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The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics in inflation-chaotic African countries for the period of 1987-2010.Although in developed economies, changes in monetary policy affect real economic activity in the short-run, but only prices in the long-run, the question of whether these tendencies apply to developing countries remains open to debate.

Vector autoregresion (VARs) within the frameworks of Vector Error Correction Models and simple Granger causality models are used to estimate the long- and short-run effects, respectively. A battery of robustness checks are also used to ensure consistency in the specifications and results.

The tested hypotheses are valid under monetary policy independence and dependence, except few exceptions. H1: Monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. For the first-half (long-run dimension) of the hypothesis, permanent changes in monetary policy variables (depth, efficiency, activity and size) affect permanent variations in prices in the long-term. But in cases of disequilibriums, only financial dynamic fundamentals of depth and size significantly adjust inflation to the cointegration relations. With respect to the second-half (short-run view) of the hypothesis, monetary policy does not overwhelmingly affect prices in the short-term. Hence, but for a thin exception, H1 is valid. H2: Monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-term. With regard to the short-term dimension of the hypothesis, only financial dynamics of depth and size affect real gross domestic product output in the short-run. As concerns the long-run dimension, the neutrality of monetary policy has been confirmed. Hence, the hypothesis is also broadly valid.

A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles, credit expansions and inflationary tendencies, inflation targeting and monetary policy independence implications. Country-/regional-specific implications, the manner in which the findings reconcile the ongoing debate, measures for fighting surplus liquidity and caveats and future research directions are also discussed.

By using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics (that broadly reflect monetary policy), we provide significant contributions to the empirics of money. The conclusion of the analysis is a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate on how money matters as an instrument of economic activity in developing countries.

This paper aims at analyzing the asymmetries created by the Great Recession in the US real estate sector.

This paper uses a Markov-switching dynamic regression model in which parameters change when the housing market moves from one regime to the other.

The results show that the effect of real estate loans, interest rate, quantitative easing and working age population are asymmetric across bull and bear regimes. It is also found that the estimated parameters are larger in bull regime than bear regime, indicating a tendency to create house price bubbles in bull market.

Since three of those asymmetric variables (real estate loans, interest rate and quantitative easing) are related to monetary policy, the Fed can mitigate their impact on an interest-sensitive sector such as housing by engaging in a countercyclical monetary policy.

The estimated intercept and the variance parameter both vary from one regime to the other, thus justifying the use of a regime-dependent model.

A major lesson of the European Monetary Union crisis is that serious disequilibria in a monetary union result from arrangements not designed to be robust to a variety of shocks. With the specter of this crisis looming substantially and scarring existing monetary zones, the purpose of this paper is to complement existing literature by analyzing the effects of monetary policy on economic activity (output and prices) in the CEMAC and UEMOA CFA franc zones.

VARs within the frameworks of Vector Error-Correction Models and Granger causality models are used to estimate the long- and short-run effects, respectively. Impulse response functions are further used to assess the tendencies of significant Granger causality findings. A battery of robustness checks are also employed to ensure consistency in the specifications and results.

–H1. monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run in the CFA zones (broadly untrue). This invalidity is more pronounced in CEMAC (relative to all monetary policy variables) than in UEMOA (with regard to financial dynamics of activity and size). H2. monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-run in the CFA zones. First, the absence of cointegration among real output and the monetary policy variables in both zones confirm the neutrality of money in the long term. With the exception of overall money supply, the significant effect of money on output in the short-run is more relevant in the UEMOA zone, than in the CEMAC zone in which only financial system efficiency and financial activity are significant.

First, compared to the CEMAC region, the UEMOA zone’s monetary authority has more policy instruments for offsetting output shocks but fewer instruments for the management of short-run inflation. Second, the CEMAC region is more inclined to non-traditional policy regimes while the UEMOA zone dances more to the tune of traditional discretionary monetary policy arrangements. A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: implications for the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles; implications for credit expansions and inflationary tendencies; implications of the findings to the ongoing debate; country-specific implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity.

The paper’s originality is reflected by the use of monetary policy variables, notably money supply, bank and financial credits, which have not been previously used, to investigate their impact on the outputs of economic activities, namely, real GDP output and inflation, in developing country monetary unions.

