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Prospects for the euro-area in 2022

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PROSPECTS 2022

This forecast implies the continuation of this year's rapid recovery into 2022. However, it depends on some risks abating, particularly with regard to inflation, and hence…

COVID-19 and protests will shake up US cities

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UNITED STATES

These factors are stoking the urban civil unrest that has flared across the country in the last fortnight. What had seemed a practical matter of managing COVID-19 and…

France’s Macron seeks to relaunch economic reforms

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FRANCE

Among those policies are measures targeted at youth unemployment and social care for older people, aimed at attracting left-wing support. Most importantly, Macron has committed to…

Hungary cannot easily replace lost EU funding

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HUNGARY

EU finance ministers in response postponed decisions on paying Hungary EUR5.8bn under the post-COVID-19 recovery plan, and whether to freeze EUR7.5bn from the ‘cohesion’ funds due…

France’s regional results intensify presidential race

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FRANCE

Neither Macron’s La Republique en Marche (LREM) nor Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) managed to win any of the country’s 13 regions. The main winner was the centre-right Republican…

October elections are far from guaranteed in Haiti

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HAITI

Ever since a contested presidential election polarised the country in October last year, Haiti has been in a state of political gridlock. The electoral authority controversially…

Dialogue advances but threats mount in Venezuela

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VENEZUELA

Recent weeks have seen some progress toward agreement on opposition participation in National Assembly elections scheduled for year-end -- but this would include only a section of…

Prospects for the Levant in 2021

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PROSPECTS 2021

However, in 2021 they will all face two common challenges: recovering from major economic shocks in 2020 and reorienting to US policy shifts under a Biden presidency. From…