Russia and Iran likely to complete direct rail route

Significance

Sanctions have constrained east-west transit through Russia and revived its interest in north-south connections to Gulf ports and India. Moscow and Tehran, each keen to circumvent Western trade embargoes, are talking about completing railway sections needed to make the INSTC a continuous route.

Impacts

• Georgia will double down on promoting the west-east 'Middle Corridor' from Turkey to China.
• Azerbaijan is likely to secure Armenian agreement to a western corridor connecting it with Nakhichevan and Turkey.
• Armenia will try to promote itself as a possible trade corridor, despite difficult relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.