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This paper aims to analyze the research highlights, evolutionary process and future research directions in the field of tourism forecasting.

This study used CiteSpace to conduct a bibliometric analysis of 1,213 tourism forecasting articles.

The results show that tourism forecasting research has experienced three stages. The institutional collaboration includes transnational collaboration and domestic institutional collaboration. Collaboration between countries still needs to be strengthened. The authors’ collaboration is mainly based on on-campus collaboration. Articles with high co-citation are primarily published in core tourism journals and other relevant publications. The research content mainly pertains to tourism demand, revenue management, hotel demand and tourist volumes. Ex ante forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic has broadened existing tourism forecasting research. The future forecasting research focuses on the rational use of big data, improving the accuracy of models and enhancing the credibility of forecasting results.

This paper uses CiteSpace to analyze tourism forecasting articles to obtain future research trends, which supplements existing research and provides directions for future research.

本文旨在分析旅游预测领域的研究重点、演化过程和未来的研究方向。

本研究使用 CiteSpace 软件对 1213 篇旅游预测文章进行了文 献计量学分析。

结果表明, 旅游预测研究经历三个阶段。机构合作包含国际机构合作和 国内机构合作, 需要持续加强国家之间的合作, 作者之间的合作多以校内合作为 主。高引用文章不仅发表在旅游领域的核心期刊还发表在其他专业的核心期刊上。 旅游预测研究的主要内容为旅游需求、收入管理、酒店需求和游客量。新冠疫情 期间的事前预测拓宽了现有的旅游预测研究。未来预测的研究重点在于合理利用 大数据, 提高模型的准确定以及提高预测结果的可信度。

本文使用 CiteSpace 分析旅游预测文章得到未来研究趋势, 既是对 现有研究的补充, 又为今后的研究提供方向。

Este artículo pretende analizar los aspectos más destacados de la investigación, el proceso evolutivo y las futuras orientaciones de la investigación en el campo de la previsión turística.

Este estudio utilizó CiteSpace para realizar un análisis bibliométrico de 1213 artículos sobre previsión turística.

Los resultados muestran que la investigación sobre previsión turística ha experimentado tres etapas. La colaboración institucional incluye la colaboración transnacional y la colaboración institucional nacional. La colaboración entre países aún debe reforzarse. La colaboración entre autores se basa principalmente en la colaboración dentro del campus. Los artículos con una alta cocitación se publican principalmente en las principales revistas de turismo y en otras publicaciones relevantes. El contenido de la investigación se refiere principalmente a la demanda turística, el revenue management, la demanda hotelera y los volúmenes turísticos. La previsión previa y durante la pandemia de la COVID-19 ha ampliado la investigación existente sobre previsión turística. La futura investigación sobre previsiones se centra en el uso racional de los big data, la mejora de la precisión de los modelos y el aumento de la credibilidad de los resultados de las previsiones.

Este artículo utiliza CiteSpace para analizar artículos de previsión turística con el fin de obtener futuras tendencias de investigación, lo que complementa la investigación existente y proporciona orientaciones para futuras investigaciones.

With the rise of the gig economy, management positions are increasingly staffed with flexible labor, so-called interim managers. They plunge into organizations for a limited period, operating in a liminal position as partly insider, partly outsider. Although several contributions to their client organizations are acknowledged, it is unknown how the interim manager’s knowledge from previous assignments is made useful in the new context under these particular working conditions. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to increase the understanding of how the interim manager’s knowledge is transferred to the client organization while operating from a liminal position.

This paper presents an interview-based multiple case study of six interim assignments where knowledge transfer is considered a social and context-dependent process.

The findings unveil the multifaceted nature of the liminal position, which consists of task orientation, time limitation, political detachment and cultural distance. These facets contribute to knowledge transfer in terms of new shared understandings and joint interests, which in turn might create new practices that augment continuous knowledge-sharing patterns.

The results contribute to the research on flexible work arrangements by shedding light on how the liminal position, predominantly depicted as an obstacle for the individual, might facilitate knowledge transfer. Through the process of knowledge generation, it is shown how a short-term engagement might enable the organization to increase its knowledge over time.

