France’s regional results intensify presidential race

Significance

Neither Macron’s La Republique en Marche (LREM) nor Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) managed to win any of the country’s 13 regions. The main winner was the centre-right Republican Party (LR), to the extent that it hopes to overhaul Macron in the first round of next year’s presidential election.

Impacts

• If internal party pressure forces Le Pen to adopt a more hard-line stance, she risks alienating centre-right voters.
• Electoral considerations will make Macron wary of imposing future COVID-19-related restrictions.
• While pursuing pension reforms prior to 2022 could improve Macron’s reformist credentials, it risks provoking more social unrest.