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EU’s Visegrad Four will not continue in current format

Monday, December 19, 2022

Significance

Poland may have resolved its rule-of-law dispute with the EU, whereas part of Hungary’s ‘cohesion’ funds are frozen. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has driven a wedge between Poland and Hungary, formerly close allies in resisting EU federalist tendencies, liberal values, immigration and the linkage of rule-of-law standards to EU funding.

Impacts

  • The lack of Visegrad Group cooperation poses risks to managing the energy crisis, sharing supplies and reaching solidarity agreements.
  • Hungary’s pro-Russian rhetoric may deter investment in the Visegrad four as the international trading system begins profound transformation.
  • The Visegrad split on Ukraine may political instability; Slovakia’s position is uncertain following the Heger government’s collapse.
  • The lack of an effective regional centre could strengthen Czech, Slovak and Polish dependence on the EU.
  • National exchange-rate fluctuations against the euro and dollar will make adopting the common currency more appealing in the longer term.

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