Search results

Evidence tilts towards Ukraine war likelihood

Location:

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Western leaders are talking to one another and Moscow in a bid to change Russian President Vladimir Putin's mind -- if he has in fact decided on an attack. If he plans an…

Russia and Iran likely to complete direct rail route

Location:

RUSSIA/IRAN

Sanctions have constrained east-west transit through Russia and revived its interest in north-south connections to Gulf ports and India. Moscow and Tehran, each keen to circumvent…

EU sanctions on Belarus exports raise default risk

Location:

BELARUS

Western sanctions imposed for Belarus's complicity in the Russian invasion of Ukraine have isolated the country. Much of its export trade is reduced or cut off entirely.

Ukraine's chances of a favourable conflict end recede

Location:

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

The military conflict in eastern Ukraine remains muted, but the breakdown of economic ties, trade, and supplies of power and water makes a political rapprochement look even more…

Kiir-Machar talks will not solve South Sudan conflict

Location:

SOUTH SUDAN

International stakeholders hope the meeting can restore momentum to stalled regional peace efforts. However, the bilateral format represents a reversion to the old mediation…

US-Russian talks offer uncertain path to de-escalation

Location:

RUSSIA/US

The December 7 virtual summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin was an attempt to reduce the risk of imminent conflict. The results, including an agreement to…

Russia will keep up EU periphery’s low-risk subversion

Location:

EUROPE

Russian attempts at destabilising Central-Eastern Europe.

US-China trade deal and tariff removal will recede

Location:

US/CHINA

With the United States and China each pressuring the other to comply to its preferred position, the tariffs may stymy their ongoing trade negotiations.

US WTO reform proposals will gain little traction

Location:

UNITED STATES

Tai will continue to make the Biden administration’s case that the WTO needs reform to make it fit for purpose in the 21st century. Opposition to reform will come from India and…

Fear of anti-India protests hurts Maldives government

Location:

MALDIVES

Solih’s government has departed from the pro-China diplomacy which Yameen pursued, reverting to the country’s long-standing ‘India First’ policy. Indian Foreign Minister S…