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This paper aims to simulate vital corrective actions (CAs) affecting system availability through a system dynamics approach based on the results obtained by analyzing the causal relationships among failure modes and effects analysis elements.

A stock and flow diagram has been developed to simulate system behaviors during a timeframe. Some improvement scenarios regarding the most necessary CAs according to their strategic priority and the possibility of eliminating root causes of critical failure modes in a roller-transmission system have been simulated and analyzed to choose the most effective one(s) for the system availability. The proposed approach has been examined in a steel-manufacturing company.

Results indicated the most effective CAs to remove or diminish critical failure causes that led to the less reliability of the system. It illustrated the impacts of the selected CAs on eliminating or decreasing root causes of the critical failure modes, lessening the system’s failure rate and increasing the system availability more effectively.

Results allow managers and decision-makers to consider different maintenance scenarios without wasting time and more cost, choosing the most appropriate option according to system conditions.

This study innovation would be the dynamic analysis of interactions among failure modes, effects and causes over time to predict the system behavior and improve availability by choosing the most effective CAs through improvement scenario simulation via VENSIM software.

This study aims to empirically explore several factors that encourage muzakki (zakat payers) to pay their zakat through institutions by elaborating on their extrinsic and intrinsic motivations as the composite factors regarding the attitude and intention improvement of muzakki. This study specifically studies zakat payment via digital means and categorizes the muzakki groups into two (urban and suburban) to be considered in the results.

Overall, this study gathers the data from 298 muzakki using a partial least squares technique the multigroup analysis to compare the analysis.

This study found that different sociodemographic aspects will result in varied performances of motivation in using technology between the two groups. Furthermore, positive preference aspects, such as muzakki’s attitude, can be a catalyst in improving their motivation to pay zakat through institutions.

The findings of this study can be used as a foundation to improve the technology-based services that will be more accessible and reachable. Provision of technical follow-ups regarding the utilization of technology, including community-based digital platform socializations, availability of online customer service that will respond to muzakki’s needs and synergy between stakeholders, are the primary obligations that a zakat institution must fulfill.

As far as the researchers are concerned, the studies focusing on the motivational factors and attitude of muzakki as an intervention in paying zakat via institutions are limited in numbers, especially studies on digital payment. In this study, however, classifying the groups into two will help gain a deeper understanding of this topic.

In this study, the authors propose a novel digital twinning approach specifically designed for controlling transient thermal systems. The purpose of this study is to harness the combined power of deep learning (DL) and physics-based methods (PBM) to create an active virtual replica of the physical system.

To achieve this goal, we introduce a deep neural network (DNN) as the digital twin and a Finite Element (FE) model as the physical system. This integrated approach is used to address the challenges of controlling an unsteady heat transfer problem with an integrated feedback loop.

The results of our study demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed digital twinning approach in regulating the maximum temperature within the system under varying and unsteady heat flux conditions. The DNN, trained on stationary data, plays a crucial role in determining the heat transfer coefficients necessary to maintain temperatures below a defined threshold value, such as the material’s melting point. The system is successfully controlled in 1D, 2D and 3D case studies. However, careful evaluations should be conducted if such a training approach, based on steady-state data, is applied to completely different transient heat transfer problems.

The present work represents one of the first examples of a comprehensive digital twinning approach to transient thermal systems, driven by data. One of the noteworthy features of this approach is its robustness. Adopting a training based on dimensionless data, the approach can seamlessly accommodate changes in thermal capacity and thermal conductivity without the need for retraining.

This paper introduces a novel method, Variance Rule-based Window Size Tracking (VR-WT), for deriving a sequence of estimation window sizes. This approach not only identifies structural change points but also ascertains the optimal size of the estimation window. VR-WT is designed to achieve accurate model estimation and is versatile enough to be applied across a range of models in various disciplines.

This paper proposes a new method named Variance Rule-based Window size Tracking (VR-WT), which derives a sequence of estimation window sizes. The concept of VR-WT is inspired by the Potential Scale Reduction Factor (PSRF), a tool used to evaluate the convergence and stationarity of MCMC.

Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates that VR-WT accurately detects structural change points and select appropriate window sizes. The VR-WT is essential in applications where accurate estimation of model parameters and inference about their value, sign, and significance are critical. The VR-WT has also helped us understand shifts in parameter-based inference, ensuring stability across periods and highlighting how the timing and impact of market shocks vary across fields and datasets.

