Burundi leader's defiance raises odds of escalation

Significance

At least 18 people are known to have died in a series of protests that followed President Pierre Nkurunziza's April 25 announcement that he would run for a third term in June 26 elections. Some 50,000 have fled to neighbouring countries amid a crackdown mainly by the ruling party's youth wing, Imbonerakure. On May 9, the president brought the situation to a potential head by ordering the army to dismantle the protesters' blockades. The EU, and separately Belgium, announced yesterday that they would suspend aid to Burundi.

Impacts

• If the situation escalates and the army does not intervene, Nkurunziza may extend his tenure by emergency rule.
• Absent talks over a transitional period, conditions for de-escalation may arise if the ruling party agrees on an alternative candidate.
• Regional states Rwanda and Uganda will emphasise the importance of popular legitimacy over constitutional compliance.