The deployment of Turkish troops to protect the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and intervene in Libya’s civil war looks increasingly likely. GNA Prime Minister Fayez Serraj met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul on December 15. Serraj and the Turkish authorities have created a detailed legal and institutional framework for partnership affecting not just Libya but also Turkey’s disputes with its neighbours over rights in the Eastern Mediterranean.
- A new round of EU sanctions on Libya could be on the way.
- United Arab Emirates and Egyptian support for Haftar will probably grow.
- A swift military resolution in Libya is unlikely, with Turkey preferring to deploy air power, including drones.