Dialogue advances but threats mount in Venezuela

Significance

Recent weeks have seen some progress toward agreement on opposition participation in National Assembly elections scheduled for year-end -- but this would include only a section of the opposition and not Guaido. Optimism about some form of consensual election process has been replaced by fears that Venezuela is on the brink of catastrophic implosion triggered by oil price collapse, coronavirus and emerging paramilitarism.

Impacts

• The government faces being overwhelmed by humanitarian and economic crises.
• Venezuela is catastrophically ill-positioned to deal with any coronavirus spread.
• Combined with US oil sanctions, the drastic fall in international oil prices will compound the already dire economic situation.