Search results

This study aims to explore how to overcome and address the loss of exploratory innovation, thereby achieving greater success in exploratory innovation. This phenomenon of loss occurs when enterprises decrease their investment in and engagement with exploratory innovation, ultimately leading to an insufficient amount of such innovation efforts. Drawing on dynamic capabilities, this study investigates the relationship between organizational foresight and exploratory innovation and examines the moderating role of breakthrough orientation/financial orientation.

This study used survey data collected from 296 Chinese high-tech companies in multiple industries and sectors.

The evidence produced by this study reveals that three elements of organizational foresight (i.e. environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and integrating capabilities) positively influence exploratory innovation. Furthermore, this positive effect is strengthened in the context of a high-breakthrough orientation. Moreover, the relationships among environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and exploratory innovation become weaker as an enterprise’s financial orientation increases, whereas a strong financial orientation does not affect the relationship between integrating capabilities and exploratory innovation.

Ambidexterity is key to successful enterprise innovation. Compared with exploitative innovation, it is by no means easy to engage in exploratory innovation, which is especially important in high-tech companies. While the loss of exploratory innovation has been observed, few empirical studies have explored ways to promote exploratory innovation more effectively. A key research implication of this study pertains to the role of organizational foresight in the improvement of exploratory innovation in the context of high-tech companies.

This paper contributes to the broader literature on exploratory innovation and organizational foresight and provides practical guidance for high-tech companies regarding ways of avoiding the loss of exploratory innovation and becoming more successful at exploratory innovation.

Currently, foresight studies have been adapted to incorporate new techniques based on big data and machine learning (BDML), which has led to new approaches and conceptual changes regarding uncertainty and how to prospect future. The purpose of this study is to explore the effects of BDML on foresight practice and on conceptual changes in uncertainty.

The methodology is twofold: a bibliometric analysis of BDML-supported foresight studies collected from Scopus up to 2021 and a survey analysis with 479 foresight experts to gather opinions and expectations from academics and practitioners related to BDML in foresight studies. These approaches provide a comprehensive understanding of the current landscape and future paths of BDML-supported foresight research, using quantitative analysis of literature and qualitative input from experts in the field, and discuss potential theoretical changes related to uncertainty.

It is still incipient but increasing the number of prospective studies that use BDML techniques, which are often integrated into traditional foresight methodologies. Although it is expected that BDML will boost data analysis, there are concerns regarding possible biased results. Data literacy will be required from the foresight team to leverage the potential and mitigate risks. The article also discusses the extent to which BDML is expected to affect uncertainty, both theoretically and in foresight practice.

This study contributes to the conceptual debate on decision-making under uncertainty and raises public understanding on the opportunities and challenges of using BDML for foresight and decision-making.

The purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic one. At the same time, the purpose is also to propose a useful innovation to enforce the usability of both methods. On the one hand, mission-oriented policies run the risk of being overly focused on the present and of not being able to develop preparedness in organization. On the other hand, scenario development has the reverse problem it often does not point out how to use scenario narratives to inform and devise short-term strategic actions.

The paper proposes an innovative methodological approach, the mission-oriented scenarios, which hybridizes Mazzucato's mission-oriented public policy framework with Jim Dator's Manoa school four futures method. The proposed methodological innovation emerges from a urban foresight academic-led project carried out in the context of the Metropolitan City of Turin, Italy, where a first application of the mission-oriented scenarios was tested on six different focal issues (from reindustrialization to cultural policies) and the scenario narratives were used as sources for the grounding of 12 missions and 48 strategic actions towards 2030.

Mission-oriented scenarios can contribute to the generation of more sustainable and inclusive urban public policies. This methodological proposal is based on an original mix of knowledge exchange procedures borrowed from methodological approaches with different backgrounds: the mission-oriented and the archetypal scenarios. Their conjunction could support the formulation of ambitious yet pragmatic policies, giving a plurality of actors the opportunity to act and establish fruitful and lasting partnerships.

The paper reconstructs one of the first urban foresight projects carried out in a major Italian city by two prestigious universities and exposes a methodological innovation resulting from reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of the project, which opens the door to the development of a new scenario technique.

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.

This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.

Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.

To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.

While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.

Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

The tourist industry has to adopt a big data-driven foresight approach to enhance decision-making in a post-COVID international landscape still marked by significant uncertainty and in which some megatrends have the potential to reshape society in the next decades. This paper, considering the opportunity offered by the application of the quantitative analysis on internet new data sources, proposes a prediction method using Google Trends data based on an estimated transfer function model.

The paper uses the time-series methods to model and predict Google Trends data. A transfer function model is used to transform the prediction of Google Trends data into predictions of tourist arrivals. It predicts the United States tourism demand in Italy.

The results highlight the potential expressed by the use of big data-driven foresight approach. Applying a transfer function model on internet search data, timely forecasts of tourism flows are obtained. The two scenarios emerged can be used in tourism stakeholders’ decision-making process. In a future perspective, the methodological path could be applied to other tourism origin markets, to other internet search engine or other socioeconomic and environmental contexts.

The study raises awareness of foresight literacy in the tourism sector. Secondly, it complements the research on tourism demand forecasting by evaluating the performance of quantitative forecasting techniques on new data sources. Thirdly, it is the first paper that makes the United States arrival predictions in Italy. Finally, the findings provide immediate valuable information to tourism stakeholders that could be used to make decisions.

Due to e-commerce growth, technological advancements and environmental concerns, developing a more nuanced service portfolio has become a critical issue for last-mile logistics service providers. Concurrently, consumers are adopting new modes of consumption. This paper aims to investigate the potential for last-mile logistics service providers to act as intermediaries in access-based consumption and to revitalise their service offerings through product-service systems – a pioneering strategy not executed in the market yet.

