Obama will likely wait out Russia's Syria gambit

Significance

The Russian air campaign has mostly targeted rebels fighting against the Syrian regime rather than Islamic State group (ISG), a significant setback for President Barack Obama's Syria policy.

Impacts

• Washington may see geopolitical dividends should Russia's military intervention become bogged down into an embarrassing stalemate.
• US inaction will encourage Saudi Arabia and Iran to escalate their own intervention in Syria and elsewhere in the region.
• Saudi-Iranian relations will play a greater role in a political settlement on Syria than those between Washington and Moscow.