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Ukraine's chances of a favourable conflict end recede

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Significance

The military conflict in eastern Ukraine remains muted, but the breakdown of economic ties, trade, and supplies of power and water makes a political rapprochement look even more remote. Moscow had hoped for direct engagement with President Donald Trump's administration but little has happened, and the four-party (Russian-Ukrainian-German-French) talks process remains in place.

Impacts

  • Narrowing economic options will further limit independent decision-making by rebel leaders.
  • The French presidential election result and the likely outcome of German elections allow four-party 'Normandy format' talks to continue.
  • If Ukraine perceives continued Western support, it may act more assertively towards the rebels.
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