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1 – 10 of 20Abdulmohsen S. Almohsen, Naif M. Alsanabani, Abdullah M. Alsugair and Khalid S. Al-Gahtani
The variance between the winning bid and the owner's estimated cost (OEC) is one of the construction management risks in the pre-tendering phase. The study aims to enhance the…
Abstract
Purpose
The variance between the winning bid and the owner's estimated cost (OEC) is one of the construction management risks in the pre-tendering phase. The study aims to enhance the quality of the owner's estimation for predicting precisely the contract cost at the pre-tendering phase and avoiding future issues that arise through the construction phase.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper integrated artificial neural networks (ANN), deep neural networks (DNN) and time series (TS) techniques to estimate the ratio of a low bid to the OEC (R) for different size contracts and three types of contracts (building, electric and mechanic) accurately based on 94 contracts from King Saud University. The ANN and DNN models were evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean sum square error (MSSE) and root mean sums square error (RMSSE).
Findings
The main finding is that the ANN provides high accuracy with MAPE, MSSE and RMSSE a 2.94%, 0.0015 and 0.039, respectively. The DNN's precision was high, with an RMSSE of 0.15 on average.
Practical implications
The owner and consultant are expected to use the study's findings to create more accuracy of the owner's estimate and decrease the difference between the owner's estimate and the lowest submitted offer for better decision-making.
Originality/value
This study fills the knowledge gap by developing an ANN model to handle missing TS data and forecasting the difference between a low bid and an OEC at the pre-tendering phase.
Luís Jacques de Sousa, João Poças Martins, Luís Sanhudo and João Santos Baptista
This study aims to review recent advances towards the implementation of ANN and NLP applications during the budgeting phase of the construction process. During this phase…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to review recent advances towards the implementation of ANN and NLP applications during the budgeting phase of the construction process. During this phase, construction companies must assess the scope of each task and map the client’s expectations to an internal database of tasks, resources and costs. Quantity surveyors carry out this assessment manually with little to no computer aid, within very austere time constraints, even though these results determine the company’s bid quality and are contractually binding.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper seeks to compile applications of machine learning (ML) and natural language processing in the architectural engineering and construction sector to find which methodologies can assist this assessment. The paper carries out a systematic literature review, following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses guidelines, to survey the main scientific contributions within the topic of text classification (TC) for budgeting in construction.
Findings
This work concludes that it is necessary to develop data sets that represent the variety of tasks in construction, achieve higher accuracy algorithms, widen the scope of their application and reduce the need for expert validation of the results. Although full automation is not within reach in the short term, TC algorithms can provide helpful support tools.
Originality/value
Given the increasing interest in ML for construction and recent developments, the findings disclosed in this paper contribute to the body of knowledge, provide a more automated perspective on budgeting in construction and break ground for further implementation of text-based ML in budgeting for construction.
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Luís Jacques de Sousa, João Poças Martins and Luís Sanhudo
Factors like bid price, submission time, and number of bidders influence the procurement process in public projects. These factors and the award criteria may impact the project’s…
Abstract
Purpose
Factors like bid price, submission time, and number of bidders influence the procurement process in public projects. These factors and the award criteria may impact the project’s financial compliance. Predicting budget compliance in construction projects has been traditionally challenging, but Machine Learning (ML) techniques have revolutionised estimations.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, Portuguese Public Procurement Data (PPPData) was utilised as the model’s input. Notably, this dataset exhibited a substantial imbalance in the target feature. To address this issue, the study evaluated three distinct data balancing techniques: oversampling, undersampling, and the SMOTE method. Next, a comprehensive feature selection process was conducted, leading to the testing of five different algorithms for forecasting budget compliance. Finally, a secondary test was conducted, refining the features to include only those elements that procurement technicians can modify while also considering the two most accurate predictors identified in the previous test.
Findings
The findings indicate that employing the SMOTE method on the scraped data can achieve a balanced dataset. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the Adam ANN algorithm outperformed others, boasting a precision rate of 68.1%.
Practical implications
The model can aid procurement technicians during the tendering phase by using historical data and analogous projects to predict performance.
Social implications
Although the study reveals that ML algorithms cannot accurately predict budget compliance using procurement data, they can still provide project owners with insights into the most suitable criteria, aiding decision-making. Further research should assess the model’s impact and capacity within the procurement workflow.
Originality/value
Previous research predominantly focused on forecasting budgets by leveraging data from the private construction execution phase. While some investigations incorporated procurement data, this study distinguishes itself by using an imbalanced dataset and anticipating compliance rather than predicting budgetary figures. The model predicts budget compliance by analysing qualitative and quantitative characteristics of public project contracts. The research paper explores various model architectures and data treatment techniques to develop a model to assist the Client in tender definition.
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Armando Calabrese, Antonio D'Uffizi, Nathan Levialdi Ghiron, Luca Berloco, Elaheh Pourabbas and Nathan Proudlove
The primary objective of this paper is to show a systematic and methodological approach for the digitalization of critical clinical pathways (CPs) within the healthcare domain.