The first distinction of the VR-WT lies in its purpose and methodological differences. The VR-WT focuses on precise parameter estimation. By dynamically tracking window sizes, VR-WT selects flexible window sizes and enables the visualization of structural changes. The second distinction of VR-WT lies in its broad applicability and versatility. We conducted empirical applications across three fields of study: CAPM; interdependence analysis between global stock markets; and the study of time-dependent energy prices.

This paper aims to propose a simulation-based performance evaluation model for the drone-based delivery of aid items to disaster-affected areas. The objective of the model is to perform analytical studies, evaluate the performance of drone delivery systems for humanitarian logistics and can support the decision-making on the operational design of the system – on where to locate drone take-off points and on assignment and scheduling of delivery tasks to drones.

This simulation model captures the dynamics and variabilities of the drone-based delivery system, including demand rates, location of demand points, time-dependent parameters and possible failures of drones’ operations. An optimization model integrated with the simulation system can update the optimality of drones’ schedules and delivery assignments.

An extensive set of experiments was performed to evaluate alternative strategies to demonstrate the effectiveness for the proposed optimization/simulation system. In the first set of experiments, the authors use the simulation-based evaluation tool for a case study for Central Florida. The goal of this set of experiments is to show how the proposed system can be used for decision-making and decision-support. The second set of experiments presents a series of numerical studies for a set of randomly generated instances.

The goal is to develop a simulation system that can allow one to evaluate performance of drone-based delivery systems, accounting for the uncertainties through simulations of real-life drone delivery flights. The proposed simulation model captures the variations in different system parameters, including interval of updating the system after receiving new information, demand parameters: the demand rate and their spatial distribution (i.e. their locations), service time parameters: travel times, setup and loading times, payload drop-off times and repair times and drone energy level: battery’s energy is impacted and requires battery change/recharging while flying.

The capability of steel columns to support their design loads is highly affected by the time of exposure and temperature magnitude, which causes deterioration of mechanical properties of steel under fire conditions. It is known that structural steel loses strength and stiffness as temperature increases, particularly above 400 °C. The duration of time in which steel is exposed to high temperatures also has an impact on how much strength it loses. The time-dependent response of steel is critical when estimating load carrying capacity of steel columns exposed to fire. Thus, investigating the structural response of cold-formed steel (CFS) columns is gaining more interest due to the nature of such structural elements.

In this study, experiments were conducted on two CFS configurations: back-to-back (B-B) channel and toe-to-toe (T-T) channel sections. All CFS column specimens were exposed to different temperatures following the standard fire curve and cooled by air or water. A total of 14 tests were conducted to evaluate the capacity of the CFS sections. The axial resistance and yield deformation were noted for both section types at elevated temperatures. The CFS column sections were modelled to simulate the section's behaviour under various temperature exposures using the general-purpose finite element (FE) program ABAQUS. The results from FE modelling agreed well with the experimental results. Ultimate load of experiment and finite element model (FEM) are compared with each other. The difference in percentage and ratio between both are presented.

The results showed that B-B configuration showed better performance for all the investigated parameters than T-T sections. A noticeable loss in the ultimate strength of 34.5 and 65.6% was observed at 90 min (986℃) for B-B specimens cooled using air and water, respectively. However, the reduction was 29.9 and 46% in the T-T configuration, respectively.

This research paper focusses on assessing the buckling strength of heated CFS sections to analyse the mode of failure of CFS sections with B-B and T-T design configurations under the effect of elevated temperature.

This study aims to address the inherent uncertainties within closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) networks through the application of a multi-objective approach, specifically focusing on the optimization of integrated production and transportation processes. The primary purpose is to enhance decision-making in supply chain management by formulating a robust multi-objective model.

In dealing with uncertainty, this study uses Pythagorean fuzzy numbers (PFNs) to effectively represent and quantify uncertainties associated with various parameters within the CLSC network. The proposed model is solved using Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy programming, presenting a comprehensive and innovative methodology designed explicitly for handling uncertainties inherent in CLSC contexts.

