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1 – 10 of 151Amit Rohilla, Neeta Tripathi and Varun Bhandari
In a first of its kind, this paper tries to explore the long-run relationship between investors' sentiment and selected industries' returns over the period January 2010 to…
Abstract
Purpose
In a first of its kind, this paper tries to explore the long-run relationship between investors' sentiment and selected industries' returns over the period January 2010 to December 2021.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses 23 market and macroeconomic proxies to measure investor sentiment. Principal component analysis has been used to create sentiment sub-indices that represent investor sentiment. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and other sophisticated econometric techniques such as the unit root test, the cumulative sum (CUSUM) stability test, regression, etc. have been used to achieve the objectives of the study.
Findings
The authors find that there is a significant relationship between sentiment sub-indices and industries' returns over the period of study. Market and economic variables, market ratios, advance-decline ratio, high-low index, price-to-book value ratio and liquidity in the economy are some of the significant sub-indices explaining industries' returns.
Research limitations/implications
The study has relevant implications for retail investors, policy-makers and other decision-makers in the Indian stock market. Results are helpful for the investor in improving their decision-making and identifying those sentiment sub-indices and the variables therein that are relevant in explaining the return of a particular industry.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the existing literature by exploring the relationship between sentiment and industries' returns in the Indian stock market and by identifying relevant sentiment sub-indices. Also, the study supports the investors' irrationality, which arises due to a plethora of behavioral biases as enshrined in classical finance.
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Tapas Kumar Sethy and Naliniprava Tripathy
This study aims to explore the impact of systematic liquidity risk on the averaged cross-sectional equity return of the Indian equity market. It also examines the effects of…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore the impact of systematic liquidity risk on the averaged cross-sectional equity return of the Indian equity market. It also examines the effects of illiquidity and decomposed illiquidity on the conditional volatility of the equity market.
Design/methodology/approach
The present study employs the Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM) for pricing systematic liquidity risk using the Fama & MacBeth cross-sectional regression model in the Indian stock market from January 1, 2012, to March 31, 2021. Further, the study employed an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (1,1) model to observe the impact of decomposed illiquidity on the equity market’s conditional volatility. The study also uses the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model to illuminate the return-volatility-liquidity relationship.
Findings
The study’s findings indicate that the commonality between individual security liquidity and aggregate liquidity is positive, and the covariance of individual security liquidity and the market return negatively affects the expected return. The study’s outcome specifies that illiquidity time series analysis exhibits the asymmetric effect of directional change in return on illiquidity. Further, the study indicates a significant impact of illiquidity and decomposed illiquidity on conditional volatility. This suggests an asymmetric effect of illiquidity shocks on conditional volatility in the Indian stock market.
Originality/value
This study is one of the few studies that used the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) to measure liquidity and market risks as specified in the LCAPM. Further, the findings of the reverse impact of illiquidity and decomposed higher and lower illiquidity on conditional volatility confirm the presence of price informativeness and its immediate effects on illiquidity in the Indian stock market. The study strengthens earlier studies and offers new insights into stock market liquidity to clarify the association between liquidity and stock return for effective policy and strategy formulation that can benefit investors.
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Tasruma Sharmeen Chowdhury and S.M. Kalbin Salema
This study aims to identify the factors that influence the willingness of Bangladeshi retail investors to invest in ṣukūk.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to identify the factors that influence the willingness of Bangladeshi retail investors to invest in ṣukūk.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors surveyed Bangladeshi retail investors using a structured questionnaire to understand their perspectives on potential investment in ṣukūk. The authors considered the behavioral aspects of retail investors and the desired ṣukūk features to analyze the demand side. Factors and regression analyses were performed to identify the persuading factors.
Findings
The results indicate that investor awareness is a fundamental factor in potential investments in ṣukūk. Investors perceive the security represented by government and third-party guarantees as a persuasive feature of ṣukūk. The tradability and tenor of ṣukūk also affect the investment intention. Sharīʿah consciousness of the investors also plays a significant role in their investment decisions.
Research limitations/implications
One limitation of this study is that it incorporates potential individual investors only, and precludes institutional investors. In the future, there is scope for research to explore the demand factors impacting institutional investors of ṣukūk in Bangladesh.
Practical implications
The authors expect that the study will aid policymakers and ṣukūk issuers in crafting strategies to cater to the needs of Bangladeshi retail investors.