The control of particularly virulent communicable diseases such as COVID-19 can be considered a global public good. Unabated contagion, both within and across borders, can result in a global public bad. More effective control – such as by flattening the epidemiological curve – could prevent severe social and economic disruption by allowing domestic health and social protection systems to more adequately respond to the health crisis. This article elaborates on some of the main elements of counter COVID-19 responses, drawing on emerging international good practices. While a full evaluation of policy effectiveness is still forthcoming, it is critical to review and synthesize the emerging lessons and evidence even this early.

This article reviews the international good practices in counter COVID-19 responses across countries.

Concerted efforts across borders, such as by sharing data and collaborating in research and by coordinating international support for countercyclical economic and health responses at the national level, are some of the options for countering COVID-19 at the international level. Within countries, more inclusive social protection and health systems, combined with countercyclical economic policies, and concerted behavioral changes tend to produce more effective collective action against the spread of the disease.

This study is based on a review of emerging responses to the health crisis.

The policies and practices reviewed in this paper could feed into better-informed crisis responses to COVID-19 and other types of health shocks.

This study is among the first general reviews of policy responses to the COVID-19 health crisis.

This paper aims to address a growing empirical literature which measures the size of the fiscal multiplier at the state and local levels. This literature generally fails to consider the reaction function of the central bank, which typically should be expected to offset local increases in spending by reducing it elsewhere in the currency area. This is true under rather orthodox assumptions, such as an inflation targeting central bank meeting its target.

The author reviews prominent examples of the literature and establishes the extent to which the empirical methodology avoids the issue he raises. Subsequently, the author discusses its importance.

Certain papers in the literature, especially Nakamura and Steinsson (2014), are careful about the issue. Most papers reviewed, however, are not.

There are severe limitations to papers using these methodologies. They are either contingent on very specific assumptions regarding central banks or lack policy relevance. Earlier methodologies, such as vector autoregression and the “narrative” method, deserve higher relative credence among methodologies applied to studying the size of the fiscal multiplier.

The current literature either entirely ignores the issue raised here or it is very briefly brushed aside. Considering the orthodoxy of the assumptions, at the very least, the issue deserves far greater recognition in the future. It may demand a broader re-evaluation of the family of methods.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the proposed eco currency union has sufficient business cycle synchronization among its members to avoid problems such as those experienced in the last several years by countries in the eurozone. This monetary union would potentially include 18 countries – Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo – which collectively have a GDP of over 744 billion dollars and a population of over 300 million people.

The authors will apply some recently created econometric tools that were developed specifically to investigate business cycle synchronization in the eurozone. These tools – denoted synchronicity and similarity – overcome some of the limitations of previous studies which have used vector autoregressions and suffered simultaneity bias as a result.

The different measures employed suggest that the potential members of the eco exhibit a very low level of synchronization. Nigeria in particular, which is heavily dependent on oil, as are some, but not all potential members, would be the largest member, and exhibits a very low level of synchronization with other prospective eco member nations. Finally, preliminary evidence from several countries which have joined the existing African currency unions does not indicate that the act of joining a currency union improves synchronization, and this result contradicts the “endogenous optimal currency area” hypothesis.

Like previous studies on the topic, the authors rely on the available data. The number of observations is more limited than would be optimal.

The results would strongly caution against the creation of the eco currency union, as members appear even less ready for monetary integration than countries in the eurozone did.

This is the first study to apply the synchronicity and similarity tools to the prospective West African eco nations.

This article examines the macroeconomic impact of a consumption‐based value‐added tax (VAT) using simulations of a large‐scale model. The VAT is imposed as a structural reform of the tax code rather than as a revenue‐raising device, i.e., the revenues from the VAT are offset by compensatory reductions elsewhere. Three basic scenarios are examined, in which 1) the VAT is offset by individual rate reductions, 2) abolition of the corporate profits tax in conjunction with a small individual rate cut, and 3) an investment tax credit with the balance of the revenues offset by a personal rate cut. Additionally, this paper examines the effects of the microeconomic incidence of the VAT, i.e., whether it is fully passed through to output prices or shifted back onto profits. The finding is that the VAT in general raises the long‐term level of output, but at the cost of initial output losses, which are in evidence even when the associated rise in the price level is accommodated by a corresponding shift in monetary policy. In addition to changes in the intertemporal distribution of growth, there are significant changes in the composition of GNP, which shifts away from consumption, toward business fixed investment and net exports. These changes are particularly pronounced when the VAT is fully passed through. When the tax is partially shifted back, the gains in investment and trade are less marked, while business profits are reduced, and the long‐term increase in output is smaller.

