Index

Prince Boateng (Koforidua Technical University, Koforidua, Ghana)
Zhen Chen (University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK)
Stephen O. Ogunlana (Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK)

Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation

ISBN: 978-1-78635-831-8, eISBN: 978-1-78635-830-1

Publication date: 26 April 2017

This content is currently only available as a PDF

Citation

Boateng, P., Chen, Z. and Ogunlana, S.O. (2017), "Index", Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation, Emerald Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp. 327-334. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-78635-831-820171011

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2017 Emerald Publishing Limited


INDEX

Analytic network process (ANP)
, 1–2, 5–7, 9, 11–12, 47–52, 58, 77–78, 82, 85, 89–90, 92–93, 95, 110, 119, 128, 131, 184, 195, 198, 204, 207, 214, 219, 221, 224, 226–227, 229, 231–232, 255

consistency test
, 52–55

model structure development
, 50–51

pairwise comparison
, 52

Behaviour mode sensitivity analysis
, 260, 274–280

Big Dig project
, 2, 45

Bilfinger Berger and Siemens (BBS)
, 17, 26, 28

Bilfinger Berger Civil UK Ltd
, 16

Boundary adequacy
, 219, 255, 257, 280

Causality of technical uncertainties
, 133, 134

Causal loop diagram (CLD)
, 57–58, 131, 165, 284

economic risks system
, 151, 152

environmental risks system
, 155

political risks system
, 160

social risks system
, 141, 142

STEEP risks system
, 132

technical risks system
, 145, 147

Causal tree diagram
, 145

economic risks model
, 153

environmental risks model
, 158

political risks model
, 163

political risks system
, 160

social risks model
, 144

technical risks model
, 149

technical uncertainties
, 133, 134

Completion risks
, 67–68

Computerised model verification
, 252

Conceptual model validation
, 252

Consistency index (CI)
, 53

calculation
, 54

Consistency ratio (CR)
, 52–53, 119, 123–124

calculation
, 54

Consistency test
, 52, 54, 119–124, 184

Cost overrun
, 2, 35, 44–45, 145, 157, 168, 198

Criterion cluster
, 51

Danish Great Belt rail tunnel
, 45

Data validity

ETN project
, 220

Decision-making

megaproject management
, 1–2

Delays
, 43

mega construction projects
, 44

in SD models
, 57

in the tram works
, 29

Deriving priorities for risks ratings
, 120

Dimensional consistency
, 184, 219, 257

Disaggregation of dynamic simulation models
, 282, 283

Dynamic risks assessment in megaproject, framework for
, 225

Dynamic simulation models, validation of
, 216, 250

Dynamic simulations
, 184, 184–216, 250

economic risks system model
, 203, 206–207, 208–209

environmental risks system model
, 207, 209–210, 211–212

political risks system model
, 210, 212, 214–217

social risks system model
, 196, 197–199, 199, 202

technical risks system model
, 198, 201, 203, 205–206

Economic risks
, 64, 148, 152, 153, 168, 203

completion risks
, 67–68

market risk
, 68

in megaprojects
, 69

Economic risks system
, 148–154

ANP inputs
, 195

causalities, for stock variables
, 153–154

causal loop diagram for
, 151, 152

dynamic simulation results and discussion
, 203, 207, 208–209

evaluation tests for
, 185

integrated Stock and Flow Model (SFMs) for
, 168

mathematical equation, for system variables
, 176–178

one-way analysis of variance
, 217

system boundary for
, 138

Economic risk variables

pairwise comparison matrix for
, 103

verbal ratings for
, 122

Edinburgh Tram Network (ETN) project
, 1, 15, 16–17, 77, 84, 123, 157, 250

basic information of
, 18

bridges built to accommodate
, 27

construction and civil engineering works
, 17, 25–26, 28

contractual disputes
, 28, 30–31

1871–1956 era
, 15–16

environment of
, 24

external stakeholders of
, 21–22

impact of bad weather conditions
, 36–37

internal stakeholders of
, 19–20

organization of
, 23

