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Central Europe may cut rates despite high inflation

Location:

EASTERN EUROPE

Lower wholesale natural gas prices have improved balance-of-payments and fiscal positions and driven down inflation rates in Central Europe (CE). Financial markets are pricing in…

Ukrainian grain exports to threaten European cohesion

Location:

UKRAINE

Support for Ukraine among its closest neighbours has been strained by the diversion of Ukrainian grain to local markets, depressing prices for domestic producers. This has been…

Ukraine crisis will bring heavy costs for Europe

Location:

EU

The sanctions amount to a middle-of-the-road approach: leaders agreed to keep Russia in the SWIFT payment system and avoid targeting Russian energy exports. They will not cause…

Russia can expect only limited Chinese assistance

Location:

RUSSIA/CHINA

China's leadership has offered Russia general expressions of support given the adversities it faces, but this falls far short of wholehearted backing for its war in Ukraine…

Obdurate Putin will obstruct end to Ukraine war

Location:

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

These comments by one of Russia's less hawkish adversaries reflect pessimism about the chances of identifying a route to conflict resolution. Nonetheless, the first anniversary of…

EU oil ban will bite into Russia's budget and GDP

Location:

RUSSIA

Oil sales to the EU netted an average USD10bn in March and April; this revenue stream will be lost if European leaders can agree unanimously on a ban. Refined products as well as…

Diamond sanctions will have a modest impact on Russia

Location:

RUSSIA

The ban will be extended by the end of the year to include diamonds polished in third countries, lab-grown diamonds, as well as jewellery and watches containing diamonds. The new…

China unable to fix Russia’s energy problems

Location:

RUSSIA/CHINA

Beijing opposes Western sanctions on Russia but does not want to be harmed by them. Nevertheless, the prospect of a European embargo on Russian hydrocarbons could offer China the…

War in Ukraine will increase Turkey’s isolation

Location:

TURKEY

Simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections are due by mid-2023 at the latest. Opinion polls suggest that support for Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party are…

Prospects for Ukraine to end-2022

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2022

Prospects for Ukraine to end-2022.