits or reverse stock splits in the Brazilian capital market context.
Design/methodology/approach
The event study technique was used on data from 518 events that occurred in a 30-year period (1987–2016), comprising 167 stock splits and 351 reverse stock splits.
Findings
The results revealed the occurrence of abnormal returns around the time the shares began trading stock splits or reverse stock splits at a statistical significance level of 5%. The main conclusion is that stock split and reverse stock split operations represent opportunities for extraordinary gains and may serve as a reference for investment strategies in the Brazilian stock market.
Originality/value
This study innovates by including reverse stock splits, as the existing literature focuses on stock splits, and by testing two distinct “zero” dates that of the ordinary general meeting that approved the share alteration and the “ex” date of the alteration, when the shares were effectively traded, reverse split or split.
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This study aims to evaluate the short-term impact of brokerage analysts’ recommendations on abnormal returns using a sample selected from the S&P BSE 100 in the Indian context…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to evaluate the short-term impact of brokerage analysts’ recommendations on abnormal returns using a sample selected from the S&P BSE 100 in the Indian context. The efficient market hypothesis, specifically, its semi-strong form, is tested for “Buy” stock recommendations published in the electronic version of Business Standard. The crucial issue is, are there any abnormal returns that can be earned following a recommendation? If so, how quickly do prices incorporate the information value of these recommendations? It tests the impact of analyst recommendations on average abnormal returns (AARs) and standardized abnormal returns (SRs) to determine their statistical significance.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a sample of stock recommendations published in the e-version of Business Standard, the event study methodology is used to determine whether AARs and SRs are significantly different from zero for the duration of the event window by using several significance tests.
Findings
The findings indicate a marginal opportunity for profit in the short term, restricted to the event day. However, the effect does not persist, i.e. the market is efficient in its semi-strong form implying that investors cannot consistently earn abnormal returns by following analysts’ recommendations. Post the event date, the market reaction to analyst recommendations becomes positive, however, insignificant until the ninth day after the recommendation providing support to the underreaction hypothesis given by Shliefer (2000) and post-recommendation price drift documented by Womack (1996). The study contributes by using different statistical tests to determine the significance of returns.
Practical implications
There are important implications for traders, investors and portfolio managers. The speed with which market prices incorporate publicly available information is useful in formulating trading strategies. However, stock characteristics such as market capitalization, volatility and level of analyst coverage need to be incorporated while making investment decisions.
Originality/value
The study contributes by using different statistical tests to determine the significance of returns.
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Sudipta Kumar Nanda and Parama Barai
This paper investigates if investors consider legal insider trading data while making investment decisions. If any investment decision is based on insider transactions, then it…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper investigates if investors consider legal insider trading data while making investment decisions. If any investment decision is based on insider transactions, then it will result in abnormal stock characteristics. The purpose of this paper is to investigate if insider trading affects stock characteristics like price, return and volume. The paper further investigates the effect on stock characteristics after the trade of different types of insiders and the relationship between abnormal return and abnormal volume.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses the event study method to measure the abnormal price, return and volume. Two-stage least square regression is used to investigate the relationship between abnormal return and abnormal volume.
Findings
The insider trades affect price, return and volume. The results are identical for both buy and sell transactions. The trades of different types of insiders have diverse effects on stock characteristics. The trades of substantial shareholders give rise to the highest abnormal price and return, whereas the promoters' trades result in the highest abnormal volume. No relationship is detected between abnormal return and volume.
Originality/value
A novel method to calculate the abnormal price is proposed. The effect of trading of all types of insiders on stock characteristics is analyzed. The relationship between abnormal return and abnormal volume, after an insider trade, is investigated.
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Pyemo N. Afego and Imhotep P. Alagidede
This paper explores how a firm's public stand on a social-political issue can be a salient signal of the firm's values, identity and reputation. In particular, it investigates how…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper explores how a firm's public stand on a social-political issue can be a salient signal of the firm's values, identity and reputation. In particular, it investigates how boycott participation–conceptualized as a cue of a corporation's stand on important social-political issues–may affect the stock market valuation of that corporation, as well as how corporations legitimise their stand on the issues.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ a mixed-methods design that uses both qualitative techniques (content analysis) and quantitative methods (event study methodology) to examine a sample of US firms who participated in a boycott campaign that sought to call attention to issues of hate speech, misinformation and discriminatory content on social media platform Facebook.
Findings
Findings from the qualitative content analysis of company statements show that firms legitimise their stand on, and participation in, the boycott by expressing altruistic values and suggesting to stakeholders that their stand aligns not only with organizational values/convictions but also with the greater social good. Importantly, the event study results show that firms who publicly announced their intention to participate in the boycott, on average, earn a statistically significant positive abnormal stock return of 2.68% in the four days immediately after their announcements.
Research limitations/implications
Findings relate to a specific case of a boycott campaign. Also, the sample size is limited and restricted to US stocks. The signalling value of corporate social advocacy actions may vary across countries due to institutional and cultural differences. Market reaction may also be different for issues that are more charged than the ones examined in this study. Therefore, future research might investigate other markets, use larger sample sizes and consider a broader range of social-political issues.