This study aims to offer an overview of hospitality and tourism research on artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on the industry. More specifically, this study examines hospitality and tourism AI research trends in hospitality and tourism customer service experience creation and delivery, service failure and recovery, human resources and organizational behavior. Based on the review, this study identifies the challenges and opportunities and provides directions for future studies.

A narrative synthesis approach was used to review the hospitality and tourism research on AI and its impact on various aspects of the industry.

AI and AI applications in customer service experience creation and delivery and its possible effects on employees and organizations are viewed as a double-edged sword. Although the use of AI and AI applications offers various benefits, there are also serious concerns over the ethical use of AI, the replacement of human employees by AI-powered devices, discomfort among customers and employees and trust toward AI.

The paper offers an updated holistic overview of AI and its implications in different facets of the hospitality and tourism industry. Challenges and opportunities are discussed to foster future discussions on the use of AI among scholars and industry professionals.

Just-in-Time (JIT) arrival in the context of port calls can be used to reduce fuel and emissions to achieve environmental targets. The purpose of this paper is to study the implementation process of the Pre-booking Berth Allocation Policy (PBP) and analyze the effectiveness of this policy for the implementation of JIT in port calls.

The study deploys a single case study approach to empirically analyze port authority’s transition from a first-come-first-served (FCFS) arrival policy to the PBP. Observations, interviews and documents were used to collect data during 2020–2022. The analysis deployed the capability, opportunity, motivation and behavior model.

The transition from FCFS to PBP requires an inter-organizational approach, engaging external actors to manage diverse needs and preferences. This fosters effective transition and addresses conflicting interests. The PBP enables JIT arrival, enhancing operational and environmental performance, but faces barriers such as resource dependency and lack of trust. Information sharing capability among the actors, supported by Port Community Systems and adjusted operating rules, is crucial. Moreover, the PBP facilitates integration between sea and hinterland transportation, improving planning and efficiency across maritime transportation chains.

The single case study limits the generalizability of the findings.

Implementing the PBP is complex and demands careful planning from managers. Involving port call actors in the transition is helpful for port managers because they provide valuable feedback and highlight overlooked issues.

Five propositions are suggested to highlight the role of inter-organizational collaboration, information sharing and overcoming barriers such as resource dependency to successfully realize the benefits of JIT in maritime transportation chains.

Overcrowding continues to afflict emergency departments (EDs), and its attendant consequences are becoming increasingly severe. The burden of the COVID-19 pandemic is further escalating the situation worldwide. One of the most critical questions is how to adequately quantify what constitutes overcrowding and determine implications for operations management in improving service efficiency. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned.

The authors propose the time and class complexity measures for ED service systems, taking into account important patient-level and system characteristics. Using an extensive data set from a Canadian ED, the authors investigate the performance of complexity-based measures in predicting service delays.

The authors find that the complexity measure is potentially more important than some well-known crowding metrics. In particular, EDs can improve service efficiency by managing the level of complexity within a desirable interval. Furthermore, complexity exposes how the interplay between demand-side behavioral changes and supply-side responses affects operational performance. Moreover, the results suggest that arrival patterns—the number of patients of each class arriving per time and times between events (arrivals and service completions)—increase the risk of service delays more than the demand volume.

This paper is the first to provide an extensive investigation into the application of the complexity-based measure for ED crowding. The study demonstrates potential values to be gained in ED service systems if complexity measure is incorporated into their operations management decisions.

This study aims to determine the effects of lodging infrastructure development (LID) on Cordillera Administrative Region’s (CAR) environmental quality and natural resource management and its implication to globally responsible leadership. Specifically, this study sought to determine the contribution of LID to environmental deterioration and natural resource degradation in the CAR. As a result, a mathematical model is developed, which supports sustainability practices to maintain the environmental quality and natural resource management in CAR, Philippines.

This study used a descriptive research design using a mixed-methods approach. Self-structured interview and survey were used to gather the data. The population of this study involved three groups. There were 6.28% (34) experts in the field for the qualitative data, 70.24% (380) respondents for the quantitative data and 23.47% (127) from the lodging establishments. 120 respondents from the Department of Tourism – CAR (DOT-CAR) accredited hotels. Nonparametric and nonlinear regression analysis was used to process the data.