Originality/value
This study is the earliest research conducted in Bangladesh to determine the factors impacting the willingness of individual investors to make their potential investments in ṣukūk. To the best of the authors' knowledge, no study has analyzed the desired ṣukūk features from the perspective of Bangladeshi retail investors.
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Jungmu Kim, Yuen Jung Park and Thuy Thi Thu Truong
The authors examined whether stocks with higher left-tail risk measures earn higher or lower futures returns. Specifically, the authors estimate the cross-sectional principal…
Abstract
The authors examined whether stocks with higher left-tail risk measures earn higher or lower futures returns. Specifically, the authors estimate the cross-sectional principal component of a battery of left-tail risk measures and analyze future returns on stocks with high principal component values. In contrast to finance theories on the risk–return trade-off relationship, the study results show that high left-tail risk stocks have lower future returns. This finding is robust to various left-tail risk measures and controls for other risk factors. Moreover, the negative relationship between the left-tail risk and returns is more pronounced for stocks that are actively traded by retail investors. This empirical result is consistent with behavioral theory that when investors make decisions based on experience, they tend to underweight the likelihood of rare events.
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This research mainly intends to ascertain the stimulus of investor investment tendencies on the amount of capital investment in the share market.
Abstract
Purpose
This research mainly intends to ascertain the stimulus of investor investment tendencies on the amount of capital investment in the share market.
Design/methodology/approach
Utilizing a sample of 477 individual investors who actively trade on the Bangladesh capital market, this empirical study was conducted. The objective of this examination is to ascertain the investment trading behavior of retail investors in the Bangladesh capital market using multiple regression, hypothesis testing and correlation analysis.
Findings
The coefficients of market categories, preferred share price ranges and investment source reveal negative predictor correlations; all predictors are statistically significant, with the exception of investment source. Positive predictive correlations exist between investor category, financial literacy degree, investment duration, emotional tolerance level, risk consideration, investment monitoring activities, internal sentiment and correct investment selection. Except for risk consideration and investment monitoring activities, all components have statistically significant predictions. The quantity of capital invested in the stock market is heavily influenced by the investment duration, preferred share price ranges, investor type, emotional toleration level and decision-making accuracy level.
Research limitations/implications
This investigation was conducted exclusively with Bangladeshi individual stockholders. Therefore, the existing study can be extended to institutional investors and conceivably to other divisions. It is possible to conduct this similar study internationally. And the query can enlarge with more sample size and use a more sophisticated econometric model. Despite that the outcomes of this study help the regulatory authorities to arrange more informative seminars and consciousness programs.
Practical implications
The conclusions have practical implications since they empower investors to modify their portfolios based on elements including share price ranges, investment horizons and emotional stability. To improve chances of success and reach financial objectives, they stress the significance of bettering financial understanding, active monitoring and risk analysis. Results can also be enhanced by distributing ownership over a number of market sectors and price points. The results highlight the value of patience and giving potential returns enough time.
Originality/value
This study on the trading behavior of investors in Bangladesh is unique and based on field study, and the findings of this study will deliver information to the stakeholders of the capital market regarding the investors’ trading behavior belonging to different categories, financial literacy level, investment duration, emotional tolerance level and internal feeling.
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In this study, we investigate what drives the MAX effect in the South Korean stock market. We find that the MAX effect is significant only for overpriced stocks categorized by the…
Abstract
In this study, we investigate what drives the MAX effect in the South Korean stock market. We find that the MAX effect is significant only for overpriced stocks categorized by the composite mispricing index. Our results suggest that investors' demand for the lottery and the arbitrage risk effect of MAX may overlap and negate each other. Furthermore, MAX itself has independent information apart from idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL), which assures that the high positive correlation between IVOL and MAX does not directly cause our empirical findings. Finally, by analyzing the direct trading behavior of investors, our results suggest that investors' buying pressure for lottery-like stocks is concentrated among overpriced stocks.
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Using the next-day and next-week returns of stocks in the Korean market, we examine the association of option volume ratios – i.e. the option-to-stock (O/S) ratio, which is the…
Abstract
Using the next-day and next-week returns of stocks in the Korean market, we examine the association of option volume ratios – i.e. the option-to-stock (O/S) ratio, which is the total volume of put options and call options scaled by total underlying equity volume, and the put-call (P/C) ratio, which is the put volume scaled by total put and call volume – with future returns. We find that O/S ratios are positively related to future returns, but P/C ratios have no significant association with returns. We calculate individual, institutional, and foreign investors’ option ratios to determine which ratios are significantly related to future returns and find that, for all investors, higher O/S ratios predict higher future returns. The predictability of P/C depends on the investors: institutional and individual investors’ P/C ratios are not related to returns, but foreign P/C predicts negative next-day returns. For net-buying O/S ratios, institutional net-buying put-to-stock ratios consistently predict negative future returns. Institutions’ buying and selling put ratios also predict returns. In short, institutional put-to-share ratios predict future returns when we use various option ratios, but individual option ratios do not.