Practical implications
The presence of significant stock price changes for firms that publicly announced their decision to side with activists on the issue of hate propaganda and misinformation offers potentially valuable insights on the timing of trades for investors and arbitrageurs. Insights from the study also provide a practical resource that can be used to inform organizations' decision-making about such issues.
Social implications
Taking the lead to push on social-political issues, such as hate propaganda, discrimination, among others, and communicating their stands in a way that speaks to their values and identity, could be rewarding for companies.
Originality/value
This study provides novel evidence on the impact that corporate stances on important social-political issues can have on stock market valuation of firms and therefore extends the existing related research which until now has focused on the impact on consumer purchasing intent and brand loyalty.
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Ali Murad Syed and Ishtiaq Ahmad Bajwa
This study aims to find the response by stock market against the announcements of quarterly earnings is empirically tested by exploiting event study methodology. Efficient market…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to find the response by stock market against the announcements of quarterly earnings is empirically tested by exploiting event study methodology. Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) on Saudi stock exchange is also tried on.
Design/methodology/approach
The market model is applied to help gauge the expected returns and to illustrate abnormal returns around the event date.
Findings
The results established that Saudi Stock Market does not bear semi-strong form of EMH. How efficient is the Saudi market is also reflected through evidence of significant abnormal returns and post-earnings announcement drift around earning announcements dates.
Research limitations/implications
The authors have not used analysts’ forecast as the expected earnings which are the limitation. As mentioned earlier, the authors used the quarterly earnings of the previous year as a proxy and that proxy could have been replaced by analysts’ forecast. Another limitation is that the trading volume in the event window is not considered.
Practical implications
The behavior of Saudi capital market is of much concern, and the study of this with a perspective of EMH is the significance of this paper.
Social implications
All stakeholders closely watch earnings announcements and its share price movement around the announcement date. Recently, Saudi Arabia has opened its doors to foreign investors, and big foreign investors are going to enter into Saudi capital market, and after their entry, the behavior of market could be different. In the authors’ opinion, this is the right time to study the efficiency of Saudi market before the entry of foreign investors.
Originality/value
This study is based on the gap created by EMH of Saudi market using event methodology, observed in the existing literature, and it will be a contribution to literature.
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Marco Botta and Luca Vittorio Angelo Colombo
It is widely believed that deviating from the “one share-one vote” principle leads to corporate inefficiencies. To measure the market appraisal of this potential inefficiency…
Abstract
Purpose
It is widely believed that deviating from the “one share-one vote” principle leads to corporate inefficiencies. To measure the market appraisal of this potential inefficiency, this study aims to analyse the market reaction to a change from the “one head-one vote” to the “one share-one vote” mechanism by means of a quasi-natural experiment: a 2015 Italian reform forcing all listed cooperative banks to transform into joint-stock companies.
Design/methodology/approach
To investigate the market reaction around the regulatory change, this study uses both a traditional event study and a novel methodology based on the synthetic control method as well as on Bayesian statistical techniques.
Findings
This study estimates the market valuation of the effects of the governance change around the event date being equal to a cumulative average increase in market value of about 14 per cent using an event study methodology, and of about 13 per cent using Bayesian techniques.
Originality/value
This study provides evidence on the fact that the voting mechanism significantly affects the market values of companies. The study also introduces a novel statistical technique that can be extremely useful in analysing single-firm event studies.
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Fernanda Pagin, Matheus da Costa Gomes, Rafael Moreira Antônio, Tabajara Pimenta Júnior and Luiz Eduardo Gaio
This paper aims to identify if there is an impact of the rating announcements issued by the agencies on the returns of the stocks of Brazilian companies listed on Brasil Bolsa…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to identify if there is an impact of the rating announcements issued by the agencies on the returns of the stocks of Brazilian companies listed on Brasil Bolsa Balcão, from August 2002 to August 2018, identifying which types of announcement (upgrade, downgrade or the same initial classification) cause variations in prices around the date of disclosure of the rating.
Design/methodology/approach
The event study methodology was applied to verify the market reaction around the announcement dates in a 21-day event window (−10, +10). The market model was used to calculate the abnormal returns (ARs), and subsequently, the accumulated ARs.
Findings
The hypotheses tests allowed to verify that the accumulated ARs are different, before and after the three types of rating announcements (upgrades, downgrades and the same classification); in upgrades, the mean of accumulated ARs increases in the days before the event, while in downgrades, this increase occurs after the event. This paper concluded that the rating announcements have an impact on the return of stock of the Brazilian market and that the market reaction occurs most of the time before the event happens, which indicates that the market can anticipate the information contained in the changes in credit ratings.
Practical implications
The results have considerable implications for portfolio managers, institutional investors and traders. It facilitates investment decision-making in the face of rating classification announcements. Market participants can pay more attention to their investment strategies and asset allocation during periods of risk rating announcements. Additionally, traders can understand the form of investment strategy for superior earnings.
Originality/value
The importance of the study is related to the fact that the results may explain the causes of specific movements in the Brazilian financial market related to a source of information that may or may not be able to influence the decisions of the financial agents that operate in this market. The justification is centred on the idea that, for investors who somehow react to the announcements, it is relevant to understand the impact of rating classifications on companies, as access to such information allows for more conscious decision-making.
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