The effects of LID on the environmental quality and natural resource management in CAR as measured through carbon emission from liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), electricity and water consumption in the occupied guest rooms revealed a direct correlation between the LID. Findings conclude that the increase in tourist arrival is a trigger factor in the increase in LID in the CAR. The increase in LID implies a rise in carbon emission in the lodging infrastructure. Any increase in tourist arrivals increases lodging room occupancy; the increased lodging room occupancy contributes to carbon emissions. Thus, tourism trends contribute to the deterioration of the environmental quality and degradation of the natural resources in the CAR. A log-log model shows the percentage change in the average growth of tourist arrival and the percentage increase in carbon emissions. Establishments should observe standard room capacity to maintain the carbon emission of occupied lodging rooms at a minimum. Responsible leadership is a factor in the implementation of policy on standard room capacity.

The result of the study has some implications for the lodging businesses, the local government unit (LGU), the Department of Tourism (DOT) and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) in the CAR. The study highlights the contribution of the lodging establishments to CO₂ emission, which can degrade the quality of the environment, and the implication of responsible leadership in managing natural resources in the CAR. The direct inverse relationship between energy use and CO₂ emission in hotels indicates that increased energy consumption leads to environmental degradation (Ahmad et al., 2018). Therefore, responsible leadership among policymakers in the lodging and government sectors – LGU, DOT and DENR – should abound in the CAR. Benchmarking on the model embarked from this study can help in designing and/or enhancing the policy on room capacity standardization, considering the total area with its maximum capacity to keep the carbon emission at a lower rate. Furthermore, as a responsible leader in the community, one should create programs that regulate the number of tourists visiting the place to decrease the number of overnight stays. Besides, having the political will to implement reduced room occupancy throughout the lodging establishments in CAR can help reduce the carbon emissions from the lodging businesses. After all, one of the aims of the International Environment Protection Organization is to reduce CO₂ emissions in the tourism industry. Hence, responsible leadership in environmental quality preservation and sustainable natural resource management must help prevent and avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Most studies about carbon emission in the environment tackle about carbon dioxide emitted by transportation and factories. This study adds to the insights on the existing information about the carbon emission in the environment from the lodging establishments through the use of LPG, electricity and water consumption in the occupied guest rooms. The findings of the study open an avenue for globally responsible leadership in sustaining environmental quality and preservation of natural resources by revisiting and amending the policies on the number of room occupancy, guidelines and standardization, considering the total lodging area with its maximum capacity to keep the carbon emission at a minimum, thus contributing to the lowering of GHG emissions from the lodging industry.

Online reviews serve as valuable sources of information, reflecting tourists’ attentions, preferences and sentiments. However, although the existing research has demonstrated that incorporating online review data can enhance the performance of tourism demand forecasting models, the reliability of online review data and consumers’ decision-making process have not been given adequate attention. To address the aforementioned problem, the purpose of this study is to forecast tourism demand using online review data derived from the analysis of review helpfulness.

The authors propose a novel “identification-first, forecasting-second” framework. This framework prioritizes the identification of helpful reviews through a comprehensive analysis of review helpfulness, followed by the integration of helpful online review data into the forecasting system. Using the SARIMAX model with helpful online review data sourced from TripAdvisor, this study forecasts tourist arrivals in Hong Kong during the period from August 2012 to June 2019. The SNAÏVE/SARIMA model was used as the benchmark model. Additionally, artificial intelligence models including long short-term memory, back propagation neural network, extreme learning machine and random forest models were used to assess the robustness of the results.

The results demonstrate that online review data are subject to noise and bias, which can adversely affect the accuracy of predictions when used directly. However, by identifying helpful online reviews beforehand and incorporating them into the forecasting process, a notable enhancement in predictive performance can be realized.

First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first to focus on the data issue of online reviews on tourism arrivals forecasting. Second, this study pioneers the integration of the consumer decision-making process into the domain of tourism demand forecasting, marking one of the earliest endeavors in this area. Third, this study makes a novel attempt to identify helpful online reviews based on reviews helpfulness analysis.