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Chui Zi Ong, Rasidah Mohd-Rashid, Ayesha Anwar and Waqas Mehmood
The main purpose of this study is to examine the disclosure of earnings forecasts in firms' prospectuses to explain investor demands or, in other words, oversubscription rates of…
Abstract
Purpose
The main purpose of this study is to examine the disclosure of earnings forecasts in firms' prospectuses to explain investor demands or, in other words, oversubscription rates of Malaysian initial public offerings (IPOs).
Design/methodology/approach
Ordinary least squares and robust methods were used to examine cross-sectional data comprising 466 fixed-price IPOs reported for the period from January 2000 to February 2020 on Bursa Malaysia.
Findings
The results showed that IPOs with earnings forecasts obtained higher oversubscription rates than those without earnings forecasts. IPOs with earnings forecasts provide value-relevant signals to prospective investors about the good prospects of firms, resulting in an increase in the demand for IPO shares. For the IPO samples listed during the global financial crisis (GFC) period, IPOs with earnings forecasts had negative impacts on the oversubscription rates. These results were robust to quantile methods and the two-stage least squares method.
Research limitations/implications
The research findings provide fresh information for investors regarding the importance of earnings forecasts as a trustworthy signal of a firm’s quality when making share subscription decisions.
Practical implications
The regulator is advised to encourage issuers to include earnings forecasts in their prospectuses since such forecasts help to increase the demand for IPOs.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the literature by offering empirical evidence regarding the signalling impact of earnings forecast disclosures on investor demands for Malaysian IPOs. Moreover, this study provides evidence demonstrating the impact of earnings forecast disclosures on oversubscription rates of Malaysian IPOs during the GFC period.
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Hang Thu Nguyen and Hao Thi Nhu Nguyen
This study examines the influence of stock liquidity on stock price crash risk and the moderating role of institutional blockholders in Vietnam’s stock market.
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the influence of stock liquidity on stock price crash risk and the moderating role of institutional blockholders in Vietnam’s stock market.
Design/methodology/approach
Crash risk is measured by the negative coefficient of skewness of firm-specific weekly returns (NCSKEW) and the down-to-up volatility of firm-specific weekly stock returns (DUVOL). Liquidity is measured by adjusted Amihud illiquidity. The two-stage least squares method is used to address endogeneity issues.
Findings
Using firm-level data from Vietnam, we find that crash risk increases with stock liquidity. The relationship is stronger in firms owned by institutional blockholders. Moreover, intensive selling by institutional blockholders in the future will positively moderate the relationship between liquidity and crash risk.
Practical implications
Since stock liquidity could exacerbate crash risk through institutional blockholder trading, firm managers should avoid bad news accumulation and practice timely information disclosures. Investors should be mindful of the risk associated with liquidity and blockholder trading.
Originality/value
We contribute to the literature by showing that the activities of blockholders could partly explain the relationship between liquidity and crash risk. High liquidity encourages blockholders to exit upon receiving private bad news.
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In 2022, US financial regulators proposed to mandate a single central clearing mechanism for treasury bonds and repo transactions to stabilize financial markets. The systemic…
Abstract
In 2022, US financial regulators proposed to mandate a single central clearing mechanism for treasury bonds and repo transactions to stabilize financial markets. The systemic risks inherent in repo markets were first highlighted by the global financial crisis and, as a response, global financial authorities such as the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and Bank for International Settlements (BIS) have advocated for the introduction of a central counterparty (CCP). This study examines the structural characteristics of Korean repo markets and proposes the introduction of CCPs as a way to mitigate systemic risk. To this end, the author analyzes the structural differences between US and European repo markets and estimates the potential consequences of introducing CCP clearing in local repo markets. In general, CCPs offer two benefits: they can reduce required capital through netting in multilateral transactions, and they can mitigate the effects of risk transfer by isolating counterparty risk during periods of turbulence. In Korea, the latter effect is expected to play a pivotal role in mitigating potential risks.
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