organizations and groups consulted during the EIA for
, 34

rework and adverse environmental impacts
, 35

specific risks impacting on project environment
, 38–39

stakeholder relationship map for
, 25

stakeholder’s attitude and influence on
, 23

STEEP risks
, 28

economic issues
, 39

environmental issues
, 33–35, 39

political issues
, 35–40

social issues
, 28–29, 38

technical issues
, 29, 32–33, 38–39

technical risks impacting on social and natural environments
, 40

traffic diversions
, 32–33

utility diversions for
, 27

Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract
, 67

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
, 33

Environmental Impact Assessment (Scotland) Regulations
, 1999, 33

Environmental Resource Management (ERM)
, 33

Environmental risk cluster
, 68–70, 92

Environmental risks in megaprojects
, 71

Environmental risks system
, 154–157

ANP inputs
, 195

causalities, for stock variables
, 157, 162

causal loop diagram for
, 155

dynamic simulation results and discussion
, 207, 209–210, 211–212

evaluation tests for
, 184

integrated SFMs for
, 169

mathematical equation, for system variables
, 179–180

one-way analysis of variance
, 217

system boundary for
, 139

Environmental risk variables

pairwise comparison matrix for
, 106

verbal ratings for
, 123

‘Everything Goes According to Plan’ (EGAP) principle
, 3

Feedback loop approach
, 281–282

Final mode ANP decision-making priorities

economic risks sub-cluster
, 116

Environmental risk sub-cluster
, 117

political risk variables
, 118

potential risks cluster
, 113

social risk sub-cluster
, 114

technical risk sub-cluster
, 115

Financial closure
, 68

Ideal priority value (IPV)
, 93, 95

Ideal risk priority indexes (IRPIs)
, 110

InterCity Express (ICE) project, in Germany
, 156

Likert scale
, 119

Liquidated damages (LDs)
, 67

Market risk
, 68

Maximum eigenvalue, calculating
, 53

MegaDS model
, 260, 282, 287

Megaproject

Big Dig project
, 2, 45

Danish Great Belt rail tunnel project
, 45

economic risks
, 64–68, 148–154

environmental risks
, 68–70, 154–157

InterCity Express (ICE) project
, 156

political risks
, 70–74, 157–162

problem with megaprojects
, 2–6

risks
, 2–5

social risks
, 59–61, 141–145

technical risks
, 61–64, 145–148

Train à Grande Vitesse (TGV) project
, 156

Model validation
, 250

integrated system model objective, importance of
, 254

integrated system models, methods for testing and validating
, 252–254

model behaviour, validating
, 258

behaviour mode sensitivity analysis
, 260, 274–280

behaviour reproduction test
, 258–259

disaggregation approach
, 282

feedback approach
, 281–282

manageable model size
, 284–287

numerical sensitivity analysis
, 259–260, 263–273

policy analysis, design and improvement
, 280–281

policy implementation
, 287

sensitivity analysis
, 259

simulation approach
, 282–284

stock and exogenous system entities for STEEP risks models
, 261–262

philosophical aspects of model validity
, 250–251

process
, 251–252

tests of suitability
, 255

boundary adequacy
, 255–257

dimensional consistency
, 257

extreme conditions
, 258

parameter verification
, 255

structure verification
, 255

validating the model structure
, 254

Multi-criterion decision-making (MCDM) methodology
, 48, 227

analytic hierarchical process (AHP)
, 48

analytic network process (ANP)
, 48, 227

criteria
, 48, 227

Multi-Utilities Framework Agreement (MUDFA)
, 17, 37

Normalized priority value (NPV)
, 93, 95

Numerical sensitivity analysis
, 259–260, 263–273

Operational validation
, 252

Operations and maintenance (O&M) agreement
, 68

Pairwise comparison matrix
, 119, 124

economic risk variables
, 103

environmental risk variables
, 106

political risk variables
, 107

social risk variables
, 98

technical risk variables
, 100

Parameter verification, of STEEP models
, 219, 255

Pattern-oriented policy analysis
, 281