This strategic customer foresight study uses a quantitative survey of 1,000 respondents and an online focus group comprising 10 early adopter consumers to investigate emerging last-mile service models. Potential service concepts were identified through the survey, and two distinct concepts were subsequently selected for evaluation and co-development within the focus group. The research was conducted in partnership with an SME logistics company in Finland.

The consumers expressed selective interest in access-based consumption related to the proposed offering of essential household goods. Young adults and consumers in early middle age living in the city centre emerged as the most potential user groups. Economic reasons and short-term needs were the primary motivations for adopting access-based consumption.

The study showed that engaging consumers in a customer foresight process is viable for SMEs innovating their offerings and demonstrates how the process works in practice.

Documented cases of customer integration into foresight processes are rare in earlier research, and this paper extends the knowledge base through a multidisciplinary examination of future consumer behaviour in the last-mile logistics domain. The paper also expands the limited literature on the role of logistics in access-based consumption.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the most recurrent variables characterizing the collaborative relationships of industrial symbiosis (IS) (hereinafter also referred to as “anatomic” variables) established in the attempt to adopt circular economy (CE) by collecting evidence from a rich empirical set of implementation cases in Italy.

The current literature on IS was reviewed, and a content analysis was performed to identify and define the “anatomic” variables affecting its adoption in the circular economy. We followed a multiple-case study methodology investigating 50 cases of IS in Italy and performed a content analysis of the “anatomic” variables characterizing each case.

This research proposes the “anatomic” variables (i.e. industrial sectors involved, public actors involvement, governmental support, facilitator involvement and geographical proximity) explaining the cases of IS in the circular economy. Each “anatomic” variable is discussed at length based on the empirical evidence collected, with a particular reference to the impact on the different development strategies (i.e. “bottom-up” and “top-down”) in the cases observed.

Current literature on IS focuses on a sub-set of variables characterizing collaboration in IS. This research builds on extant literature to define a new framework of five purposeful “anatomic” variables defining IS in the circular economy. Moreover, we also collect and discuss a broad variety of empirical evidence in what is a still under-investigated context (i.e. Italy).

Healthcare providers are under pressure due to increasing and more complex demands for services. Increased pressure on budgets and human resources adds to an ever-growing problem set. Competent leaders are in demand to ensure effective and well-performing healthcare organisations that deliver balanced results and high-quality services. Researchers have made significant efforts to identify and define determining competencies for healthcare leadership. Broad terms such as competence are, however, inherently at risk of becoming too generic to add analytical value. The purpose of this study is to suggest a holistic framework for understanding healthcare leadership competence, that can be crucial for operationalising important healthcare leadership competencies for researchers, decision-makers as well as practitioners.

In the present study, a critical interpretive synthesis (CIS) was conducted to analyse competency descriptions for healthcare leaders. The descriptions were retrieved from peer reviewed empirical studies published between 2010 and 2022 that aimed to identify healthcare services leadership competencies. Grounded theory was utilised to code the data and inductively develop new categories of healthcare leadership competencies. The categorisation was then analysed to suggest a holistic framework for healthcare leadership competence.

Forty-one papers were included in the review. Coding and analysing the competence descriptions resulted in 12 healthcare leadership competence categories: (1) character, (2) interpersonal relations, (3) leadership, (4) professionalism, (5) soft HRM, (6) management, (7) organisational knowledge, (8) technology, (9) knowledge of the healthcare environment, (10) change and innovation, (11) knowledge transformation and (12) boundary spanning. Based on this result, a holistic framework for understanding and analysing healthcare services leadership competencies was suggested. This framework suggests that the 12 categories of healthcare leadership competencies include a range of knowledge, skills and abilities that can be understood across the dimension personal – and technical, and organisational internal and – external competencies.

This literature review was conducted with the results of searching only two electronic databases. Because of this, there is a chance that there exist empirical studies that could have added to the development of the competence categories or could have contradicted some of the descriptions used in this analysis that were assessed as quite harmonised. A CIS also opens for a broader search, including the grey literature, books, policy documents and so on, but this study was limited to peer-reviewed empirical studies. This limitation could also have affected the result, as complex phenomenon such as competence might have been disclosed in greater details in, for example, books.

The holistic framework for healthcare leadership competences offers a common understanding of a “fuzzy” concept such as competence and can be used to identify specific competency needs in healthcare organisations, to develop strategic competency plans and educational programmes for healthcare leaders.

This study reveals a lack of consensus regarding the use and understanding of the concept of competence, and that key competencies addressed in the included papers are described vastly different in terms of what knowledge, skills and abilities they entail. This challenges the operationalisation of healthcare services leadership competencies. The proposed framework for healthcare services leadership competencies offers a common understanding of work-related competencies and a possibility to analyse key leadership competencies based on a holistic framework.

The universities of applied sciences (UASs) in Finland play a significant role in providing skilled professionals with higher education degrees to meet the needs of the labor market and society as a whole. The purpose of this study is to determine what the staff in these universities consider the role of UASs in promoting sustainable development (SD) to be.

The qualitative research data were collected from a survey distributed among UAS staff in the spring of 2021. The data consisted of 831 responses to an open-ended question on how UASs could promote SD and a sense of responsibility for it. The method used for the data analysis was theory-led content analysis.

Staff at UASs are actively promoting SD in higher education and have many ideas on how to do this, which is encouraging. With further processing of these ideas and support from management, UASs can play a more important role in sustainability work and set an example for how to build a sustainable future.

The promotion of SD is a timely topic, and examples of SD implementation and good practices can promote discussion of the role of higher education institutions in SD promotion and highlight collective ways to promote it.