Abstract
Purpose
The primary objective of this paper is to show a systematic and methodological approach for the digitalization of critical clinical pathways (CPs) within the healthcare domain.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology entails the integration of service design (SD) and action research (AR) methodologies, characterized by iterative phases that systematically alternate between action and reflective processes, fostering cycles of change and learning. Within this framework, stakeholders are engaged through semi-structured interviews, while the existing and envisioned processes are delineated and represented using BPMN 2.0. These methodological steps emphasize the development of an autonomous, patient-centric web application alongside the implementation of an adaptable and patient-oriented scheduling system. Also, business processes simulation is employed to measure key performance indicators of processes and test for potential improvements. This method is implemented in the context of the CP addressing transient loss of consciousness (TLOC), within a publicly funded hospital setting.
Findings
The methodology integrating SD and AR enables the detection of pivotal bottlenecks within diagnostic CPs and proposes optimal corrective measures to ensure uninterrupted patient care, all the while advancing the digitalization of diagnostic CP management. This study contributes to theoretical discussions by emphasizing the criticality of process optimization, the transformative potential of digitalization in healthcare and the paramount importance of user-centric design principles, and offers valuable insights into healthcare management implications.
Originality/value
The study’s relevance lies in its ability to enhance healthcare practices without necessitating disruptive and resource-intensive process overhauls. This pragmatic approach aligns with the imperative for healthcare organizations to improve their operations efficiently and cost-effectively, making the study’s findings relevant.
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Nicola Castellano, Roberto Del Gobbo and Lorenzo Leto
The concept of productivity is central to performance management and decision-making, although it is complex and multifaceted. This paper aims to describe a methodology based on…
Abstract
Purpose
The concept of productivity is central to performance management and decision-making, although it is complex and multifaceted. This paper aims to describe a methodology based on the use of Big Data in a cluster analysis combined with a data envelopment analysis (DEA) that provides accurate and reliable productivity measures in a large network of retailers.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology is described using a case study of a leading kitchen furniture producer. More specifically, Big Data is used in a two-step analysis prior to the DEA to automatically cluster a large number of retailers into groups that are homogeneous in terms of structural and environmental factors and assess a within-the-group level of productivity of the retailers.
Findings
The proposed methodology helps reduce the heterogeneity among the units analysed, which is a major concern in DEA applications. The data-driven factorial and clustering technique allows for maximum within-group homogeneity and between-group heterogeneity by reducing subjective bias and dimensionality, which is embedded with the use of Big Data.
Practical implications
The use of Big Data in clustering applied to productivity analysis can provide managers with data-driven information about the structural and socio-economic characteristics of retailers' catchment areas, which is important in establishing potential productivity performance and optimizing resource allocation. The improved productivity indexes enable the setting of targets that are coherent with retailers' potential, which increases motivation and commitment.
Originality/value
This article proposes an innovative technique to enhance the accuracy of productivity measures through the use of Big Data clustering and DEA. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no attempts have been made to benefit from the use of Big Data in the literature on retail store productivity.
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Emmanuel Dele Omopariola, Abimbola Olukemi Windapo, David John Edwards, Clinton Ohis Aigbavboa, Sunday Ukwe-Nya Yakubu and Onimisi Obari
Previous studies have postulated that an advance payment system (APS) positively impacts the contractor's working capital and is paramount to ensuring an efficient and effective…
Abstract
Purpose
Previous studies have postulated that an advance payment system (APS) positively impacts the contractor's working capital and is paramount to ensuring an efficient and effective project cash flow process. However, scant research has been undertaken to empirically establish the cash flow performance and domino effect of APS on project and organisational performance.
Design/methodology/approach
The epistemological design adopted a positivist philosophical stance augmented by deductive reasoning to explore the phenomena under investigation. Primary quantitative data were collected from 504 Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB) registered contractors (within the grade bandings 1–9) in South Africa. A five-point Likert scale was utilised, and subsequent data accrued were analysed using structural equation modelling (SEM).
Findings
Emergent findings reveal that the mandatory use of an APS does not guarantee a positive project cash flow, an improvement in organisational performance or an improvement in project performance.
Practical implications
The ensuing discussion reveals the contributory influence of APS on positive cash flow and organisational performance, although APS implementation alone will not achieve these objectives. Practically, the research accentuates the need for various measures to be concurrently adopted (including APS) towards ensuring a positive project cash flow and improved organisational and project performance.
Originality/value
There is limited empirical research on cash flow performance and the domino effect of APS on project and organisational performance in South Africa, nor indeed, the wider geographical location of Africa as a continent. This study addresses this gap in the prevailing body of knowledge.
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Joseph Nockels, Paul Gooding and Melissa Terras
This paper focuses on image-to-text manuscript processing through Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR), a Machine Learning (ML) approach enabled by Artificial Intelligence (AI)…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper focuses on image-to-text manuscript processing through Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR), a Machine Learning (ML) approach enabled by Artificial Intelligence (AI). With HTR now achieving high levels of accuracy, we consider its potential impact on our near-future information environment and knowledge of the past.
Design/methodology/approach
In undertaking a more constructivist analysis, we identified gaps in the current literature through a Grounded Theory Method (GTM). This guided an iterative process of concept mapping through writing sprints in workshop settings. We identified, explored and confirmed themes through group discussion and a further interrogation of relevant literature, until reaching saturation.
