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Burundi leader's defiance raises odds of escalation

Location:

BURUNDI

At least 18 people are known to have died in a series of protests that followed President Pierre Nkurunziza's April 25 announcement that he would run for a third term in June 26…

Ugandan intervention may not boost Congo’s security

Location:

CONGO-KINSHASA

The offensive comes after Uganda suffered multiple bomb attacks in October and November, which it blamed on ADF rebels. It also comes half a year into a military ‘state of siege’…

Algeria will carefully navigate Niger’s crisis

Location:

ALGERIA

Algeria has condemned Niger’s July 26 coup but also publicly opposed the threat of an armed intervention by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). It warns of a…

Russian A2/AD systems will undermine NATO credibility

Location:

NATO

The emergence of Russian A2/AD zones in the High North, the Baltic Sea, the eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea impacts NATO's ability to operate in key regions of interest to…

Local buy-in divides East Africa anti-terror efforts

Location:

EAST AFRICA

Kenya has experienced far more militant violence than neighbouring Ethiopia or Uganda, although the militant group has targeted all three countries, and all three engage in…

Erdogan prepares to intervene in Libyan civil war

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TURKEY/LIBYA

The deployment of Turkish troops to protect the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and intervene in Libya’s civil war looks increasingly likely. GNA Prime Minister…

Western politics may inflate Sahelian jihadi threat

Location:

SAHEL

The militancy phenomenon.

Ukraine raises questions about US use of force

Location:

UNITED STATES

Determination to avoid a direct clash between US and Russian forces limits Biden’s options for the Ukraine crisis. It also raises questions about the circumstances under which he…

Rwanda may only intervene in Burundi as a last resort

Location:

RWANDA/BURUNDI

Rwanda's stance on Burundi's crisis.

Talking up Ukraine-Russia war risk is destabilising

Location:

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Assessing warlike talk in Russia and Ukraine.