Policy analysis, design and improvement
, 280–281

Political risk cluster
, 70–74

Political risks in megaprojects
, 75

Political risks system
, 157–162

ANP inputs
, 195

causalities, for stock variables
, 162, 163, 164

causal loop diagram for
, 160

dynamic simulation results and discussion
, 210, 212–216

evaluation tests for
, 185–186

integrated SFMs for
, 170

mathematical equation, for system variables
, 181–183

one-way analysis of variance
, 217

system boundary for
, 140

Political risk variables

final mode ANP decision-making priorities for
, 118

pairwise comparison matrix for
, 107

verbal ratings for
, 123

Potential risks
, 4–5, 43, 49, 51

political risk cluster
, 70–74

political risk variables
, 107, 118, 123, 214

political risks in megaprojects
, 75

political risks system
, 140, 157–162, 181, 210

unweighted super matrix for
, 111

verbal ratings for
, 120

weighted supermatrix for
, 112

Potential risks cluster
, 95

final mode ANP decision-making priorities for
, 113

potential risks sub-clusters
, 95–109

Problem with megaprojects
, 2

megaproject risk assessment
, 4–5

megaproject risks
, 2–3

new risk assessment framework
, 5–6

Project financing
, 64

Project manager
, 4–5, 56, 61, 63–64, 67, 80, 147, 201, 214, 221, 287

Project objectives cluster
, 93

Project risk management (PRM) facilities
, 5, 8, 231

Project risks
, 5, 68, 74, 80–81

Project risk systems model
, 131–140

initial model development
, 135–136

model causality
, 133–135

system boundaries
, 136–140

Realistic ‘construction time’
, 44

Respondent’s mean scores of importance (RMSI)
, 85, 86

potential risks
, 321–326

economic risks
, 309–314

environmental risks
, 315–320

social risks
, 297–302

technical risks
, 303–308

project objectives
, 291–296

Risk analysis framework
, 46

analytic network process (ANP) modelling route
, 48

ANP model structure development
, 50–51

consistency test
, 52–55

pairwise comparison
, 52

system dynamics (SD) modelling route
, 55–58

Risk assessment, megaproject
, 4–5

Risk assessment framework
, 5–6, 11, 223

Risk assessment matrix (RAM)
, 224

Risk clusters
, 58

economic risks
, 64

completion risks
, 67–68

market risk
, 68

environmental risks
, 68–70

political risks
, 70–74

social risks
, 59–61

technical risks
, 61–64

Risk interdependency matrix
, 93

potential risks cluster
, 95

potential risks sub-clusters
, 95–109

project objectives cluster
, 93

Risk management
, 4, 5, 12, 43, 67

Risk Priority Index (RPI)
, 55, 124–128, 255, 259, 260

Risk quantification
, 77

analysis of risk interdependency
, 77

adjustments of participants’ opinions
, 85

descriptive quantitative results and analysis
, 82–84

qualitative approaches
, 78–81

quantitative approach
, 81–82

standardized quantitative results and analysis
, 84–85

analytic network process (ANP) model
, 85–92

consistency test
, 119–124

pairwise comparison
, 92–93

risk interdependency matrix
, 93

potential risks cluster
, 95

potential risks sub-clusters
, 95–109

project objectives cluster
, 93

Risk Priority Index (RPI)
, 124–128

risk rating
, 119

supermatrix calculation
, 110–119

Risk rating
, 119

Risk simulation

project risk systems model
, 131–140

STEEP risks system
, 141–162

system validation
, 216, 218–219

system verification
, 162–163, 165

Risks ratings, deriving priorities for
, 120

Royal Assent
, 16

SDANP

framework
, 46, 47

methodology
, 1, 7, 11–12

practical guide for using
, 230

procedure, for risks reduction in megaprojects
, 228–229

risk assessment approach
, 225–226

tests for building confidence in integrated models
, 253–254

Sensitivity analysis
, 259

behaviour mode
, 260–280

numerical
, 259–260

Shandwick Place and Haymarket, disruption of
, 26

Social, technical, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) risks
, 1, 4–8, 10–12, 46, 50, 84, 85, 89–90, 123, 128–129, 250, 251, 252, 254, 255, 256, 258, 259

