Books and journals Case studies Expert Briefings Open Access
Advanced search

A regression discontinuity evaluation of reducing early retirement eligibility in Poland

Oliwia Komada (FAME|GRAPE, Warszawa, Poland) (SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland)
Pawel Strzelecki (SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland) (National Bank of Poland, Warsaw, Poland)
Joanna Tyrowicz (FAME|GRAPE, Warszawa, Poland) (University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland) (IAAEU, Trier, Germany) (IZA, Bonn, Germany)

International Journal of Manpower

ISSN: 0143-7720

Publication date: 7 May 2019

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to isolate and evaluate the causal effect of the changes in eligibility criteria on labor force participation (LFP) and exit to retirement of the cohorts affected by the reform that canceled most of the early pensions in Poland in 2009. At the individual level the reform created a huge discontinuity in treatment of different generations.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors rely on Polish Labor Force Survey and employ regression discontinuity design to evaluate the change in participation subsequent to the eligibility reform among the treated cohorts.

Findings

The authors find a statistically significant, but economically small discontinuity at the timing of the reform. The placebo test shows no similar effects in earlier or later quarters. Yet, the pure treatment effects are insignificant in vast majority of the specifications.

Research limitations/implications

There are some limitations of the data used in the research. It does not cover total population and some panel attrition can be expected. Authors also needed to cope with the lack of required details in survey questions. The main limitation of the method lies in the measurement of the immediate (short-term) effects while in many cases people require more time that 1–2 quarters for the decision after policy change.

Practical implications

The reduction of outflows to retirement was much less pronounced than could have been expected, largely due to already relatively lower propensity to retire early.

Social implications

There are two main policy implications of the study. First, constraining the pension eligibility criteria for retirement are frequently opposed by social actors. It is often considered that early retirement is a privilege – awarded on a basis of occupation or even simply employment in an industry. In many countries – e.g. France, Italy, Germany – attempts to make the eligibility criteria more strict resulted in general strikes and Poland was no exception from this rule. If treatment effects of the large and radical eligibility reform are small in participation rates and pension take-up rates, then immediate fiscal effects are bound to be small as well, even if in the desirable direction. This may explain why – given the strong social resistance – in many countries eligibility reforms are delayed or narrowed in scope. Second, the economic rationale for strong social resistance to eligibility reforms builds on assuming either a relatively high valuation of leisure time after exiting the labor market or a relatively high subjective valuation of the unemployment risk after passing the early retirement age threshold. If leisure preference is overstated, reducing eligibility may be opposed as such, but eligibility alone is irrelevant for household decision making. Meanwhile, unemployment risk may be mitigated via alternative instruments, such as employment protection legislation, as is the case in Poland. Depending on a specific composition of the two factors in a given country, the effects of the eligibility reforms may be as high as in Switzerland or as low as in Poland.

Originality/value

First, the authors provide an analysis of discontinuities in transitions from activity to retirement, rather than focusing on the labor market status. The panel dimension of the data permits to observe directly the flows into retirement/inactivity, controlling for age and birth cohort. Second, the authors complement a pure discontinuity in cohort analysis with a fuzzy design, because in addition to age eligibility the authors also analyze the effects of changes in occupational eligibility. Third, the authors provide a benchmark for the estimates in the actual quarter of the reform by a series of placebo and conditional specifications. This allows to evaluate the (immediate) size and heterogeneity of the treatment effects. The authors find small effects of age eligibility reduction and effectively no effects of occupational eligibility. Hence, increased LFP of the elderly, observed even prior to the reform, seems to be driven by factors unrelated to early pension eligibility.

Keywords

  • Poland
  • Regression discontinuity
  • Retirement age
  • Early retirement
  • J14
  • J26

Acknowledgements

Authors are grateful to Patrick Puhani, Piotr Lewandowski, Michal Gradzewicz and Krzysztof Makarski for valuable comments. The authors also gained greatly from discussing the paper with the participants of the “Aging and labor markets” workshop organized by Institute for Structural Research (IBS), IZA/World Bank 2015 Conference, ESPE 2015, WIEM 2016, seminars at NBP, Warsaw School of Economics and University of Warsaw. Oliwia Komada gratefully acknowledges the support of IBS Small Grant for Research Paper with the “Jobs and Development Network” program. Pawel Strzelecki and Joanna Tyrowicz thank for the support of the National Science Centre (Grant No. UMO-2014/13/B/HS4/03643 for PS and Grant No. UMO-2014/15/G/HS4/04638 for JT). All opinions expressed are those of the authors and have not been endorsed by NSC nor NBP. The remaining errors are ours. Stata code available at: http://grape.org.pl/article/rdd-retirement-Poland

Citation

Komada, O., Strzelecki, P. and Tyrowicz, J. (2019), "A regression discontinuity evaluation of reducing early retirement eligibility in Poland", International Journal of Manpower, Vol. 40 No. 2, pp. 286-303. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJM-08-2017-0186

Download as .RIS

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2019, Emerald Publishing Limited

Please note you do not have access to teaching notes

You may be able to access teaching notes by logging in via Shibboleth, Open Athens or with your Emerald account.
Login
If you think you should have access to this content, click the button to contact our support team.
Contact us

To read the full version of this content please select one of the options below

You may be able to access this content by logging in via Shibboleth, Open Athens or with your Emerald account.
Login
To rent this content from Deepdyve, please click the button.
Rent from Deepdyve
If you think you should have access to this content, click the button to contact our support team.
Contact us
Emerald Publishing
  • Opens in new window
  • Opens in new window
  • Opens in new window
  • Opens in new window
© 2021 Emerald Publishing Limited

Services

  • Authors Opens in new window
  • Editors Opens in new window
  • Librarians Opens in new window
  • Researchers Opens in new window
  • Reviewers Opens in new window

About

  • About Emerald Opens in new window
  • Working for Emerald Opens in new window
  • Contact us Opens in new window
  • Publication sitemap

Policies and information

  • Privacy notice
  • Site policies
  • Modern Slavery Act Opens in new window
  • Chair of Trustees governance statement Opens in new window
  • COVID-19 policy Opens in new window
Manage cookies

We’re listening — tell us what you think

  • Something didn’t work…

    Report bugs here

  • All feedback is valuable

    Please share your general feedback

  • Member of Emerald Engage?

    You can join in the discussion by joining the community or logging in here.
    You can also find out more about Emerald Engage.

Join us on our journey

  • Platform update page

    Visit emeraldpublishing.com/platformupdate to discover the latest news and updates

  • Questions & More Information

    Answers to the most commonly asked questions here