This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and novelty is to shed light on the non-linear and asymmetric characteristics of dependence, causality, and contagion within various time and frequency domains. Specifically, the authors scrutinize how financial instability in the U.S. and EU interacts with their respective green stock markets, while also examining the cross-impact on each other's green equity markets. The analysis is carried out over short-, medium- and long-term horizons and under different market conditions, ranging from bearish and normal to bullish.

This study breaks new ground by employing a model-free and non-parametric approach to examine the relationship between the instability of the global financial system and the green equity market performance in the U.S. and EU. This study's methodology offers new insights into the time- and frequency-varying relationship, using wavelet coherence supplemented with quantile causality and quantile-on-quantile regression analyses. This advanced approach unveils non-linear and asymmetric causal links and characterizes their signs, effectively distinguishing between bearish, normal, and bullish market conditions, as well as short-, medium- and long-term horizons.

This study's findings reveal that financial instability has a strong negative impact on the green stock market over the medium to long term, in bullish market conditions and in times of economic and extra-economic turbulence. This implies that green stocks cannot be an effective hedge against systemic financial risk during periods of turbulence and euphoria. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that U.S. financial instability not only affects the U.S. green equity market, but also has significant spillover effects on the EU market and vice versa, indicating the existence of a Euro-American contagion mechanism. Interestingly, this study's results also reveal a positive correlation between financial instability and green equity market performance under normal market conditions, suggesting a possible feedback loop effect.

This study represents pioneering work in exploring the non-linear and asymmetric connections between financial instability and the Euro-American stock markets. Notably, it discerns how these interactions vary over the short, medium, and long term and under different market conditions, including bearish, normal, and bullish states. Understanding these characteristics is instrumental in shaping effective policies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including access to clean, affordable energy (SDG 7), and to preserve the stability of the international financial system.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Sri Lanka, in order to examine the validity of the semi‐strong form of the efficient market hypothesis.

The paper adopts unit roots and cointegration, error‐correction modelling, variance decomposition analysis, and impulse responses analysis to examine the causal relationship between six macroeconomic variables.

The results indicate that there are both short and long‐run causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables. These findings refute the validity of the semi‐strong version of the efficient market hypothesis for the Sri Lankan share market and have implications for investors, both domestic and international.

The paper addresses several methodological weaknesses in relation to unit root and cointegration tests which previous studies in the area of the paper have overlooked. Further, it uses more variables than those used in a previous study using Sri Lankan data.

For over two decades numerous studies have provided evidence on the predictive ability of the yield spread for real economic growth. While all this large literature has focussed on how well the spread helps predict real activity, none of these has given an answer on why the spread predicts. The purpose of this paper is to deal with this issue by trying to find an answer on the reason and the economic conditions under which the spread proves to be so powerful predictor of economic activity.

The authors examine whether the explanation of spread’s predictive ability lies behind interest rate volatility supposing that the economy oscillates between high- and low-volatility regimes. For this reason the authors nest GARCH models into Markov regime switching models.

When the authors assume that the economy simply oscillates between different regimes, interest rate volatility does not explain the spread’s predictive ability. However, the authors obtain a very interesting result when the authors augment the conditional variance with a level effects term. This ensures that in an environment with high levels of interest rates – in which the rational agents expect the economy to slow down – there is a greater possibility for the economy to switch to a high-volatility regime. Under these economic conditions, interest rate volatility appears to be the reason of spread’s predictive power from one up to three years.

This study contributes to the relevant literature by providing an explanation on the reason and the economic conditions under which the spread proves to be so powerful predictor of economic activity.