The tourist industry has to adopt a big data-driven foresight approach to enhance decision-making in a post-COVID international landscape still marked by significant uncertainty and in which some megatrends have the potential to reshape society in the next decades. This paper, considering the opportunity offered by the application of the quantitative analysis on internet new data sources, proposes a prediction method using Google Trends data based on an estimated transfer function model.

The paper uses the time-series methods to model and predict Google Trends data. A transfer function model is used to transform the prediction of Google Trends data into predictions of tourist arrivals. It predicts the United States tourism demand in Italy.

The results highlight the potential expressed by the use of big data-driven foresight approach. Applying a transfer function model on internet search data, timely forecasts of tourism flows are obtained. The two scenarios emerged can be used in tourism stakeholders’ decision-making process. In a future perspective, the methodological path could be applied to other tourism origin markets, to other internet search engine or other socioeconomic and environmental contexts.

The study raises awareness of foresight literacy in the tourism sector. Secondly, it complements the research on tourism demand forecasting by evaluating the performance of quantitative forecasting techniques on new data sources. Thirdly, it is the first paper that makes the United States arrival predictions in Italy. Finally, the findings provide immediate valuable information to tourism stakeholders that could be used to make decisions.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of the conflict in Ukraine led to a sustained downturn in tourist arrivals (TA) in Russia. This paper aims to explore the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR) and other indices on TA over 1995–2023.

We employ a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to analyze the effects, capturing both the positive and negative shocks of these variables on TA.

Our research demonstrates that the NARDL model is more effective in elucidating the complex dynamics between macroeconomic factors and TA. Both an increase and a decrease in GPR lead to an increase in TA. A 1% negative shock in GPR leads to an increase in TA by 1.68%, whereas a 1% positive shock in GPR also leads to an increase in TA by 0.5%. In other words, despite the increase in GPR, the number of tourists coming to Russia increases by 0.5% for every 1% increase in that risk. Several explanations could account for this phenomenon: (1) risk-tolerant tourists: some tourists might be less sensitive to GPR or they might find the associated risks acceptable; (2) economic incentives: increased risk might lead to a depreciation in the local currency and lower costs, making travel to Russia more affordable for international tourists; (3) niche tourism: some tourists might be attracted to destinations experiencing turmoil, either for the thrill or to gain firsthand experience of the situation; (4) lagged effects: there might be a time lag between the increase in risk and the actual impact on tourist behavior, meaning the effects might be observed differently over a longer period.

Our study, employing the NARDL model and utilizing a dataset spanning from 1995 to 2023, investigates the impact of GPR, gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on TA in Russia. This research is unique because the dataset was compiled by the authors. The results show a complex relationship between GPR and TA, indicating that factors influencing TA can be multifaceted and not always intuitive.

The purpose of this paper is to eliminate the fluctuations in train arrival and departure times caused by skewed distributions in interval operation times. These fluctuations arise from random origin and process factors during interval operations and can accumulate over multiple intervals. The aim is to enhance the robustness of high-speed rail station arrival and departure track utilization schemes.

To achieve this objective, the paper simulates actual train operations, incorporating the fluctuations in interval operation times into the utilization of arrival and departure tracks at the station. The Monte Carlo simulation method is adopted to solve this problem. This approach transforms a nonlinear model, which includes constraints from probability distribution functions and is difficult to solve directly, into a linear programming model that is easier to handle. The method then linearly weights two objectives to optimize the solution.

Through the application of Monte Carlo simulation, the study successfully converts the complex nonlinear model with probability distribution function constraints into a manageable linear programming model. By continuously adjusting the weighting coefficients of the linear objectives, the method is able to optimize the Pareto solution. Notably, this approach does not require extensive scene data to obtain a satisfactory Pareto solution set.

The paper contributes to the field by introducing a novel method for optimizing high-speed rail station arrival and departure track utilization in the presence of fluctuations in interval operation times. The use of Monte Carlo simulation to transform the problem into a tractable linear programming model represents a significant advancement. Furthermore, the method’s ability to produce satisfactory Pareto solutions without relying on extensive data sets adds to its practical value and applicability in real-world scenarios.