Findings
Catalogued as part of our GTM, 120 published texts underpin this paper. We found that HTR facilitates accurate transcription and dataset cleaning, while facilitating access to a variety of historical material. HTR contributes to a virtuous cycle of dataset production and can inform the development of online cataloguing. However, current limitations include dependency on digitisation pipelines, potential archival history omission and entrenchment of bias. We also cite near-future HTR considerations. These include encouraging open access, integrating advanced AI processes and metadata extraction; legal and moral issues surrounding copyright and data ethics; crediting individuals’ transcription contributions and HTR’s environmental costs.
Originality/value
Our research produces a set of best practice recommendations for researchers, data providers and memory institutions, surrounding HTR use. This forms an initial, though not comprehensive, blueprint for directing future HTR research. In pursuing this, the narrative that HTR’s speed and efficiency will simply transform scholarship in archives is deconstructed.
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Cosimo Magazzino and Fabio Gaetano Santeramo
In this paper, the heterogeneity of the linkages among financial development, productivity and growth across income groups is emphasized.
Abstract
Purpose
In this paper, the heterogeneity of the linkages among financial development, productivity and growth across income groups is emphasized.
Design/methodology/approach
An empirical analysis is conducted with an illustrative sample of 130 economies over the period 1991–2019 and classified into four subsamples: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), developing, least developed and net food importing developing countries. Forecast error variance decompositions and panel vector auto-regressive estimations are computed, with insightful findings.
Findings
Higher levels of output stimulate the economic development in the agricultural sector, mainly via the productivity channel and, in the most developed economies, also through access to credit. Differently, in developing and least developed economies, the role of access to credit is marginal. The findings have practical implications for stakeholders involved in the planning of long-run investments. In less developed economies, priorities should be given to investments in technology and innovation, whereas financial markets are more suited to boost the development of the agricultural sector of developed economies.
Originality/value
The authors conclude on the credit–output–productivity nexus and contribute to the literature in (at least) three ways. First, they assess how credit access, agricultural output and agricultural productivity are jointly determined. Second, they use a novel approach, which departs from most of the case studies based on single-country data. Third, they conclude on potential causality links to conclude on policy implications.
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Serena Summa, Alex Mircoli, Domenico Potena, Giulia Ulpiani, Claudia Diamantini and Costanzo Di Perna
Nearly 75% of EU buildings are not energy-efficient enough to meet the international climate goals, which triggers the need to develop sustainable construction techniques with…
Abstract
Purpose
Nearly 75% of EU buildings are not energy-efficient enough to meet the international climate goals, which triggers the need to develop sustainable construction techniques with high degree of resilience against climate change. In this context, a promising construction technique is represented by ventilated façades (VFs). This paper aims to propose three different VFs and the authors define a novel machine learning-based approach to evaluate and predict their energy performance under different boundary conditions, without the need for expensive on-site experimentations
Design/methodology/approach
The approach is based on the use of machine learning algorithms for the evaluation of different VF configurations and allows for the prediction of the temperatures in the cavities and of the heat fluxes. The authors trained different regression algorithms and obtained low prediction errors, in particular for temperatures. The authors used such models to simulate the thermo-physical behavior of the VFs and determined the most energy-efficient design variant.
Findings
The authors found that regression trees allow for an accurate simulation of the thermal behavior of VFs. The authors also studied feature weights to determine the most relevant thermo-physical parameters. Finally, the authors determined the best design variant and the optimal air velocity in the cavity.
Originality/value
This study is unique in four main aspects: the thermo-dynamic analysis is performed under different thermal masses, positions of the cavity and geometries; the VFs are mated with a controlled ventilation system, used to parameterize the thermodynamic behavior under stepwise variations of the air inflow; temperatures and heat fluxes are predicted through machine learning models; the best configuration is determined through simulations, with no onerous in situ experimentations needed.
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This paper reviews recent research on the expected economic effects of developing artificial intelligence (AI) through a survey of the latest publications, in particular papers…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper reviews recent research on the expected economic effects of developing artificial intelligence (AI) through a survey of the latest publications, in particular papers and reports issued by academics, consulting companies and think tanks.
Design/methodology/approach
Our paper represents a point of view on AI and its impact on the global economy. It represents a descriptive analysis of the AI phenomenon.
Findings
AI represents a driver of productivity and economic growth. It can increase efficiency and significantly improve the decision-making process by analyzing large amounts of data, yet at the same time it creates equally serious risks of job market polarization, rising inequality, structural unemployment and the emergence of new undesirable industrial structures.
Practical implications
This paper presents itself as a building block for further research by introducing the two main factors in the production function (Cobb-Douglas): labor and capital. Indeed, Zeira (1998) and Aghion, Jones and Jones (2017) suggested that AI can stimulate growth by replacing labor, which is a limited resource, with capital, an unlimited resource, both for the production of goods, services and ideas.
Originality/value
Our study contributes to the previous literature and presents a descriptive analysis of the impact of AI on technological development, economic growth and employment.
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