Assembly campaign will raise Venezuela tensions

Significance

The build-up to Venezuela's December 6 elections shows continuity with conflictive electoral cycles of the past 15 years. Inconclusive opinion polls caution against a bullish opposition extrapolating popular rejection of President Nicolas Maduro at the national level to the local level. The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) may once again survive a tough campaign through opposition miscalculations.

Impacts

• The brief campaign period will be marked by intense competition.
• Dirty tricks, wild claims and hyperbole will dominate media coverage, exacerbating a climate of conflict.
• While the PSUV machine will lurch into action, the opposition risks divisive internal splits.