ANP inputs to
, 184, 195

boundary adequacy
, 219

causal loop diagram (CLD), on ETN project
, 132

dimensional consistency requirements
, 219

dynamic hypothesis of
, 135

dynamic simulations
, 184, 196–216

economic risks system
, 148–154

environmental risks system
, 154–157

evaluation tests for
, 170, 185–194

integrated SFMs for
, 165–169

model equation formulation
, 169–170, 184

one-way analysis of variance
, 217

parameter verification of
, 219

political risks system
, 157–162

risk types
, 139

SD equation representation
, 184

social risks system
, 141–145

STEEP factors
, 44, 46, 52, 58

STEEP models
, 254, 276

structural verification of
, 218

technical risks system
, 145–148

Social risk entry points
, 61

Social risks cluster
, 59–62

Social risks model
, 141, 144, 146, 255, 260

Social risks system
, 141

ANP inputs
, 195

causalities, for stock variables
, 144–145, 146

causal loop diagram for
, 141, 142

dynamic simulation results and discussion
, 196–198, 199, 202

evaluation tests for
, 185

integrated SFMs for
, 167

mathematical equation, for system variables
, 171–172

one-way analysis of variance
, 217

system boundary for
, 136

vicious cycle

of grievance prevention
, 143–144

of social risks generation
, 141–143

Social risk sub-cluster

final mode ANP decision-making priorities for
, 114

Social risk variables

pairwise comparison matrix for
, 98

verbal ratings for
, 121

Special purpose vehicle (SPV)
, 66, 67, 68

Stock and flow STEEP models
, 165–169

economic risk system
, 168

environmental risks system
, 169

political risks system
, 170

social risks system
, 167

technical risks system
, 167

Structural verification, of STEEP models
, 170, 218, 255

Structured interview questionnaire and participants
, 289–290

Suitability, tests of
, 255

boundary adequacy
, 255–257

dimensional consistency
, 257

extreme conditions
, 258

parameter verification
, 255

structure verification
, 255

Super Decisions Software
, 55, 95

Supermatrix calculation
, 110–119

System Design Services (SDS)
, 17

System dynamics (SD) approach
, 224, 227

System dynamics (SD) method
, 1–2, 5, 47, 55–58, 259

Technical risk cluster
, 61–64

Technical risks in megaprojects
, 65–66

Technical risks system
, 145–148

ANP inputs
, 195

causalities, for stock variables
, 148, 149, 150

causal loop diagram for
, 145, 147

dynamic simulation results and discussion
, 198, 201, 203, 205

evaluation tests for
, 185

integrated SFMs for
, 167

mathematical equation, for system variables
, 173–175

one-way analysis of variance
, 217

system boundary for
, 137

Technical risk sub-cluster

final mode ANP decision-making priorities for
, 115

Technical risk variables

pairwise comparison matrix for
, 100

verbal ratings for
, 121

Technical uncertainties
, 133–135

Total priority value (TPV)
, 93, 95

Total risk priority index (TRPI)
, 110

Traffic Regulation Orders (TROs)
, 257

Train a Grande Vitesse (TGV) project, in France
, 156–157

Transportation megaprojects
, 3, 5, 67, 77–78, 128, 145, 148, 152, 156, 161, 162, 201, 218, 231, 234, 254–255, 282

dynamics simulation models for
, 285–286

disaggregation of
, 283

Transport initiatives Edinburgh (tie)
, 16–17, 25, 28, 32, 33

Unweighted super matrix for potential risks
, 111

Uses tree diagrams

economic risks model
, 154

environmental risks model
, 159

political risks model
, 163

social risks model
, 146

technical risks model
, 150

technical uncertainties
, 133, 134

Validation

defined
, 216, 218

model. See Model validation

system
, 216, 218–219

Variation orders (VOs)
, 151

Vensim software
, 219, 257, 280, 288

Verbal ratings

economic risk variables
, 122

environmental risk variables
, 123

political risk variables
, 123

potential risks
, 120

social risk variables
, 121

technical risk variables
, 121

Verification

defined
, 218

parameter
, 219, 255

structure
, 218, 255

system
, 162–163, 165

Weighted quantitative score (WQS) method
, 49, 77–78, 85, 219, 255

Weighted supermatrix
, 110

potential risks
, 112