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Ukraine invasion will raise Estonian premier’s support

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ESTONIA

For Estonians, the war in Ukraine has awakened traumatic memories of Soviet invasion during the Second World War and generates great sympathy for Ukraine and anger at Russia, as…

Gabon's president will likely regain recognition

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GABON

Bongo's victory was tarnished by widespread allegations of electoral fraud and subsequent human rights violations; both he and Ping have submitted evidence of abuses to the…

Drivers of Algerian protests pose long-term challenges

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ALGERIA

The protests that started in February to object to plans by former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to stand for a fifth term show little sign of letting up, despite his…

Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

Although the challenges each country faces differ markedly, all are struggling to address the legacies of old conflicts that threaten to perpetuate new ones.

Prospects for Brazil in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

After a government change in January 2023 following a process clouded by doubts over the resilience of Brazilian democracy, key institutions have strengthened their position, and…

Moscow will keep North Caucasus from Ukraine spillover

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RUSSIA

As the war in Ukraine could end in catastrophic failure, any spike in the intensity of social unrest in the North Caucasus would have perilous consequences for Russia’s power…

Economic headwinds will buffet South Korea

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SOUTH KOREA

Unlike during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, South Korea now has strong fundamentals to confront external economic and political headwinds. However, President Yoon Suk-yeol…

EU’s Visegrad Four will not continue in current format

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EU

Poland may have resolved its rule-of-law dispute with the EU, whereas part of Hungary’s ‘cohesion’ funds are frozen. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has driven a wedge between Poland…

Assembly campaign will raise Venezuela tensions

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VENEZUELA

The build-up to Venezuela's December 6 elections shows continuity with conflictive electoral cycles of the past 15 years. Inconclusive opinion polls caution against a bullish…

Ontario debt may trigger a political backlash in 2018

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CANADA

Ontario's public debt.