The research findings highlight the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed framework for addressing uncertainties within CLSC networks. Through a comparative analysis with other established approaches, the model demonstrates its robustness, showcasing its potential to make informed and resilient decisions in supply chain management.

This study successfully addressed uncertainty in CLSC networks, providing logistics managers with a robust decision-making framework. Emphasizing the importance of PFNs and Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy programming, the research offered practical insights for optimizing transportation routes and resource allocation. Future research could explore dynamic factors in CLSCs, integrate real-time data and leverage emerging technologies for more agile and sustainable supply chain management.

This research contributes significantly to the field by introducing a novel and comprehensive methodology for managing uncertainty in CLSC networks. The adoption of PFNs and Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy programming offers an original and valuable approach to addressing uncertainties, providing practitioners and decision-makers with insights to make informed and resilient decisions in supply chain management.

Organizations working in high-hazard environments contribute significantly to modern society and the economy, not only for the valuable resources they hold but also for the indispensable products and services they provide, such as power generation, transportation and defense weapons. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to develop a framework that outlines future research on systems safety and provides a better understanding of how organizations can effectively manage hazard events.

In this research, we developed the high hazard theory (HHT) and a theoretical framework based on the grounded theory method (GTM) and the integration of three established theoretical perspectives: normal accident theory (NAT), high reliability theory (HRT) and resilience engineering (RE) theory.

We focused on the temporal aspect of accidents to create a timeline showing the progression of hazard events and the factors contributing to safety and hazards in organizations. Given the limitations of the previous theories in providing a coherent explanation of hazard event escalation in high-hazard organizations (HHOs), we argue that the highlighted theories can be more complementary than contradictory regarding their standpoints on disasters and accident prevention.

A proper appreciation of the hazard nature of organizations can help reduce their susceptibility to failure, prevent outages and breakdowns of systems, identify areas for improvement and develop strategies to enhance performance.

By developing HHT, we contribute to systems safety research by developing a new, refined theory and enrich the theoretical debate. We also expand the understanding of scholars and practitioners about the characteristics of organizations working in high-hazard environments.

The study investigates the inter-linkages between geopolitical risk (GPR) and food price (FP).

By employing the bootstrap full- and sub-sample rolling-window Granger causality tests.

The empirical results show that there is a time-varying bidirectional causality between GPR and FP. High GPR leads to a rise in FP, suggesting that geopolitical events usually may disrupt supply and demand conditions in food markets, and even trigger global food crises. However, the negative effect of GPR on FP does not support this view in certain periods. This is mainly because GPR is also related to the global economic situation and oil price, which together have impacts on the food market. These results cannot always be supported by the inter-temporal capital asset pricing model, which states that GPR affects FP in a positive manner. Conversely, there is a positive impact of FP on GPR, indicating that the food market is an effective tool that can reflect global geopolitical environment.

In the context of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, these analyses can assist investors and policymakers to understand the sensitivity of FP to GPR. Also, it will provide significant revelations for governments to attach importance to the role of food price information in predicting geopolitical events, thus contributing to a more stable international environment.

The purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of implementing anti-dumping duties on imported Australian wine to China in the short- and long-run, respectively.

First, the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method is used in this study to evaluate the short-run causal effect of implementing anti-dumping duties on imported Australian wine to China. Second, a Bayesian ensemble method is used to predict 2023–2025 wine exports from Australia to China. The disparity between the forecasts and counterfactual prediction which assumes no anti-dumping duties represents the accumulated impact of the anti-dumping duties in the long run.

The anti-dumping duties resulted in a significant decline in red and rose, white and sparkling wine exports to China by 92.59%, 99.06% and 90.06%, respectively, in 2021. In the long run, wine exports to China are projected to continue this downward trend, with an average annual growth rate of −21.92%, −38.90% and −9.54% for the three types of wine, respectively. In contrast, the counterfactual prediction indicates an increase of 3.20%, 20.37% and 4.55% for the respective categories. Consequently, the policy intervention is expected to result in a decrease of 96.11%, 93.15% and 84.11% in red and rose, white and sparkling wine exports to China from 2021 to 2025.

The originality of this study lies in the creation of an economic paradigm for assessing policy impacts within the realm of wine economics. Methodologically, it also represents the pioneering application of the DID and Bayesian ensemble forecasting methods within the field of wine economics.