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Wary Gulf states will struggle for consensus on Iran

Location:

GULF STATES/IRAN

European-backed negotiations in Vienna to bring the United States and Iran back into compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal have changed the…

Iran-Saudi Arabia tensions will increase instability

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IRAN/SAUDI ARABIA

This followed a marked intensification of hostile verbal exchanges between Iranian and Saudi officials and religious leaders in the weeks leading up to the annual pilgrimage to…

India’s role in regional maritime security will grow

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INDIA

Separately, the IN’s presence in the Arabian Sea has increased markedly since December, in response to threats associated with the fallout from the Israel-Gaza war. Defence…

Emirati shift may intensify Yemen conflict

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YEMEN

This follows an unusual Huthi drone and missile attack against the United Arab Emirates (UAE, a partner in the coalition), which killed three people. The Huthis were responding to…

Soleimani’s death may further weaken Iran in Syria

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SYRIA

Iranian networks in Syria.

Russia will seek to benefit from the Israel-Hamas war

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RUSSIA

In the wake of the war between Hamas and Israel, Russia has positioned itself as an important player in the Middle East, which can leverage its working relationships with all the…

Oman will strengthen security amid Gulf tensions

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OMAN

With an ageing head of state, Oman must prepare for a post-Sultan Qaboos era, with some of its key policies at odds with those of other Gulf governments.

Obama will likely wait out Russia's Syria gambit

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US/RUSSIA

The Russian air campaign has mostly targeted rebels fighting against the Syrian regime rather than Islamic State group (ISG), a significant setback for President Barack Obama's…

Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah manoeuvring endangers Lebanon

Location:

PALESTINIANS/ISRAEL/LEBANON

The killing of Hamas leaders abroad follows existing Israeli policy. However, the greater significance stems from the challenge presented to the wider Iranian ‘Axis of…

Hezbollah could be Lebanon's dominant political force

Location:

LEBANON

On December 18, two months after Michel Aoun was elected president of Lebanon, Prime Minister Saad Hariri finally announced agreement on a ‘government of national accord’. The new…