Soleimani’s death may further weaken Iran in Syria
Friday, January 24, 2020
Subject
Iranian networks in Syria.
Significance
Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani played a key role in shaping the array of foreign and local Shia militias that supported the government of President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war from 2011. This was a complex operation involving the mobilisation of sympathetic clerics across the Shia world, who sponsored and recruited the various militias, as well as the selection of capable military leaders.
Impacts
- The Quds Force will seek multiple means of retaliating against the United States through covert operations and proxies.
- Iran will take a pragmatic approach to preserving key alliances, including with Russia and Syria.
- The IRGC might accelerate the redeployment of some militias from Syria to Yemen, Iraq or other more promising theatres.
- IRGC leaders will become more cautious in their travel plans, reducing their scope to deploy personal charisma in co-opting foreign Shia.